2012 draft

[jbm]

Last pitching lines for the three college pitchers:
                        
                        IP      H     R     ER     BB    SO  Opponent
Mark Appel........9.0....4.....2......2.......2.....3.....Washington
Michael Wacha...8.0....8.....3......3.......2.....8.....Oklahoma
Kyle Zimmer......8.0....6.....2......2.......0.....9.....Portland

[Jacksonian]

Last pitching lines for the three college pitchers:
                        
                        IP      H     R     ER     BB    SO  Opponent
Mark Appel........9.0....4.....2......2.......2.....3.....Washington

For a guy with his stuff his inability to miss college bats is remarkable.

[MusicMan]

For a guy with his stuff his inability to miss college bats is remarkable.

He scares me, and I really hope we go another direction.

[Jacksonian]

He scares me, and I really hope we go another direction.

My sense continues to be Zimmer.

[Reuben]

My sense continues to be Zimmer.

So you don't think they'll gamble on Buxton? Or are you thinking they want someone who will reach the majors quickly?

[Jacksonian]

So you don't think they'll gamble on Buxton? Or are you thinking they want someone who will reach the majors quickly?

I'm thinking Zimmer hasn't reached his ceiling, pitching over hitting, and at 1-1 college pitcher over high school anything when it's that close.

[astrosfan76]

Good read about Kevin Gausman

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=6839

[Travis]

Not exactly a glowing review of Mark Appel: http://www.bbprospectreport.com/2012/04/09/mark-appel-update#more-15864

[astrosfan76]

Not exactly a glowing review of Mark Appel: http://www.bbprospectreport.com/2012/04/09/mark-appel-update#more-15864

Well, depends on how you read it.  If his biggest concern is staying on top of the ball, that can be fixed, as can mechanical issues like flying open.  If a team sees really likes the potential of what they envision he could be, he's still a guy you take very high.  The author never dismisses the potential for Appel to be a frontline starter, just that a team that drafts him can't rush him to the big leagues and expect him to reach his potential. 

[Jacksonian]

Well, depends on how you read it.  If his biggest concern is staying on top of the ball, that can be fixed, as can mechanical issues like flying open.  If a team sees really likes the potential of what they envision he could be, he's still a guy you take very high.  The author never dismisses the potential for Appel to be a frontline starter, just that a team that drafts him can't rush him to the big leagues and expect him to reach his potential. 

I hear all of this stuff, but I still cannot get over the fact that he can't miss college bats.  With the number of mediocre college hitters he faces, a guy with his stuff should be in the 10+K/9IP range.  And, he's not.  If college hitters can see his pitches well enough to make that much contact I fear what pro hitters will do.

I read some of his evaluations, and I cannot help but think Kyle Farnsworth.

[jbm]

I agree.  Batters seeem to see the ball pretty well out of his hand. 

What is the author referring to about getting on top of the ball?  Is this about wrist orientation?  He also talks about him not having much of a downhill plane, which I assume is created by a higher release point, which I assume is largely a function of arm slot.  If so, I doubt he is going to raise his slot much over time. 

[Jacksonian]

And, as we discuss Appel, BA has their own opinion (behind the pay wall).  I believe they moved Appel down.

[S.P. Rodriguez]

Well, depends on how you read it.  If his biggest concern is staying on top of the ball, that can be fixed, as can mechanical issues like flying open.  If a team sees really likes the potential of what they envision he could be, he's still a guy you take very high.  The author never dismisses the potential for Appel to be a frontline starter, just that a team that drafts him can't rush him to the big leagues and expect him to reach his potential. 

I don't see how you read any ambiguity into that article.  Directly stated, the guy has velocity and that's it.  That's about as negative a statement as you can say about a pitcher considered a "top draft prospect". 

[JimR]

I agree.  Batters seeem to see the ball pretty well out of his hand. 

What is the author referring to about getting on top of the ball?  Is this about wrist orientation?  He also talks about him not having much of a downhill plane, which I assume is created by a higher release point, which I assume is largely a function of arm slot.  If so, I doubt he is going to raise his slot much over time. 

elbow above shoulder level

[astrosfan76]

I don't see how you read any ambiguity into that article.  Directly stated, the guy has velocity and that's it.  That's about as negative a statement as you can say about a pitcher considered a "top draft prospect". 

The biggest problem I have with Appel is that he does not consistently get on top of the ball, which is going to make his fastball velocity play down, and it also renders his slider, which can flash moments of hard bite, woefully hittable and inconsistent.

His fastball will flash occasional heavy, late sink. But too many fastballs lack the sort of dominant downhill plane I would want in a 6-foot-4 guy, and this means too many fastballs start up in the strike zone. This is going to translate to very ordinary numbers immediately for the amount of money he is going to receive, unless he makes some corrections right away.

Another concern I have is an inability to finish off hitters, which is the direct result of not keeping his delivery tight, coming open, his arm slot sinking, his fastball straightening out, his slider not biting, his change not deceptive.

Those relate to mechanical issues.  If he cleans up his mechanics, his fastball will play up, his slider will have more bite, etc.  He then goes on to talk about Appel needing time to develop, obviously to clean up those things.  

Here's another report written after Appel's start against Rice, when he K'd 14 batters (w/ video).  Interestingly, the author beams about Appel's 11-5 curve, while the other guy talks about Appel's slider.  Neither author admits that the other pitch exists.  

http://projectprospect.com/article/2012/03/11/mark-appel-scouting-report

[Reuben]

And, as we discuss Appel, BA has their own opinion (behind the pay wall).  I believe they moved Appel down.

I've got a BA subscription now (birthday present from my lovely wife), and I'm happy to look anything up, although I have to say I find their site difficult to use- hard to find the recent, most relevant articles.

What I assume you're referring to is a new column by Callis, not a ranking list. He says there's a "sense" from other teams that the Astros might not want to risk it with Buxton, he mentions the Appel K issue, mentions Zimmer's rise, and says Zunino would be the "safest #1 pick" this year but only has one standout tool (power, I think).

[Reuben]

Whoops, found the list. Buxton, Zunino, Zimmer, Appel, Gausman, Giolito, Wacha ("sleeper to go first overall") are the top 7. Marrero down to #13.

[At Ease]

ND tonight for Appel with a line of 9 IP 10 H 1R (0ER) 13 K...

and 150 pitches.

[astrosfan76]

A couple of the guys from BA went down to Georgia this weekend to watch Buxton.  They didn't see any scouts last night, when he reached base all 4 times, but, Astros, Mariners, Orioles, and Pirates are in attendance today.  Mariners were only ones to show up for BP. 

Run-down from last night:

Buxton smokes a 2B down the LF line in his first AB. Advances on SB and scores on pop-up that lands in no man's land

Buxton ripped a line drive 1B through the 6 hole in his 2nd AB. Quick, easy swing. Advanced on PB, stole 3rd easily, scores on 1B.

Buxton 2Bs but it was a lazy pop up in RC and OFs were playing very deep. Advances on F8 and scores on E4. Scored team's 3 runs.

Buxton walks on 4 straight balls w/ bases loaded in his 4th AB. Pitches weren't anywhere near the zone

and finally:

Buxton comes in to close it out. Faces one hitter and strikes him out. First few FB were 89-90. Last few were 93-94

[astrosfan76]

Not really news, but the club's really covering their bases with the upcoming draft:

"We're looking at everybody, and he's (Buxton) one of the guys we're looking at," Luhnow said. "We not only have the top pick, but we also have a compensation pick, so you never know how it's going to go. We're being comprehensive in our coverage. The guys we believe are in contention for that first pick, we're at almost every one of their games or every game, depending how easy it is to get there."

"We'll have a lot of discussions that will involve [owner] Jim [Crane] and [president and CEO] George [Postolos] and everybody and figure out what the decision is at the end. We don't know how the signability is going to work with the new [Collective Bargaining Agreement] rule or if it's going to be easy or hard. A lot of that will ultimately play out in the 48 hours leading up to the Draft."

http://houston.astros.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120415&content_id=28743512&notebook_id=28743514&vkey=notebook_hou&c_id=hou