2012 draft

[hostros7]

Just from reading the reports and not having seen the guy play, I'm curious as to why Correa hasn't been getting more pub as a potential 1/1.  He has to be no less risky than Buxton. He plays SS and has all the tools, including power.  This organization doesn't really have anyone who fits that description.  Anyone have any insight on this?

[moriartp]

Correa has gotten some love from a few pundits, but there hasn't been anything connecting him to the Astros beyond Keith Law (I think) calling him a "dark horse to go 1-1" a while back. One guy over at Perfect Game gave him a ridiculously positive evaluation, though, saying he's way better than Buxton. There's a belief that Correa might outgrow SS, but most seem to think he'd play third very well and that he'll have more than enough bat to be valuable there. The consensus definitely still favors Buxton, though. There's also been a lot of talk that the Astros would prefer to take a college player, but I don't think anyone really has a firm idea of what's going to happen come June.

Also, shit. The draft is just over a month away. Time to start getting excited.

[astrosfan76]

Correa has gotten some love from a few pundits, but there hasn't been anything connecting him to the Astros beyond Keith Law (I think) calling him a "dark horse to go 1-1" a while back. One guy over at Perfect Game gave him a ridiculously positive evaluation, though, saying he's way better than Buxton. There's a belief that Correa might outgrow SS, but most seem to think he'd play third very well and that he'll have more than enough bat to be valuable there. The consensus definitely still favors Buxton, though. There's also been a lot of talk that the Astros would prefer to take a college player, but I don't think anyone really has a firm idea of what's going to happen come June.

Also, shit. The draft is just over a month away. Time to start getting excited.

To add to that, one guy from PG wrote that article, but all the guys there favor him over Buxton.  They don't see Buxton providing much power, he's hit maybe 1 HR this spring and they've never seen him hit 1 at any of their events.  

Edit:  Mayo, at MiLB.com is supposed to post an article tomorrow discussing candidates for 1/1 and he mentioned that McTaggart is supposed to have a story on the topic, as well.
Correa has been getting extra attention this week from his performance at the Excellence Tournament.  If Luhnow hadn't been eying him before then, it may be too late, since they'll want plenty of looks at whoever they pick.  But, if he's as good as the guys at Perfect Game think he is, I hope he gets plenty of consideration.

[juliogotay]

I've heard Arod comparisons to Correa from one source. Obviously, not the concensus though or he'd be a slam dunk first pick in this draft.

[astrosfan76]

I've heard Arod comparisons to Correa from one source. Obviously, not the concensus though or he'd be a slam dunk first pick in this draft.

Was that from Perfect Game?  I know they did, but it would be nice to see if someone else did.  Bleacher Report likened him to Tulo, which if he can reach that level would also make him a slam dunk first pick.  One thing they stated, which I didn't know, was that he has hit 90 HR since 2009, and that was written in early April.  I don't know if that includes tournaments, but wow.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1139654-mlb-draft-2012-carlos-correa-and-five-studs-you-need-to-know

[moriartp]

One thing they stated, which I didn't know, was that he has hit 90 HR since 2009, and that was written in early April.  I don't know if that includes tournaments, but wow.

Pretty sure that's referring to Tulo.

[astrosfan76]

Pretty sure that's referring to Tulo.

I really should take a couple extra seconds to actually read articles.

[jbm]

Not your fault.  It is the bleacher report and is poorly written and edited.  Who the fuck talks about what a joy Tulo is to watch when describing a prospect they have comped him to. 

[moriartp]

Who the fuck talks about what a joy Tulo is to watch when describing a prospect they have comped him to.

Someone who knows little-to-nothing about his subject. If you can't talk about Correa, just make an arbitrary comp and talk about that guy instead!

[astrosfan76]

Results from the usual suspects from last weekend (Zimmer was out nursing a hamstring injury):

Gausman: 7 2/3 IP 6 H 3 R/ER 0 BB 4 K
Appel: 7 IP 9 H 2 R/ER 0 BB 4 K
Wacha: 7 IP 8 H 2 R/ER 1 BB 9 K

PG had one of their guys at the LSU/Ole Miss series and had this in their writeup:

The professional brass didn’t go home disappointed. The Royals, Cubs and Padres have picks No. 5, 6 and 7, respectively in the upcoming MLB draft. And though there could always be a surprise come June, chances are good Gausman won’t be on the board by then, as there’s at least some talk the Houston Astros could take him as the No. 1 overall pick, though, Byron Buxton’s name has been talked more about in that spot recently.

 

FWIW

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=6962

[OregonStrosFan]

MLB/Mayo 5/7/12 Draft Notebook: LINK

[Travis]

Keith Law's latest ranks Buxton #1, Correa #2. Thinks Astros will take Buxton.

[astrosfan76]

Jim Callis is going to be on 610 at 11:30.

ETA:  Well, that was a waste.  Why bring on a guy whose job is to follow the draft and the minors and just talk about Josh Hamilton & the Astros' MLB club?

[astrosfan76]

BA's first mock is up.  Callis talks about the draft being weak at the top and with college position players, in general.

1. ASTROS: Houston is focusing on Buxton, Zunino and the three best college pitchers (Stanford's Mark Appel, Louisiana State's Kevin Gausman and San Francisco's Kyle Zimmer). Scouting director Bobby Heck has taken an up-the-middle position player with his top pick in each of his four drafts, and he and his staff are believed to favor Buxton, a five-tool center fielder. Rumors persist that the Astros' higher-ups—new owner Jim Crane and new general manager Jeff Luhnow—prefer an arm who could help soon and fit at the front of their rotation.
Projected Pick: MARK APPEL.

I'm sure that Crane could have a lot of say, but Luhnow is referred to as having taken the best player available when with the Cardinals (in St. Louis' pick).  Why would he change?  Plus, I thought Crane was supposed to stay out of the baseball decisions.  

Anyway, I'm feeling kinda apathetic at this point who we take.  If Correa is as good as PG believes, we'd be foolish to pass him up.  Out of the college pitchers, I like Gausman most.  But, part of that is feeling like he has the highest ceiling (with a decent chance of reaching it), part of that is being a homer.  PG has me down on Buxton.  Callis has had scouts tell him Buxton has 70 raw power, but he really hasn't shown it in games or showcases.  Sure, he's somewhat of a whale in a little pond, but you'd like to see some real evidence of a 70 grade sometime.  

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/mock-draft/2012/2613371.html

[jbm]

Man, I hope Callis is getting some bad info.  As the draft gets closer, and the college guys continue to middle about, I felt sure it would be one of the high school guys.  I'd much rather see them reach, and fail with a high ceiling guy than settle on Appel.  You can stumble upon what Appel will most likely be; I assume you generally don't stumble upon Buxton type players.

[OregonStrosFan]

I'm curious about how this draft may work with the restrictions on bonuses this season.  IIRC, Luhnow noted something about not really knowing how the draft will shake out because of these until right about draft time.  With no true 1-1, does he take a 1-12 type player that he can give 10 overall money to and use the 'savings under the cap' (so to speak) to try to entice better players late in the draft?

[astrosfan76]

I'm curious about how this draft may work with the restrictions on bonuses this season.  IIRC, Luhnow noted something about not really knowing how the draft will shake out because of these until right about draft time.  With no true 1-1, does he take a 1-12 type player that he can give 10 overall money to and use the 'savings under the cap' (so to speak) to try to entice better players late in the draft?

I asked a similar question in a PG (?) chat.  The club has $7.2M for the first pick and probably ~$1M or so for the supplemental.  Theoretically, they could take two guys for top 4 money (slot is $4.2M).  The dream scenario is they draft someone willing to sign for that and have a healthy Giolito fall to them at #41.  But, you can't have predraft deals and you're at the mercy of the advisor not getting every penny possible.

[astrosfan76]

Man, I hope Callis is getting some bad info.  As the draft gets closer, and the college guys continue to middle about, I felt sure it would be one of the high school guys.  I'd much rather see them reach, and fail with a high ceiling guy than settle on Appel.  You can stumble upon what Appel will most likely be; I assume you generally don't stumble upon Buxton type players.

He did say on 790 this afternoon that the club is playing it really close to their vests at this point.  So, he could be wrong.  Luhnow did watch Buxton in person, so he obviously hasn't been ruled out, either.

[hostros7]

I asked a similar question in a PG (?) chat.  The club has $7.2M for the first pick and probably ~$1M or so for the supplemental.  Theoretically, they could take two guys for top 4 money (slot is $4.2M).  The dream scenario is they draft someone willing to sign for that and have a healthy Giolito fall to them at #41.  But, you can't have predraft deals and you're at the mercy of the advisor not getting every penny possible.

Fwiw, I saw that klaw believes gioloto won't be available for the jays at 17.

[moriartp]

Law today:

-If you were the astros who would you take at #1? Who do you think they will take at #1?

I would take Buxton, and the strong industry consensus is for Buxton as well. But I know they've reached out to a number of players for that pick, including some you wouldn't ordinarily expect to be in consideration up there.


-Draft Question: You said Houston is looking at some guys we wouldn't expect at #1. Can you say who those players are?

On Tuesday, by which point I'll have more concrete info for my first projection of the first-round.

I guess we'll find out what that means later. FWIW, Law was way ahead of everyone else connecting the Astros to DeShields in '10, but I don't know how much that means at this point. All I know is the draft needs to hurry up and get here.