Positional Analysis - Corner Infield

[VirtualBob]

Spring will be here very soon, so I could not resist the temptation to dig into my notes from last year along with various scouting resources (none of the “insider” variety) and try to see who will end up where when the national anthem sounds for real.  This post deals with corner infielders.

As far as I can tell, there are 23 players under Astros control that can be seen primarily as corner infielders.  This includes Carlos Lee and Matt Downs along with a few guys at lower levels who can also play other positions.  Additionally, some of the guys included in the middle infielder analysis can also play 3B and may end up there eventually.  There are probably ~15 slots on full season clubs … bearing in mind that this is a good source of DH candidates, but some leagues have lower roster limits as well.

Carlos is a given at 1B this year, but the other two slots (3B and 6th IF) shape up as one of the most interesting battles of the spring (the other being 5th OF).  Jimmy Paredes has to be the favorite to return at 3B, but given Lutnow’s recent comments, I could see a big spring by some combination of CJ, Brett Wallace and Marwin Gonzalez forcing Paredes to AAA.  Why Gonzalez?  I figure Matt Downs is pretty close to a “lock” and his ability to play 2B becomes more valuable if the Astros decide to carry the Rule 5 pick.  As noted elsewhere, Johnson & Wallace are really on the ropes, though I think CJ’s superior versatility gives him the inside track.

AAA will present some interesting challenges.  Kody Hinze probably needs to move up … if for no other reason than to make room for Jonathan Singleton.  I have him splitting time with Brett Wallace at 1B & DH, with free agent Scott Moore at 3B.  CJ may end up here though (in which case Moore will probably be gone) and guys like Thurston or even Sanchez could figure here as well.

I think Corpus Christi will be pretty interesting this year with Singleton at 1B and Jonathan Meyer at 3B (among many other prospects around the diamond).  The fans deserve a break after last year!  I suppose Hinze might end up here (mostly at DH), but I predict that the “extra” infielder (if needed) will come from James Van Ostrand, Erik Castro or David Flores.  I doubt if any of that trio is guaranteed a roster spot anywhere, though.

Telvin Nash figures to step up to Lancaster and make up for some time he lost at the beginning of last year to a hamate bone injury.  Mike Kvasnicka will probably hold down 3B.  “Extra infielder” candidates include Castro, Flores and maybe Tyler Burnett.  If Andrew Simunic ends up here again, his versatility could free up a spot, though.

1B in Lexington is a bit of a question mark.  Burnett will probably repeat, but I have this inkling that they will push Chase Davidson.  Since Burnett also had a few starts at 3B last year, the two may split 1B with Davidson getting some starts at DH and Burnett backing up Matthew Duffy, who I expect to get his first full-season experience as the starter at 3B.  Rafael Valenzuela and Justin Shults would be the most likely candidates to start at Lexington if Burnett makes the Lancaster roster.

age	name	2011	2012
35	Carlos Lee	Houston (LF/1B)	Houston – 1B
23	Jimmy Paredes	CC/Hou	Houston – 3B
28	Matt Downs	Houston	Houston – PH/util
27	Chris Johnson	Hou/OKC	Houston (or OKC – 3B? or traded?)
25	Brett Wallace	Hou/OKC	OKC – 1B/DH (or Hou? or traded?)
28	Scott Moore	FA	Oklahoma City – 3B
24	Kody Hinze	Lan/CC	Oklahoma City – DH/1B
21	Jonathan Meyer	Lancaster	Corpus Christi – 3B
20	Jonathan Singleton	Lancaster	Corpus Christi - 1B
27	James Van Ostrand	Corpus Christi	CC? released?
25	David Flores	CC/Lan	CC? Lan? Cut?
24	Erik Castro	Lan (time on DL)	CC? Lan? Cut?
21	Telvin Nash	Lexington	Lancaster – 1B
23	Mike Kvasnicka	Lexington	Lancaster – 3B
22	Tyler Burnett	Lexington	Lexington – 1B (or Lan?)
24	Justin Shults	GCL	SS (or maybe Lex?)
22	Chase Davidson	Gre/TC	Lexington 1B (?)
24	Rafael Valenzuela	Gre/TC	SS or maybe Lex
23	Zach Johnson	Tri-City	SS
23	Jesse Wierzbicki	Greeneville	SS
20	Darwin Rivera	Greeneville	SS
20	Max Ayarza	GCL	SS
20	Kyle Redinger	GCL	SS

[moriartp]

Telvin Nash at Lancaster. The beast at Tanagra.

[Reuben]

Thanks, this is a great, handy write-up. The HOU 3B dilemma will be interesting. It's hard for me to see Paredes, Downs, and CJ all being on the club... unless they expect Downs to also be the 5th OF? In that scenario they could platoon Schafer/Bourgeois in CF and Bogusevic/Downs in RF... not sure if Downs can handle the OF after his cameos there last year, but that would allow them to have CJ (or Wallace) and MarGon plus Downs as IF backup options.

[VirtualBob]

.... It's hard for me to see Paredes, Downs, and CJ all being on the club... unless they expect Downs to also be the 5th OF? ...

You are probably right ... there were a lot of permutations I considered.  I doubt Downs will count as OF5, though.  I started with the most likely (or maybe just my most hopeful) middle infield situation in which Gonzalez makes the team.  In that case, I think Downs is a lock at 'util' and 3B is Paredes' to lose.  CJ would have to have a great spring to beat out Paredes imo.

If Marwin is marked 'return to sender', then that improves Sanchez' chances, since they probably ought to have someone who can find the SS position.  In that scenario, i think Downs is a little less than a lock, but CJ is still the guy who has to force the issue ... either sending Paredes back to AAA for more seasoning (which could happen) or beating out Downs as the backup corner infielder and regular PH.  

I also think they may go with some combination of Downs & Paredes as "emergency SS" if Marwin doesn't make it with the idea that Sanchez (and others) are only a phone call away if there is an injury.  I guess that's why I ended up giving CJ a better chance to make the club than Sanchez, but in reality it is hard to separate middle & corner infielders cleanly ... 3B & 2B (or even 3B & SS) have always been more interchangeable than 1B & anything.  I think we have the rise of fantacrap to thank for the over-simplification.

[VirtualBob]

With CJ and Bret both hitting well and Paredes suffering some nagging injury problems, I am rethinking my roster predictions here.  I am beginning to think that CJ will start the season at 3B in Houston with Paredes either on the DL or at AAA (with an open ticket if he is needed ... I expect they would rather have him play every day in Oklahoma than ride the pine in Houston).  That may leave Downs & Wallace in the best position to win the backup positions.  I think Downs even spent some time at SS in one ST game, though the thought of him being any more than an emergency option is a bit scary.  I figure they will either trade for the rights to Gonzalez and put him at AA/AAA level or send him back to Boston.  Sanchez seems to me the only other candidate for a roster spot in the infield, and he may be a better choice than Wallace.  At least all four positions would be covered reasonably well with Downs & Sanchez as backup.

Dare we hope that the ST resurgence will generate trade interest in Wallace or Johnson??  I know I have been a doubter on that front, but it suddenly looks like more of a possibility.

[Travis]

Thanks for compiling the list! One other thing--Kvasnicka switched to catcher this spring, right? Any idea who will be the Lancaster and Lexington 3Bs?

[Jacksonian]

Thanks for compiling the list! One other thing--Kvasnicka switched to catcher this spring, right? Any idea who will be the Lancaster and Lexington 3Bs?

Duffy will likely start at one of those places.

[VirtualBob]

Duffy will likely start at one of those places.

I agree.  I realize that I slotted Duffy in at 3B in Lexington, but left him off the long list.  With Kvasnicka moving back to catcher, I am not sure whether he still moves up to Lancaster or whether he repeats Lex.  Either way, I think 3B at Lancaster is where the uncertainty lies.  Tyler Burnett got some PT at 3B last year, and is probably ready for Lancaster.  They could also bring back Erik Castro for a repeat season.  He has plenty of potential but missed most of last season due to injury.  And at 24 years old when the season starts, he would be a bit old for A-ball.  There is even an outside chance they jump Duffy to Lan, but I'm still betting on Lex.

The big winner in terms of PT with Kvas moving to catcher is probably Chase Davidson.  I see him playing every day at 1B now.  Whether Burnett is bumped to Lan or jumped by Duffy, I expect him to plat mostly 3B.