2012 draft

[astrosfan76]

Just curious (for anyone): How many players, realistically, do you think are in contention for the #1 pick?

Well, it could depend on who you ask. Different pundits will have different opinions, but I guess it really boils down to who the Astros like. Right now, I would guess Appel, Marrero, and Giolito are the main guys, with Gausman, McCullers, and Buxton being a legitimate part of the discussion. I think I've heard all those names linked to them, with the possible exception of Gausman.

[MusicMan]

The one run was inherited in the 8th.  I don't know how strong of an offensive team Texas is, but results-wise, he's making his case.

My initial impression is that this is a very weak Texas team offensively.  Of course, losing two of your top players for the season before a pitch is thrown will hurt any team.

[austro]

My initial impression is that this is a very weak Texas team offensively.  Of course, losing two of your top players for the season before a pitch is thrown will hurt any team.

Only one of those players (Walla) was involved in the offense.

I think Augie is in a tough place: his program is sufficiently elite that he can recruit extremely well-regarded prospects, but a significant percentage of those recruits wind up accepting pro contracts. It makes one wonder whether he might actually be better off by recruiting slightly less attractive prospects.

[juliogotay]

Well, it could depend on who you ask. Different pundits will have different opinions, but I guess it really boils down to who the Astros like. Right now, I would guess Appel, Marrero, and Giolito are the main guys, with Gausman, McCullers, and Buxton being a legitimate part of the discussion. I think I've heard all those names linked to them, with the possible exception of Gausman.

I read a piece recently about the draft when Houston last had the first pick. The Nevin pick. The scouting dept. wanted Jeter. Drayton pushed for Nevin because he was a college guy and would be ready for the majors sooner.

[Ron Brand]

I read a piece recently about the draft when Houston last had the first pick. The Nevin pick. The scouting dept. wanted Jeter. Drayton pushed for Nevin because he was a college guy and would be ready for the majors sooner.

I'm not sure that Jeter would have grown up to be JETER without being in the Yankee farm system that was in place at that time.

[Reuben]

I'm not sure that Jeter would have grown up to be JETER without being in the Yankee farm system that was in place at that time.

You're right, he would've been blocked by Andujar Cedeno and Orlando Miller in the Astros' system, so he probably would've just given up and faded away.

[Ron Brand]

You're right, he would've been blocked by Andujar Cedeno and Orlando Miller in the Astros' system, so he probably would've just given up and faded away.

Cute, but that's not what I meant. I remember reading something a while back (and maybe posting a link to it) about some care and instruction and opportunities that were given to him because of some circumstances within the Yankee farm system that would've been unlikely to have been extended to him in the Astro system.

[astrosfan76]

Tough break for Victor Roache. He probably wasn't going to go #1, but he was most likely a top 10, possibly top 5 pick before breaking his wrist diving for a ball yesterday. He's expected to miss the season, which could really hurt his stock, if he isn't able to prove his health before the draft.

[hostros7]

I read a piece recently about the draft when Houston last had the first pick. The Nevin pick. The scouting dept. wanted Jeter. Drayton pushed for Nevin because he was a college guy and would be ready for the majors sooner.

There was an interesting anecdote on this topic posted here, although I don't remember the source.  Essentially, the amateur scout advocating Jeter left after the club took Nevin because he claimed he staked his entire rep on Jeter and the team still didn't listen, so he figured is opinion just wasn't valued.

[Ron Brand]

There was an interesting anecdote on this topic posted here, although I don't remember the source.  Essentially, the amateur scout advocating Jeter left after the club took Nevin because he claimed he staked his entire rep on Jeter and the team still didn't listen, so he figured is opinion just wasn't valued.

Hal Newhouser. He'd been following Jeter for a while and had built a good relationship with him, and reportedly told his boss that no one was worth $1 million to sign but if anyone was, it was Derek Jeter. Instead of taking a kid out of high school and paying him that much, they went with the CWS MVP Phil Nevin, who was highly regarded and only cost them $700,000. Newhouser thought he could get Jeter signed for $750k, others thought it would take a million to keep him from going to Michigan to play baseball.

[Reuben]

Hal Newhouser. He'd been following Jeter for a while and had built a good relationship with him, and reportedly told his boss that no one was worth $1 million to sign but if anyone was, it was Derek Jeter. Instead of taking a kid out of high school and paying him that much, they went with the CWS MVP Phil Nevin, who was highly regarded and only cost them $700,000. Newhouser thought he could get Jeter signed for $750k, others thought it would take a million to keep him from going to Michigan to play baseball.

This is kinda off-topic, but I just looked up Newhouser's stats on bb-ref. I knew he was a HOFer, but didn't realize how great his peak was. In 1944-46, he went 29-9, 25-9, 26-9, with ERAs of 2.22, 1.81, and 1.94, finishing 1st, 1st, and 2nd in MVP voting. Yeah, the competition was thinned out some by WWII, but that is just an amazing 3 years there.

Apparently he knew something about scouting too.

[chuck]

I read a piece recently about the draft when Houston last had the first pick. The Nevin pick. The scouting dept. wanted Jeter. Drayton pushed for Nevin because he was a college guy and would be ready for the majors sooner.

As much as I would love to hang every organizational fuck up on Drayton the Jeter decision happened before Drayton's tenure as owner.

[Reuben]

As much as I would love to hang every organizational fuck up on Drayton the Jeter decision happened before Drayton's tenure as owner.

juliogotay above was referring to this article, which claims "Drayton McLane wanted them to take a college player who could get to the Astrodome quickly. And because McLane had just purchased the team from John McMullen, his word was the only one that counted."

This Chron article from last year says "On July 24, 1992... it was announced Drayton McLane had purchased the Astros for $117 million". I don't know when the draft was that year, and it's certainly possible that noted dumbass Phil Rogers is FOS here, but I find it easy to believe- even if he wasn't officially the owner when the draft happened, it's possible he was pulling the strings earlier, ala Crane at the trade deadline last year.

[roadrunner]

And there's really no reason to give Drayton the benefit of the doubt.

[juliogotay]

Well, it could depend on who you ask. Different pundits will have different opinions, but I guess it really boils down to who the Astros like. Right now, I would guess Appel, Marrero, and Giolito are the main guys, with Gausman, McCullers, and Buxton being a legitimate part of the discussion. I think I've heard all those names linked to them, with the possible exception of Gausman.

I just read on a UT board (Rivals) that Giolito hit 100 today on the gun.

[astrosfan76]

I just read on a UT board (Rivals) that Giolito hit 100 today on the gun.

Nice. I really hope that they're willing to buck tradition and draft him if he's the best player available, even if he is an HS RHP.

[juliogotay]

Nice. I really hope that they're willing to buck tradition and draft him if he's the best player available, even if he is an HS RHP.

I don't know about his command or if he has any secondary pitches. I really don't wish to see this pick spent on a closer.

[moriartp]

Nice. I really hope that they're willing to buck tradition and draft him if he's the best player available, even if he is an HS RHP.

For all the things the new front office may be accused of, bowing to tradition doesn't seem to be one of them. I also think the "no HS RHP has gone 1-1" thing is a little overblown. It's more a matter of there usually being safer bets to deliver on talent than HS pitchers (how many HS lefties have gone 1-1?). But if Giolito or any other prep pitcher separates himself from the pack, I don't think they'll hesitate to draft him.

[astrosfan76]

I don't know about his command or if he has any secondary pitches. I really don't wish to see this pick spent on a closer.

I haven't heard any concern that he'll end up in the pen. 

The top high school prospect for the 2012 draft, there is early speculation that Giolito could be the first high school righthander to be selected first overall. He has everything you can ask for in a prep arm. He stands at 6-foot-6, 230 pounds with broad shoulders and strong legs. He sat in the low to mid 90s last summer, but took a step forward this fall and has been easily reaching the high 90s. He has a low-80s curveball with sharp, downward break and a good changeup with a sink. He has an easy delivery and can lull hitters to sleep with his slow tempo before he explodes toward the plate.

He allowed only 1 hit and 0 walks in 6 1/3 last night, striking out 8. 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/02/giolito-hits-triple-digits/

[Reuben]

The fact that he has an "easy delivery" is nice to hear. Whether the Astros take him or not probably won't just come down to "is he likely to be a better MLB player than Appel (or whoever)", but "is he likely to have an injury that destroys his career?"