2012 draft

[juliogotay]

Greg Lucas makes his case for Appel. http://www.foxsportshouston.com/03/11/12/Appel-making-move-to-be-Astros-No-1-draf/landing_astros.html?blockID=685570&feedID=6702

[pots]

"Whether the Astros select Appel with the first pick is still three months away. He will have to continue to pitch well and most importantly stay healthy. So, don't pencil his name at the top of the 2012 draft just yet."

"the starting rotation for 2014 might just have a new name you could pencil in."

The whole point of penciling something in is that it's a maybe (and can be erased).  Like saying frozen ice. 

[OregonStrosFan]

The whole point of penciling something in is that it's a maybe (and can be erased).  Like saying frozen ice.

Or like saying baseball tradition...  (FYB!!!)

[astrosfan76]

Callis had a few relevant notes in his latest BA column:

Zimmer's results, or lack of, on Friday were at least partly due to blister issues. He spoke to a scouting director who has a fairly high pick who likes him more than Appel, particularly "the athleticism in his delivery." Out of the pitchers, Zimmer is his top pick.

The director's favorite prospect, though, is easily Buxton. He grades him as having 70s in raw power, speed, defense in CF, and arm. To round out the 5 tools, he gives him 70 potential as a hitter, cause, you know, it just looks neater that way. Also,

The director likes him more than Bubba Starling, the best athlete in the 2011 draft, saying that Buxton has a better package of tools, a better swing and better ability to recognize breaking pitches.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2012/2613102.html

[jbm]

Thanks for the link.  Interesting note on Buxton.  I suppose if the Astros graded him even close to that high, then he is a no brainer.

Side note on Clemens was interesting also.  Never heard the reliever talk until now, but I'm not sure what he meant by saying Clemens has a "similar profile" to Cosart.  I've only seen one inning, but he looked much smoother and showed better fastball command than Cosart, and I can't imagine his secondary pitches compare to Cosart's.

[juliogotay]

Thanks for the link.  Interesting note on Buxton.  I suppose if the Astros graded him even close to that high, then he is a no brainer.

Side note on Clemens was interesting also.  Never heard the reliever talk until now, but I'm not sure what he meant by saying Clemens has a "similar profile" to Cosart.  I've only seen one inning, but he looked much smoother and showed better fastball command than Cosart, and I can't imagine his secondary pitches compare to Cosart's.

If Cosart and Clemens end up in the pen this team has a long way to go in rebuilding a rotation with plus arms.

[astrosfan76]

Thanks for the link.  Interesting note on Buxton.  I suppose if the Astros graded him even close to that high, then he is a no brainer.

I don't know how he's looking this year and different scouts are going to see things differently, but here's a rehash of a link from September.  This guy breaks his present/future grades as:

Hitting-40/50 Not terrible, and would still qualify as a tool in the "5-tool player", but definitely not a 70, either.  If I remember right, that's the difference between a .280 and .300 hitter.

Power-45/60

Running-75/75

Arm-55/60

Glove-45/55

Again, this was from September and different scouts see different things, but here's Perfect Game's report on Starling as a senior (all future grades):

Hitting-60 (his biggest question mark)

Power-70 (measuring raw power, not necessarily usable power)

Speed-70 (60 home-first, possible 80 on the bases and in the outfield)

Arm-70

Defense-80 (GG tools in CF with exceptionally good jumps)



http://rise.espn.go.com/baseball/articles/2011/09/14-Byron-Buxton.aspx

http://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=213154

[cougar]

Just as an update, Simmer pitched a CG 3 hit shutout with 4 walks and 11 Ks.  FB was in the "upper 90s".

Zunino went 2-3 yesterday, and is batting .423 with 7 homers and 24 RBIs.  Line is .423/.487/.844.

[astrosfan76]

Gausman threw 8 2/3 on Friday giving up 1 run on 4 hits and 4 walks, striking out 11.  He was upper 90's early and 94-95 in the late innings.  He was outpitched in the game by Chris Stratton. 

Stanford had the week off, so nothing to report on Appel.

Callis sees Appel, Buxton, and Zimmer as the top guys for 1/1 at this point.  Said the other day (re: question about the Twins) that he doesn't see Buxton lasting to #3. 

[tlott33]

Wacha carries perfect game bid into the eighth in 4-0 win over Pepperdine.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/03/game-report-michael-wacha-dominates-for-texas-am/

[jbm]

Listening to the Baseball America show, Manuel was talking like Wacha's improvement over last year has put him in the mix for the top slot.  70 fastball, 70 change, sliders flashes plus.  He also mentioned that:

Wacha potentially signing for slightly less than Appel (possible home area discount) might be relevant in a capped-bonus environment; and

Luhnow is thought as a college-inclined guy, but Buxton is rated pretty high, already starting to show more skills over last year. 

[astrosfan76]

Listening to the Baseball America show, Manuel was talking like Wacha's improvement over last year has put him in the mix for the top slot.  70 fastball, 70 change, sliders flashes plus.  He also mentioned that:

Wacha potentially signing for slightly less than Appel (possible home area discount) might be relevant in a capped-bonus environment; and

Luhnow is thought as a college-inclined guy, but Buxton is rated pretty high, already starting to show more skills over last year. 

From the limited amount that I've read on him, it sounds like his changeup is his best pitch.  Does he get much movement on his fastball?  Appel's is known to be fairly straight, but he has a few more ticks on his fastball. 

I'm curious to see more written about Buxton.  He's not going to get much attention from the competition he faces this spring, so I wonder what is meant by him showing more skills.  Are his tools louder than last year?  Is he showing a better approach at the plate and/or in the field?  I'm not faulting you, I just don't know what to read into those statements.

On a side note, a few other weekend performances:

Gausman: 5 IP 6 H 2 ER 5 BB 8 K (seems to have lost the strike zone the past couple of weekends)
Appel: 9 IP 6 H 2 ER 2 BB 7 K (pitching for first time in 16 days after Stanford had previous week off plus rainout on Saturday; 3 of the hits and the 2 runs came in the 9th)
Zimmer: 9 IP 5 H 0 ER/R 1 BB 9 K

[jbm]

I just saw Wacha once last year and my memories are vague.  I remember a tall lanky kid whose fastball got a lot of groundballs.  It may have had some sink, or might have just been the downhill plane they talk about.  I don't remember many hitter squaring him up.  I also don't remember him pounding the zone the way they describe him now.  I remember Appel much more, and thought of him as a pretty advanced pitcher for a college player, but even though he might have more ticks on the gun, the fastball didn't miss a lot of bats. 

The comment on Buxton was pretty much what I said.  They mentioned the lack of competition, but said since last year, there is greater evidence that the raw tools have shown some progress towards skills.  Nothing more specific.  As you mentioned earlier, they compared him to Starling as a five-tool raw high schooler.

[Navin R Johnson]

Here is some recent video of Wacha.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsH31_RiXJw

Doesn't look like he uses his lower body very much.

[tlott33]

Wacha's fastball is very straight, it is on a very good downward plane though. He does flash a very good change-up. He doesn't change his motion or arm speed at all and it has good movement to his arm side.

With Appel, his fastball has very good movement. He throws a lot of two-seamers and brings the ball off the outside corner and back very well. This is when I watched him last year, but what I would say is that he actually throws too few four seamers. He could use that rising fastball to his advantage to get more K's.

His K/9 has improved a lot this year so he may be doing that, but he does have very good movement on his two-seamer.

[tbone421998]

Wacha was named Big XII pitcher of the week after taking a no hitter into the 8th ending up with a 2 hitter.

[jbm]

All the college pitchers mentioned for the top pick got roughed up:
                        
                        IP      H     R     ER     BB    SO  Opponent
Mark Appel........8.0....12....6......6.......2.....5.....Arizona
Michael Wacha...6.1....12....5......4.......1.....5.....Missouri
Kyle Zimmer......7.1....10....4......4.......1.....6.....San Diego

 

[astrosfan76]

BA had a writeup on Zimmer's outing.  It has some good information, but this evaluation caught my eye:

“He’s a guy that will be able to eat innings,” said an AL scout who was on hand. “Even if he doesn’t become a front-of-the-rotation starter, he’ll be a solid No. 3 or No. 4 that can give you 200-plus (innings) in a season. That’s extremely valuable.

“He’s a special pitching prospect. There’s little to no risk with this guy.”

I guess the last sentence depends on where you draft him.  If he goes 1/1, he better be more than a solid #3 or #4, regardless of how many innings he pitches.  If that's his floor, he's a good guy to grab in the middle of the 1st, with the potential to be more.  But, I wouldn't want to be the scout who recommends Carl Pavano go #1 overall. 

[pots]

BA had a writeup on Zimmer's outing.  It has some good information, but this evaluation caught my eye:

I guess the last sentence depends on where you draft him.  If he goes 1/1, he better be more than a solid #3 or #4, regardless of how many innings he pitches.  If that's his floor, he's a good guy to grab in the middle of the 1st, with the potential to be more.  But, I wouldn't want to be the scout who recommends Carl Pavano go #1 overall. 

Close to gauranteed #3 or 4 with the possibility of a 1 or 2 isn't anything to sneeze at.  Especially in this years draft.

[astrosfan76]

Close to gauranteed #3 or 4 with the possibility of a 1 or 2 isn't anything to sneeze at.  Especially in this years draft.

A close to guaranteed #3 is nothing to sneeze at, but you'd have to buy hard into the upside.  Granted, that's one guy's evaluation (and others may have higher aspirations for him), but if you wind up with a #4 at 1/1, that's bad drafting.  Yeah, not every year is going to produce a Bryce Harper or even a Gerrit Cole, but this isn't a terrible year, either.  Losing Giolito does hurt, but there are still quality players around who would go high in any draft.  The guys at BA are thinking/hearing that Buxton is the best player, but they don't know if he'll go #1 (and that there are several other guys who they'd put on their short list).  It's kind of rehashing what's already been discussed in this thread, but they've heard from some scouts who like him more than Starling (and that they are pretty similar tools-wise).