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Author Topic: Very strange stat  (Read 1303 times)
OregonStrosFan
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« Reply #20 on: April 26, 2012, 10:49:13 AM »

Actually team run differential versus opponents is the single most important stat that can me measured in this game.  It just needs to be measured on a per-game basis.

Friggin' awesome!
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EasTexAstro
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« Reply #21 on: April 26, 2012, 10:57:16 AM »

Does anyone think the small sample size might have an effect on the numbers being skewed?

They will be on the bad end of some blowouts, most likely, which will even things out. Either that, or they will start being on the winning end of more close games.

I'm thinking the blowouts are more likely.

The Pythagorean record really doesn't tell anyone much anyway, even after a full season. That run differential in each game, though? Lots.
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Waldo
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« Reply #22 on: April 26, 2012, 11:25:25 AM »

Actually team run differential versus opponents is the single most important stat that can me measured in this game.  It just needs to be measured on a per-game basis.

What the hell, nominated.
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Reuben
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« Reply #23 on: April 26, 2012, 11:51:32 AM »

Does anyone think the small sample size might have an effect on the numbers being skewed?

They will be on the bad end of some blowouts, most likely, which will even things out. Either that, or they will start being on the winning end of more close games.

I'm thinking the blowouts are more likely.

The Pythagorean record really doesn't tell anyone much anyway, even after a full season. That run differential in each game, though? Lots.
I think run-differential is interesting, and I do see a lot of positive signs from the offense this year, but I think Noe and others make a really good point: it's about driving in runs when you need it most. They piled on runs against the Nats because Davey Johnson left Tom Gorzelanny in there to take a beating and save the rest of the bullpen. Scoring runs hasn't come so easily off of the Axfords and Kershaws and so on of the league, and time will tell if the losing record thus far is mainly because they've faced a lot of tough pitchers in close games, or is it that too many of the Astro hitters (*coughJohnsoncough*) have a terrible approach in those situations, and they're trying to "do too much" and swinging at terrible pitches (or letting hittable ones go by).

Not to leave the pitchers off the hook for their part in the close-game Ls... it will be interesting to see how things shake out with this staff. So far, pretty mixed results.
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« Reply #24 on: April 26, 2012, 12:43:49 PM »

Houston Astros have a run differential of +8 and a W-L of 7-12.



It's just a sample size thing.  1 of 2 things is going to happen over 162 games, either the run differential is going to correct itself or the W/L will correct itself.  Maybe not completely, but mostly.  It would be amazing if the Astros finished +68 runs and 102 losses (their current pace).
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Andyzipp
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« Reply #25 on: April 26, 2012, 12:44:37 PM »

It's just a sample size thing.  1 of 2 things is going to happen over 162 games, either the run differential is going to correct itself or the W/L will correct itself.  Maybe not completely, but mostly.  It would be amazing if the Astros finished +68 runs and 102 losses (their current pace).

That's a 4 game improvement!
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« Reply #26 on: April 26, 2012, 12:47:27 PM »

That's a 4 game improvement!


I rounded down.  Could be 3
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Andyzipp
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« Reply #27 on: April 26, 2012, 01:12:40 PM »

I rounded down.  Could be 3

That's a 3 game improvement!

ROTROTROT!
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MRaup
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« Reply #28 on: April 26, 2012, 03:24:23 PM »

That's a 3 game improvement!

ROTROTROT!

I was wondering what that smell was...
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Fredia
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« Reply #29 on: April 26, 2012, 06:25:55 PM »

have you seen altuve and jd stats
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VirtualBob
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« Reply #30 on: April 27, 2012, 12:10:52 AM »



No ... Did you lose them?
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