2012 draft

[astrosfan76]

Here's the writeup of BA's trip to see Buxton (w/ video of BP and his ABs).  I'm not an expert at breaking down swings (or judging hitters, period), so what do you guys think of him?

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/04/game-report-byron-buxton-with-video/

[juliogotay]

Here's the writeup of BA's trip to see Buxton (w/ video of BP and his ABs).  I'm not an expert at breaking down swings (or judging hitters, period), so what do you guys think of him?

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/04/game-report-byron-buxton-with-video/

Not trying to pass myself off as any kind of expert but he doesn't have alot of extraneous movement which I believe to be a good thing. Very natural looking swing, looks very athletiic, which you'd expect with his tools. I don't think his swing would have to be tinkered with much by coaches.

[OregonStrosFan]

Klima (Baseball Prospect Report fka Baseball Beginnings) on Appel (w/ video). LINK

[Travis]

Keith Law in a chat today:

Joel (Bham)

Could you give your best guess on who the 1-5 draft picks will be based on the teams and what you have heard rumored? Not who they SHOULD pick, but who you thing they WILL pick. Thanks!

Klaw  (1:49 PM)

Buxton, Zimmer, Zunino, Appel, Gausman. But Houston is the big pivot here and Luhnow has just started to go out and see the candidates. Buxton could go anywhere from 1-6. Correa could go 1. Zimmer has been 90-92 the last two weeks and if the Twins don't take him at 2, he could fall to 6 or lower. It's really up in the air - as it is every year at this time.

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/43463

[astrosfan76]

Gausman with a gritty performance against a tough Kentucky offense:  7 IP 10 H 4 R/ER 1 BB 11 K

Some reports had him hitting triple digits.

[jbm]

The BA guys interviewed Buxton last night on their radio show. Nothing from the interview of note: he is a high school kid from the middle of nowhere Georgia who doesn't face good competition. He is committed to Georgia and is happy going there.  He feels he has a good glove, arm and speed, but needs to work on hitting, mainly driving the ball into gaps.

Manuel said with the uncertainty surrounding a high schooler, he still expects the Astros to take a college player.  This wasn't said in a critical way.

[astrosfan76]

Manuel said with the uncertainty surrounding a high schooler, he still expects the Astros to take a college player.  This wasn't said in a critical way.

I wouldn't really blame them, at this point.  Had Giolito stayed healthy, I was hopeful he could have been selected, but he also seemed to be a safer pick (and would move fairly quickly).  Still could be, I guess, but that ship (#1 this year) seems to have passed.  Buxton seems like he could become a good player, but I wouldn't blame them for picking a college player.  Unfortunately, they all seem to have warts, also.

[Reuben]

I wouldn't really blame them, at this point.  Had Giolito stayed healthy, I was hopeful he could have been selected, but he also seemed to be a safer pick (and would move fairly quickly).  Still could be, I guess, but that ship (#1 this year) seems to have passed.  Buxton seems like he could become a good player, but I wouldn't blame them for picking a college player.  Unfortunately, they all seem to have warts, also.

What about Zunino? I've read a lot about what a great year he's having, how he's a team leader, good with the pitchers, etc., and seen him referred to as a "safe" (and therefore presumably "unexciting") pick. What's the knock on him going #1, just that he doesn't have "superstar" written all over him as much as "above-average"?

[jbm]

I wouldn't really blame them, at this point.  Had Giolito stayed healthy, I was hopeful he could have been selected, but he also seemed to be a safer pick (and would move fairly quickly).  Still could be, I guess, but that ship (#1 this year) seems to have passed.  Buxton seems like he could become a good player, but I wouldn't blame them for picking a college player.  Unfortunately, they all seem to have warts, also.

I am in no position to evaluate these guys, but I do think the system is deeper and healthier than is commonly believed. Therefore, I think they can afford the risk of missing on a higher ceiling player.  That said, I'm expecting them to settle on a less risky college player.

[astrosfan76]

I am in no position to evaluate these guys, but I do think the system is deeper and healthier than is commonly believed. Therefore, I think they can afford the risk of missing on a higher ceiling player.  That said, I'm expecting them to settle on a less risky college player.

I think that we have a deep enough system that we can afford to let a guy develop, but missing on the #1 pick would hurt any system.  Of course, it wouldn't affect the other players in the system, but you're passing up a lot of really good players if you pick the wrong guy, a lot of guys who would be your top prospect.  I don't know enough about anyone to say if one of the top guys is right or wrong, though.

[pots]

What about Zunino? I've read a lot about what a great year he's having, how he's a team leader, good with the pitchers, etc., and seen him referred to as a "safe" (and therefore presumably "unexciting") pick. What's the knock on him going #1, just that he doesn't have "superstar" written all over him as much as "above-average"?

Read one article that described his defense as Ausmus like.  Seen a few lists that have him as 1/1.  He's my guess at who the Astros take (popped his 11th homerun of the season yesterday).  None of the pitchers standout, and I can't see them taking a risk with Buxton.  

[MusicMan]

Sickels sticking with Gausman to Astros in his latest mock

[astrosfan76]

Sickels sticking with Gausman to Astros in his latest mock

I could see it.  He'll have as many chances as anyone down the stretch to prove his worth, with several big games in the mix.  The talent is definitely there.

[Reuben]

Sickels sticking with Gausman to Astros in his latest mock

And he echos the rumors about them wanting to go with a college player "since it will take them less time to reach the majors and none of the high schoolers have truly elevated themselves over the college crop".

[astrosfan76]

Couple of chats today, courtesy of PerfectGame and BA.  Some of the more interesting notes:

-The President (or something) of PG had a writeup comparing Buxton to Correa, which they posted.  He explained that while most like Buxton more, he was firmly in the Correa camp.  Outside of speed, he grades Correa (a shortstop out of Puerto Rico) as superior in every tool.  He sees Buxton as a 3-tool guy with a chance to hit, but he's pretty bearish on his power being a tool.  If Buxton would show some power, it would make it close.  Either way, he still sees Buxton as a great talent. 

On Correa:

As good as Buxton’s arm is, no position player that we have ever seen has a better arm than Correa. He plays shortstop and is very smooth. Watching him throw across the infield is a real eye opener. Yes, it’s possible he will simply get too big for the position at some point, but so what. He profiles as one of the top 3B in the game. Correa can hit, he can hit top level pitching and he can hit it with outstanding power.

Goes on to say that Correa is the closest of those compared to A-Rod to being that good.  Pretty high praise.

-PG sees Gausman, Zimmer, Appell, and Buxton all having about 20% of going 1/1 with the other 20% being the field.  FWIW, they've heard from multiple sources that Zunino is not in the mix. 

-If given the pick, Callis would choose Buxton (says he's the best player), Rawnsley would go Zunino, Gausman, then Correa.  Both see Gausman as top pitching prospect right now.

Lots of other good stuff in the chats, especially the PG one.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1335368923

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=6910

[astrosfan76]

Weekend performances for some of the top college guys:

Appel-7 IP 8 H 1 R/ER 0 BB 10 K (5th 10K game; leads PAC in K's)
Zimmer-7 IP 5 H 1 R/ER 2 BB 10 K

FWIW, Zimmer and Appel have near-identical ERA of 2.72 and 2.73, respectively.

Gausman-6 IP 10 H 5/3 R/ER 0 BB 9 K - In his defense, many of the hits were of the infield variety and he had some pretty shoddy defense behind him.
Wacha-8 IP 4 H 0 R 2 BB 9 K (leads this group w/ a 2.22 ERA)

[astrosfan76]

An interesting wrinkle in the discussion:  Giolito was cleared to begin throwing today.  I don't know if his season is over, but probably will be by the time he'd be game-ready.  Now the question becomes, how much of his stock can he regain over the next month?  I'm doubting he regains his potential 1/1 stock, but how high will teams be willing to go on him?

[Reuben]

In a Draft Chat up at BA, John Manuel was asked if the Astros were likely to take Gausman; he explains that he prefers Gausman to the other college pitchers, then adds "I do believe, though, that the gap between Buxton and the rest of the class is significant enough that the Astros are going to wind up going Buxton unless one of those college RHPs separates himself from the pack in the next month."

[astrosfan76]

Zimmer to miss his start this weekend, due to a hamstring issue.

Zimmer, a 6-foot-4, 220-pounder, tweaked his right hamstring while fielding a bunt last week in his 10-strikeout, seven-inning outing against Brigham Young. Earlier in the week, Dons coaches indicated Zimmer was physically about 85 percent, and they expected him to start, but he hasn't progressed as they'd hoped. He's expected to return to action next weekend.

Doesn't sound serious, but the coaches are playing it safe.  I'm sure there are a few teams who are thankful for that.

[astrosfan76]

I've been reading pessimism that the club will actually draft Buxton 1/1, but Luhnow hasn't given up on the idea.  According to this video, Luhnow personally scouted him very recently.

http://www2.wsav.com/sports/2012/may/02/applings-buxton-looks-forward-mlb-draft-ar-3713094/