Author Topic: 2014 draft thread  (Read 60176 times)

Jacksonian

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2014 draft thread
« on: July 17, 2013, 08:41:23 am »
Post 2014 draft musings and information here.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2014, 10:27:22 am by Jacksonian »
Goin' for a bus ride.

jbm

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Re: Early 2014 draft thread
« Reply #1 on: July 17, 2013, 12:55:28 pm »
Are there any other 1-1 candidates in this draft other than Rodon?  All I ever hear is Rodon, Rodon, Rodon.  The announcers in the CWS kept saying he would have gone 1-1 in the last two drafts, and it seems that all the internet chatter leads to him, like he is the slam-dunk choice for 1-1. 

I get that he is talented, but don't understand the hype that he is some can't miss star. 

morningwood75

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Re: Early 2014 draft thread
« Reply #2 on: July 17, 2013, 01:16:38 pm »
Are there any other 1-1 candidates in this draft other than Rodon?  All I ever hear is Rodon, Rodon, Rodon.  The announcers in the CWS kept saying he would have gone 1-1 in the last two drafts, and it seems that all the internet chatter leads to him, like he is the slam-dunk choice for 1-1. 

I get that he is talented, but don't understand the hype that he is some can't miss star. 

http://www.fresnobee.com/2013/07/15/3389156/clovis-slugger-shines-in-nyc.html


Jacob Gatewood rubbed elbows with the stars, got some face time on ESPN and outhomered some of baseball's best sluggers on a dream night for one of the Fresno area's most promising high school players.

The Clovis High senior-to-be and potential top pick in next year's amateur draft slugged 13 home runs to win the junior portion of Major League Baseball's Home Run Derby on Monday at New York's Citi Field. Gatewood finished with more homers than five of the eight Derby participants, including major league home run leader Chris Davis of the Baltimore Orioles.

"They treat you like big leaguers. I felt like I was a part of the American League All-Star team," Gatewood said by telephone from New York. "All the guys were congratulating me. It couldn't have been any better. It was the best experience of my life."

Using an aluminum bat, Gatewood blasted three of his homers into the third deck during a two-round performance that took place while ESPN was on commercial breaks. Fellow prep standout Kel Johnson of Palmetto, Ga., hit 11 homers............
He is committed to USC but recently was projected by Sports Illustrated as the No. 1 overall selection in the 2014 draft.

morningwood75

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Re: Early 2014 draft thread
« Reply #3 on: July 17, 2013, 01:18:37 pm »
Scout. com's Kiley McDaniel has Gatewood as the top HS prospect for 2014

http://sbb.scout.com/2/1306609.html



1. Jacob Gatewood, SS, Clovis HS (CA)

6'4/190, R/R, Previous Rank: 2, Draft Day Age: 18.70, USC commit

Scouting Report: Gatewood announced himself on the national prospect scene at last August's Area Code Games, the premier west coast showcase. He put on a show in BP and in one of the games he hit a tape measure homer to center field that traveled an estimated 430 feet. This spring he reportedly hit 95 mph on the mound and had appeared to have added another dimension to his game, but Gatewood has said he has no interest in pitching beyond high school. He has plenty of tools as a position player though, as his overall package is reminiscent of two premium 2012 draft picks, high school shortstops Carlos Correa (#1 overall, Astros) and Addison Russell (#11 overall, Athletics). Gatewood has bloodlines, too, as his father Henry was a catcher that went 11th overall to the Dodgers in the 1982 MLB Draft

Gatewood is one of those players that jumps out at you right away: a 6'4 shortstop with electric bat speed. His BP swing can get into lean back/uppercut/yank homers territory pretty quickly but if you had easy plus power at 17 years old, you'd probably do that, too. Gatewood's raw power comes from quick, strong wrists, leverage and bat speed; it's at least a 60 right now and may be a little better, with more on the way as he adds strength. That's the calling card and, as you might guess, I don't think he'll stick at shortstop long-term as he adds some of that weight but he has a longer, more narrow frame than most guys with his height/weight. Since he isn't a guarantee to add lots of weight, I can't rule out a shortstop future--his hands, arm, actions and footwork could all conceivably be enough--but he'd be a fringy shortstop at best as his lateral quickness isn't elite and his actions/release can get a little long for that play deep in the hole. I think his most likely big league defensive fit is third base where he could be above average. Gatewood is an above average straight line runner but likely settles in closer to average, so center field isn't really an option long-term.

The big question on Gatewood is how his bat will play. He has power-oriented swing and he's still growing into his long frame, so his mechanics broke down in a couple different ways in some game swings I saw last week. Off-speed stuff gives him some trouble and he'd often offer off-balance swings if he wasn't leaking his front hip or over-striding and making contact with his back leg off the ground. These issues led to less hard contact than you'd expect given the raw tools and there's already concerns he won't be a high average hitter with his bat waggle and long arms. Gatewood has good bat control but these other issues obscure that talent and he'd probably be best served to simplify and focus on hard line drives to the middle of the field. The elements are here for an average or better hit tool but very few guys this size hit for power and average at this age, so it wouldn't necessarily be obvious in games just yet.

morningwood75

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Re: Early 2014 draft thread
« Reply #4 on: July 17, 2013, 01:19:38 pm »
College guys-

NC State LHP Carlos Rodon
2013 stats: 132.1 ip, 94 h, 45 bb, 184 so, 2.99 era, 1.05 whip

Vandy RHP Tyler Beede
2013 stats: 101 ip, 64 h, 63 bb, 103 so, 2.32 era, 1.26 whip

NC State SS/CF Trea Turner
2013 stats: 368/455/553, 38 walks to 31 strikeouts, 30 stolen bases in 36 attempts

San Diego State RHP Michael Cederoth
2013 stats: 95.1 ip, 72 h, 48 bb, 109 so, 4.25 era, 1.26 whip

LSU RHP Aaron Nola
2013 stats: 126 ip, 83 h, 18 bb, 122 so, 1.57 era, 1.06 whip

Louisville RHP Nick Burdi (their closer last year but will supposedly be turned into their Friday night starter, hits 100 consistently)
2013 stats: 35.2 ip, 25 h, 13 bb, 62 so, 0.76 era, 1.07 whip

Hartford LHP Sean Newcomb
2013 stats: 72 ip, 53 h, 37 bb, 92 so, 3.75 era, 1.25 whip

morningwood75

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Re: Early 2014 draft thread
« Reply #5 on: July 17, 2013, 01:20:46 pm »
Perfect Game's Top Five High School Prospects

http://perfectgame.org/


1. Alex Jackson - C Rancho Bernardo HS, CA
Huge power, very good defensive catcher, Also play OF well. Has all the tools, outstanding at PG Nat. Games and Area Codes. Outstanding at PG National

2. Nicholas Gordon - SS Olympia HS, FL
Good athlete, really projects both ways, outstanding defensive SS stood out at WWBA, BCS and PG Nat., great bloodlines, up to 94 @ PG World

3. Tyler Kolek - RHP Shepherd HS, TX
Big RHP was up to 97 mph at PG National. Arm works well and off speed shows good potential

4. Jacob Gatewood - SS Clovis HS, CA
Good athlete, very projectable all around player, huge power potential. Very good at PG and Area Codes

5. Dylan Cease - RHP Milton HS, GA
Lightning fast arm! Fastball up to 97 mph at PG National

morningwood75

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Re: Early 2014 draft thread
« Reply #6 on: July 17, 2013, 01:26:26 pm »
Kiley McDaniel's top five prep arms in order are RHP Tyler Kolek, RHP Dylan Cease, RHP Touki Toussaint, RHP Grant Holmes, and RHP Luis Ortiz.

http://sbb.scout.com/2/1301426.html




It's too early to compare this class to previous year's classes as there's a whole year for guys to rise and fall and generally mature. That said, this class is so deep with premium arms, comparing them directly to the 2013 class today gives you an idea. After comparing notes with some people to make sure I wasn't crazy, it sounds like most scouts would take four if not all five of the guys listed below before the 2013 #22 overall pick Hunter Harvey. In addition, all of these guys are well ahead of where Harvey or late-rising #10 overall pick Phil Bickford were at the same stage and four of the five are over six months younger than #7 overall pick Trey Ball. (I think both Bickford and Ball were over-drafted for various reasons, so the #7 and #10 picks are not indicative of their talent, while Stewart and Harvey went where their talent dictated.) It's too early to tell whether any of the guys listed below will end up at the Kohl Stewart/Jameson Taillon/Dylan Bundy-level by draft day, but it's in play for more than one of them.

Why I Ranked The Top Three This Way

It's important to point out these five could be put in almost any order and the #2-#5 ranked players especially are all very similar. I went back and forth on Toussaint vs. Cease vs. Kolek before settling on this ranking. Touki is the most athletic, with a clean delivery, is about 6 months younger than the other two and has shown plus-plus stuff in the past. Cease is similar in size and stuff to Touki, isn't as obviously athletic and his off-speed stuff can be inconsistent but he showed much more present stuff in Minnesota with a very clean delivery and arm action. Kolek is by far the biggest, showed as much now stuff as anyone in Minnesota, has more projection and could be a monster when/if he grows into his frame. Ultimately, Kolek has more now stuff and I constantly harp on scouts for picking projectability over now stuff since projectability is sexier, looks better and is generally in the "selling jeans" box.

Touki's arm action and delivery are clean, but his whippy, athletic arm action creates velocity by putting a little more stress on his elbow than Kolek's or Cease's does, which is hard to see unless you slow the above video down to frame-by-frame speed. This isn't normally something I'd bring up, except when we're splitting hairs about super-high-end, super-young arms where projecting velocity/arm speed/health is the best tiebreaker. All that said, all three are still 17 and we're trying to pick which one will be better at 25, so stuff improving a notch in their next outing is enough to change the projection and, when it's this close, flipping this ranking.

jbm

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Re: Early 2014 draft thread
« Reply #7 on: July 17, 2013, 01:32:12 pm »
http://www.fresnobee.com/2013/07/15/3389156/clovis-slugger-shines-in-nyc.html


Jacob Gatewood rubbed elbows with the stars, got some face time on ESPN and outhomered some of baseball's best sluggers on a dream night for one of the Fresno area's most promising high school players.

The Clovis High senior-to-be and potential top pick in next year's amateur draft slugged 13 home runs to win the junior portion of Major League Baseball's Home Run Derby on Monday at New York's Citi Field. Gatewood finished with more homers than five of the eight Derby participants, including major league home run leader Chris Davis of the Baltimore Orioles.

"They treat you like big leaguers. I felt like I was a part of the American League All-Star team," Gatewood said by telephone from New York. "All the guys were congratulating me. It couldn't have been any better. It was the best experience of my life."

Using an aluminum bat, Gatewood blasted three of his homers into the third deck during a two-round performance that took place while ESPN was on commercial breaks. Fellow prep standout Kel Johnson of Palmetto, Ga., hit 11 homers............
He is committed to USC but recently was projected by Sports Illustrated as the No. 1 overall selection in the 2014 draft.

Thanks for the info.  Props to the kid for performing in that environment.  I'll never fully grasp just how cool that must have been for him.

morningwood75

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Re: Early 2014 draft thread
« Reply #8 on: July 17, 2013, 01:37:02 pm »
I think Rodon gets so much hype because when he is on he has two legitimate 70 pitches in his fastball and slider. He also bumped his strikeout rate from 10.60 per nine innings his freshman year to 12.51 per nine innings his sophomore year while lowering his walk rate from 3.22 per nine to 3.06 per nine.

pots

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Re: Early 2014 draft thread
« Reply #9 on: July 17, 2013, 01:37:24 pm »
Rodon had a few games he struggled in this last season, but still dominated
Led the NCAA in Ks by a lot (was tied for 3rd in his freshman year)

Outstanding in the CWS:
Dominated the first game
Second game on 3 days rest

Oh and he's a lefty. 

ETA.  IMO, if he improves at all next year he's 1-1 and it's not close
« Last Edit: July 17, 2013, 01:39:38 pm by pots »

morningwood75

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Re: Early 2014 draft thread
« Reply #10 on: July 17, 2013, 01:42:33 pm »
Thanks for the info.  Props to the kid for performing in that environment.  I'll never fully grasp just how cool that must have been for him.

No problem and I agree. Sports Illustrated compared him to Tulo and called him a once in a decade type talent. But then others think C/OF Alex Jackson is the best HS position player. This is a very strong class in general so teams picking high are going to be very happy most likely. The only weak group it seems like is the college position player group where SS/CF Trea Turner is the only legitimate guy in the running for 1-1 in the early going.

jbm

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Re: Early 2014 draft thread
« Reply #11 on: July 17, 2013, 01:47:04 pm »
Not sure I'd call the fastball a 70.  I sure don't think he feels that way either, based on how little he turns to it, and instead leans so heavily on his slider.  To me, that has to be the biggest concern: why doesn't he use his fastball more, or alternatively, why does he turn to his slider so much?  It's a rhetorical question as no one squares up his slider, but can he continue with that mix up the ladder?  That would give me pause.

morningwood75

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Re: Early 2014 draft thread
« Reply #12 on: July 17, 2013, 01:48:05 pm »
Rodon had a few games he struggled in this last season, but still dominated
Led the NCAA in Ks by a lot (was tied for 3rd in his freshman year)

Outstanding in the CWS:
Dominated the first game
Second game on 3 days rest

Oh and he's a lefty. 

ETA.  IMO, if he improves at all next year he's 1-1 and it's not close

I agree with this. Rodon did have some shoulder pain this past season, though, and if he struggles a bit or anything flares up next season then guys like Beede, Gatewood, Jackson, and Turner could bump him from the top spot.

morningwood75

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Re: Early 2014 draft thread
« Reply #13 on: July 17, 2013, 01:54:33 pm »
Not sure I'd call the fastball a 70.  I sure don't think he feels that way either, based on how little he turns to it, and instead leans so heavily on his slider.  To me, that has to be the biggest concern: why doesn't he use his fastball more, or alternatively, why does he turn to his slider so much?  It's a rhetorical question as no one squares up his slider, but can he continue with that mix up the ladder?  That would give me pause.

McDaniel had Beede rated above Rodon before Rodon's strong finish to the season. Here's what McDaniel wrote...

http://sbb.scout.com/2/1291189.html


Given what I know right now, Rodon and Beede would both rank behind Stanford RHP Mark Appel and Oklahoma RHP Jonathan Gray, the top two prospects in this year's draft, and be in the same range as Nevada RHP Braden Shipley, a projected top 10 pick in my most recent mock draft. As you can read below, Rodon has the upside to be in the class of Appel and Gray if he regains the form of his freshman year. The depth of the 2013 and 2014 college pitching crops look pretty similar, but what makes 2014 a superior overall draft class is the high ceiling prep talent.

Rodon was the big name in this group entering the spring, so I'll start with him. I saw him in late March this season an he told me after I watched a disappointing start (from a scouting perspective) that he's had soreness in the area around his throwing shoulder all spring and volunteered his velocity had been down all season. In the game I saw, he flashed a 94-96 mph heater with a plus slider in the first (roughly the stuff that gave him buzz as a freshman as a slam dunk #1 overall pick for 2014) and was 89-92 mph with a solid-average slider and diminished command the rest of the game. I'm told this has happened most of the season and he acknowledged as much. Rodon flashes two 65 or 70 pitches when he's right but his fringy changeup, height, lack of projection, lack of standout athleticism and vanishing stuff all are big hurdles to consistently showing and commanding that knockout stuff that could make him the #1 overall pick. Rodon is now the second-best college pitcher in the class for me right now, but, much like Sean Manaea in this year's draft, his stuff/health will be talked about a lot and if he can get things straightened out, he'll shoot to the top of this list.

After opting not to sign out of a Massachusetts high school as the 21st overall pick of the Blue Jays in the 2011 Draft, Tyler Beede was instantly a front-runner to go #1 overall in the 2014 Draft. He's slowly made progress for the Commodores, where he works 91-93, hitting 94 mph with a changeup that flashes plus at 79-82 mph and a slider he's added since he got to campus that also flashes plus at times, better than his average loopier curveball he used as a freshman. Beede could use more consistency to his stuff and his command comes and goes--not quite the pinpoint location you'd like to see for a top 5 pick. He's a soft #1 college pitcher right now as he has some work to do and there's two pitchers below him that with a couple strong summer outings could jump ahead of him.

The big name newcomer to the top of the list is Hartford lefty Sean Newcomb. Similar to Indiana State LHP Sean Manaea's rise last year, multiple sources have predicted Newcomb will have a coming-out party this summer with Team USA, with one scout saying he thinks Newcomb will go in the top 10 picks next June. Why are they so sure? The 6'5, 240 pound lefty hit 95 last summer in a very short stint on the Cape and has hit 97 this spring with comparisons to Jon Lester, if you're into that sort of thing. His upside is right there with Rodon and if he can show it with positive results over the summer, he could easily enter the spring as my top college pitcher, which is exactly what Manaea did before his current troubles.

morningwood75

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Re: Early 2014 draft thread
« Reply #14 on: July 17, 2013, 02:05:46 pm »
More on Rodon...

http://www.newsobserver.com/2013/05/20/2905967/nc-state-pitcher-carlos-rodons.html

Avent said the decision to rest the southpaw this past fall had an effect. Rodon pitched 114 2-3 innings for the Pack as a freshman, when he was the ACC pitcher of the year and everybody’s All-American, then another 19 innings for USA Baseball’s Collegiate National Team in competition last summer in Cuba and The Netherlands.

"He accumulated too many innings," Avent said. "I think in the shutdown he lost some preparation in the fall that hurt him in the spring, especially in the beginning."

Rodon and Turner again have been selected to play for the Collegiate National Team this summer, but Avent noted of the plans for Rodon, "We probably won’t shut him down next fall."

Rodon said he didn’t throw until late-December and didn’t throw off a mound until mid-January, saying, "That’s when I got my arm going again."

Mostly, Rodon did some hitting in fall ball and spent time improving his conditioning – running, lifting weights, cardiovascular work.

"All the fun stuff everybody loves to do," he said, grinning.

But Rodon now appears to be back in form on the mound, back in "beast mode," as he calls it. In his past five starts, he has allowed 11 earned runs in 39 2-3 innings, with 52 strikeouts and 11 walks.

Against Florida State, Rodon had a pitch clocked at 101 mph. He has been strong late in games, his velocity remaining high.

"It took a while to come back and get the arm strength," he said. "Now I’m seeing the ‘velo’ I had last year, which is good to see."


http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130617&content_id=50878950&c_id=mlb

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Re: Early 2014 draft thread
« Reply #15 on: July 19, 2013, 09:24:43 am »
All I ever hear is Rodon, Rodon, Rodon. 

I thought the "Rodon detection" scare passed a few years ago.
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Re: Early 2014 draft thread
« Reply #16 on: July 19, 2013, 10:04:20 am »
Are there any other 1-1 candidates in this draft other than Rodon?  All I ever hear is Rodon, Rodon, Rodon.  The announcers in the CWS kept saying he would have gone 1-1 in the last two drafts, and it seems that all the internet chatter leads to him, like he is the slam-dunk choice for 1-1. 

I get that he is talented, but don't understand the hype that he is some can't miss star. 

Kind of like me hearing "Appel, Appel, Appel" for 2 years. And then they went out and got him this year.

astrosfan76

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Re: Early 2014 draft thread
« Reply #17 on: July 19, 2013, 11:38:58 am »
And Rodon pitched last night against the Cuban National Team (?), throwing 3 1/3, giving up 1 hit and 1 walk with 4 Ks.  Was 92-94 (96 in 1st), nasty mid/upper 80s SL, low 80s CH.

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Re: Early 2014 draft thread
« Reply #18 on: July 23, 2013, 01:56:46 am »
We've opened up a 3 1/2 game lead on the Fish for the 1:1 pick.
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morningwood75

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Re: Early 2014 draft thread
« Reply #19 on: July 23, 2013, 02:35:28 am »
We've opened up a 3 1/2 game lead on the Fish for the 1:1 pick.

The Marlins are bringing up two of their best position player prospects in Yelich and Marisnick while sending Ozuna and Dietrich back down to the minors. I'm curious to see how those guys play.