2012 draft

[Jacksonian]

Since it seems inevitable the Astros are destined for the #1 pick next year I thought I'd start a thread to discuss who might be the guy.

Right now it appears, through this much of the summer leagues, that the top position player is Victor Roache.  He'll be a junior at Georgia Southern.  Outfielder though I don't believe he's in Springer's class defensively.  Tearing up Cape Cod right now.

[Russe]

I've read a lot of good things about OF Nick Williams, any thoughts?

[roadrunner]

Google tells me it's Lance McCullers, an HS pitcher out of Tampa.

[Reuben]

Google tells me it's Lance McCullers, an HS pitcher out of Tampa.

hmmm... Major League bloodlines...

[roadrunner]

Apparently McCullers hit 100 in the first inning at the east coast showcase this week.

[Uncle Charlie]

Since it seems inevitable the Astros are destined for the #1 pick next year I thought I'd start a thread to discuss who might be the guy.

Right now it appears, through this much of the summer leagues, that the top position player is Victor Roache.  He'll be a junior at Georgia Southern.  Outfielder though I don't believe he's in Springer's class defensively.  Tearing up Cape Cod right now.

History says to draft a position player with power.  Roache seems to fit that bill.

[jbm]

I had to find out who Roache is.  Googled, and the first link summary stated

"Admires Manny Ramirez for being "the hardest working hitter in the game"... "

Not really the best first description.

[MusicMan]

I had to find out who Roache is.  Googled, and the first link summary stated

"Admires Manny Ramirez for being "the hardest working hitter in the game"... "

Not really the best first description.

Yikes.

[Uncle Charlie]

I had to find out who Roache is.  Googled, and the first link summary stated

"Admires Manny Ramirez for being "the hardest working hitter in the game"... "

Not really the best first description.

Wow.  How about that HS kid down in Galveston?  Billy something.

[Bench]

I had to find out who Roache is.  Googled, and the first link summary stated

"Admires Manny Ramirez for being "the hardest working hitter in the game"... "

Not really the best first description.

I think that's fairly accurate.  Manny justifiably earned a reputation for being a selfish goofball, but he pretty much spent every day working on his swing and watching film of opposing pitchers.  The man was a tireless hitting machine. 

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/al/redsox/2008-04-28-cover-ramirez_N.htm

"Sometimes people don't give him enough credit. He thinks with the pitcher. He's got a plan."

That plan gets formulated in the endless hours Ramirez spends honing his craft.

Manager Terry Francona says he arrives at Fenway Park about 10:30 a.m. for a 7 p.m. game and by that time Ramirez is usually returning home after a workout. Later at the ballpark, Ramirez will hit off a tee and in the cages, take batting practice and watch video.

"There's a lot that comes with Manny that's so good, that if somebody wants to come and pick out the quirks, I'm going to defend him, because I know what he does to prepare," Francona says. "Every once in a while a ball goes up in the air and he doesn't give you the effort. Sometimes there's a lapse, but there aren't too many lapses in that batter's box."

[SM_Bobcat]

Yikes.

Actually when you are talking just about hitting that description is 100% accurate.

Now when it comes to running the bases, fielding, or just about anything else in the game.  Manny was as clueless as they come.  And would certainly appear to prefer not to have to deal with playing in the field at all.

[Bench]

Now when it comes to running the bases, fielding, or just about anything else in the game.  Manny was as clueless as they come.  And would certainly appear to prefer not to have to deal with playing in the field at all.

Yet the knucklehead absolutely refused to be a DH.  With Manny, things don't have to make sense.   

[outlookdude]

Wow.  How about that HS kid down in Galveston?  Billy something.

Galveston Ball, Billy "Nick" Williams. Recently verbally committed to play baseball at UT. (Not that it means he will ever play there, of course.)

A little video here, although it has a long, pain in the ass intro....
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/722354-2012-mlb-mock-draft-early-predictions-for-next-years-top-10-picks/page/6#/articles/722354-2012-mlb-mock-draft-early-predictions-for-next-years-top-10-picks/page/6

[Uncle Charlie]

If the kid gets picked #1 overall, it won't matter if he committed to a seminary.

[astrosfan76]

Callis was asked about the draft in his chat yesterday (specifically, about McCullers) and had this to say:

Lance McCullers Jr. is still one of the best high school prospects for the 2012 draft, but he's behind the Appel/Marrero/Buxton/Giolito group.

I knew who Appel and Marrero were, but I didn't know of the others.  Giolito and Buxton are both HS players, Giolito a RHP and Buxton an OF/RHP.  Giolito brings heat from a 6'6" frame, hitting up to 98.  Buxton is a 5-tool athlete from a small school in Georgia, where he also plays QB.  He can hit 94MPH on the gun, but sounds more like an OF from the small amount of scouting data I was able to find.  I've seen the same report a couple of places:

Byron is an outstanding athlete who is QB on his high school football team and CF and RHP for the baseball team. Being from a small town in GA, he is not well known, but the consensus among those who have seen him is that he has the best set of tools in the state of Georgia. Byron is committed to the University of Georgia.

I've seen him listed at 6'1" and 6'2" and 170-175.  I haven't seen anything specific about his toolset, though it's probably safe to assume his skillset leans more toward speed than light-tower homeruns.  Sounds like Bobby's kind of guy.

[Uncle Charlie]

It looks like Rusty Pendergrass won't be signing any players for the Astros this year.  RJ (be warned) writes about it here
http://blog.chron.com/sportsjustice/2011/09/astros-fire-a-competent-employee-and-a-good-man-and-so-it-goes/

As usual, its rather biased a shoddy reporting.  He focuses on a few players Pendergrass signed, but gives the reason from the Astros as having missed on too many players - effectively trying to make the Astros look like morons.  I don't know Pendergrass or his work and hey, the Astros may be complete morons for letting him go, but it would have been good to know who else Pendergrass signed that could have been "misses" to complete the story.

What do you guys think about Pendergrass?

[Lurch]

It looks like Rusty Pendergrass won't be signing any players for the Astros this year.  RJ (be warned) writes about it here
http://blog.chron.com/sportsjustice/2011/09/astros-fire-a-competent-employee-and-a-good-man-and-so-it-goes/

As usual, its rather biased a shoddy reporting.  He focuses on a few players Pendergrass signed, but gives the reason from the Astros as having missed on too many players - effectively trying to make the Astros look like morons.  I don't know Pendergrass or his work and hey, the Astros may be complete morons for letting him go, but it would have been good to know who else Pendergrass signed that could have been "misses" to complete the story.

What do you guys think about Pendergrass?

The head-scratcher for me is why this is done now, in the midst of an ownership change

[jbm]

It looks like Rusty Pendergrass won't be signing any players for the Astros this year.  RJ (be warned) writes about it here
http://blog.chron.com/sportsjustice/2011/09/astros-fire-a-competent-employee-and-a-good-man-and-so-it-goes/

As usual, its rather biased a shoddy reporting.  He focuses on a few players Pendergrass signed, but gives the reason from the Astros as having missed on too many players - effectively trying to make the Astros look like morons.  I don't know Pendergrass or his work and hey, the Astros may be complete morons for letting him go, but it would have been good to know who else Pendergrass signed that could have been "misses" to complete the story.

What do you guys think about Pendergrass?

I would think it is impossible for someone outside the inner workings to evaluate a scout.  Scouts are paid to have opinions on everyone, and culling out their opinions on the few players their superiors selected and signed seems like a pointless and unfair way to analyze them.

The Astros also let go of the scout over the Georgia region.  Recent Georgia signees were Austin, Nash and DeShields.  Probably others also.  Likewise, it is unfair to judge this guy on that data.

There could easily be many reasons for letting go of an individual scout which would never be made public.  Just like any other employee.

ps.  I wonder if it is more troubling for a scout's career to go to bat hard for a guy who badly disappoints, or play down a guy who turns out to be a star.

[Reuben]

...
ps.  I wonder if it is more troubling for a scout's career to go to bat hard for a guy who badly disappoints, or play down a guy who turns out to be a star.

Good point. Would Pendergrass have been in charge of scouting Cosart back in '08? Like you said, it's impossible for us to evaluate these guys without some real inside info.

One thing I'll say, though: It doesn't speak too well about their current opinion of Deshields that they let the Georgia guy go. Obviously Austin hasn't worked out, but he was a 3rd round pick, and when they signed Deshields they seemed to be extremely high on him. I wonder if Wade had a moment like unto Hunsicker when he finally saw Chris Burke play SS.

[moriartp]

I wonder if Wade had a moment like unto Hunsicker when he finally saw Chris Burke play SS.

Would such a moment not reflect as poorly on Heck as on Martin? With the call ultimately being down to him, and with more consensus-type guys still on the board, I'd have to think Heck was on the Delino train as much as anyone.

[jbm]

First off, I have no reason to be down on DeSheilds, but I've voiced that shit ad naseum here.  However, if DeShields is part of the issue, it does implicate everyone up to Heck because with a pick that high, they all had good long looks at the kid. 

[Navin R Johnson]

FWIW.  Rusty used to live next door to my cousin out in Sienna Plantation.  I got to know Rusty about 8 years ago, I would see him several times a year out at UofH baseball games. It is my understanding that this is a Heck thing, Wade had nothing to do with it.

[hostros7]

From Keith Law:

This year was champagne. Next year is Mad Dog. RT @steveninman14: @keithlaw 1-10 how good is next years draft compared to this year? thanks

[moriartp]

I wouldn't be too concerned with 2012 being a sparse year for top talent. The Astros will probably be picking top five for a while to come.

[Reuben]

I wouldn't be too concerned with 2012 being a sparse year for top talent. The Astros will probably be picking top five for a while to come.

True, but also, I think 2011 was notable mainly for its depth, not because Gerritt Cole or whoever was regarded as the best thing since sliced bread. Odds are there will be at least one Hall of Fame-type talent eligible for the draft next year. All the Astros have to do is figure out who it is. Screw the other teams.

[VirtualBob]

True, but also, I think 2011 was notable mainly for its depth, not because Gerritt Cole or whoever was regarded as the best thing since sliced bread. Odds are there will be at least one Hall of Fame-type talent eligible for the draft next year. All the Astros have to do is figure out who it is. Screw the other teams.

Glad to hear it is that simple.

[AppyAstros]

The Astros also let go of the scout over the Georgia region.  Recent Georgia signees were Austin, Nash and DeShields.  Probably others also.  Likewise, it is unfair to judge this guy on that data.

A few years ago, I ran into Wade at an Asheville/Lex game.  Austin was with the team that year and I asked him about him.  He glowed about Austin and his then said "This is the man responsible for signing him - Clarence Johns - Our east coast scouting supervisor."  Johns recently left the Astros to take a position with the Rangers - He is now the Rangers' national cross checker.  I expect the guy who was let go (Lincoln Martin) was a Johns guy and Heck/Alleva (the new Johns) wanted their guy in a talent rich state like Ga.

[Navin R Johnson]

Heck talks about the #1 overall pick that the Astros now own.

http://brianmctaggart.mlblogs.com/2011/09/23/heck-discusses-challenges-of-top-pick/

"Unlike in recent years when phenoms Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper were the clear-cut no. 1 overall picks, Heck said there is a pack of players who have separated themselves. Stanford right-hander Mark Appel, Arizona State shortstop Deven Marrero, Florida catcher Mike Zunino and high school pitcher Lucas Giolito of California and outfielder Byron Buxton of Georgia are among the players who could go No. 1."

[MusicMan]

Heck talks about the #1 overall pick that the Astros now own.

http://brianmctaggart.mlblogs.com/2011/09/23/heck-discusses-challenges-of-top-pick/

"Unlike in recent years when phenoms Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper were the clear-cut no. 1 overall picks, Heck said there is a pack of players who have separated themselves. Stanford right-hander Mark Appel, Arizona State shortstop Deven Marrero, Florida catcher Mike Zunino and high school pitcher Lucas Giolito of California and outfielder Byron Buxton of Georgia are among the players who could go No. 1."

Sickels said the other day he expects us to take Appel or Marrero.

[jbm]

So, the kid from Galveston is no longer thought of as having #1 potential?

The quote from Heck about who is going to be the best for the long haul seems consistent and telling.  Specifically, don't be surprised if it is a raw, high school kid and we hear the howls from the impatient skeptics who consistently dog Heck for valueing potential over present polish.   

[Jacksonian]

So, the kid from Galveston is no longer thought of as having #1 potential?

The quote from Heck about who is going to be the best for the long haul seems consistent and telling.  Specifically, don't be surprised if it is a raw, high school kid and we hear the howls from the impatient skeptics who consistently dog Heck for valueing potential over present polish.   

For the money spent high school players are generally viewed as too big a washout risk to be picked first if a college player is viewed to have a similar ceiling.

[Navin R Johnson]

Sickels said the other day he expects us to take Appel or Marrero.

Is he basing that on the fact he believes those 2 will be the clear cut 1 and 1A come next June?  Or who he thinks Heck/Wade like?

[MusicMan]

Is he basing that on the fact he believes those 2 will be the clear cut 1 and 1A come next June?  Or who he thinks Heck/Wade like?

Yes.

[Navin R Johnson]

Seems like the 2nd part might not matter much.

[Uncle Charlie]

Heck talks about the #1 overall pick that the Astros now own.

http://brianmctaggart.mlblogs.com/2011/09/23/heck-discusses-challenges-of-top-pick/

"Unlike in recent years when phenoms Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper were the clear-cut no. 1 overall picks, Heck said there is a pack of players who have separated themselves. Stanford right-hander Mark Appel, Arizona State shortstop Deven Marrero, Florida catcher Mike Zunino and high school pitcher Lucas Giolito of California and outfielder Byron Buxton of Georgia are among the players who could go No. 1."

They should take the nfl's Messiah Andrew Luck.  I'm fairly positive the Astros can convert him, given their recent success in such matters.

[Sphinx Drummond]

They should take the nfl's Messiah Andrew Luck.  I'm fairly positive the Astros can convert him, given their recent success in such matters.

Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha
Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha
Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha.
(slaps knee,) Whew boy!

[BizidyDizidy]

They should take the nfl's Messiah Andrew Luck.  I'm fairly positive the Astros can convert him, given their recent success in such matters.

Don't know about baseball, but showed last night he might be an okay WR

http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/823028/LUCK-CATCH.gif

[MusicMan]

They should take the nfl's Messiah Andrew Luck.  I'm fairly positive the Astros can convert him, given their recent success in such matters.

You think he'd go Baptist?

[astrosfan76]

BA has early draft rankings (not a mock draft, just prospect status).  Their top two jive with the McTaggart article, with Buxton at #1 and Giolito at #2.  McCullers is only at #9 and Nick Williams (kid from Galveston) is #24.  Of course, plenty can change in the next 7 months. 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/news/2012/2612596.html

[Jacksonian]

BA has early draft rankings (not a mock draft, just prospect status).  Their top two jive with the McTaggart article, with Buxton at #1 and Giolito at #2.  McCullers is only at #9 and Nick Williams (kid from Galveston) is #24.  Of course, plenty can change in the next 7 months. 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/news/2012/2612596.html

For clarity, this is high school only not college talent.

[astrosfan76]

Yeah, my bad.

[roadrunner]

BA has early draft rankings (not a mock draft, just prospect status).  Their top two jive with the McTaggart article, with Buxton at #1 and Giolito at #2.  McCullers is only at #9 and Nick Williams (kid from Galveston) is #24.  Of course, plenty can change in the next 7 months. 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/news/2012/2612596.html

Buxton is in Heck's wheelhouse: http://rise.espn.go.com/baseball/articles/2011/09/14-Byron-Buxton.aspx

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

Wait, there's someone in this world named Walker Weickel?  What's his superhero identity?

[JaneDoe]

Wait, there's someone in this world named Walker Weickel?  What's his superhero identity?

He drives the Oscar Meyer Weiniemobile.

[Reuben]

Wait, there's someone in this world named Walker Weickel?  What's his superhero identity?

I don't know, but it's a good bet that Stryker Trahan is his arch-enemy. And Max Fried is probably a grizzled mentor type to him.

[astrosfan76]

With a name like Cecchini, you know there's another kid with malicious intent. He's in district here, so I'll have to check in when he's in town.

[astrosfan76]

Assorted thoughts from their chat:

this year, the college class is pretty thin (but we'll have a College Top 100 list on the site soon) as more and more teams are aggressively signing the top prospects out of high school. The high school class this year has very good depth, so it's an easy win for the HS side for me.

Wes (Louisiana): Who do you think the Astros will select with the 1st pick and who do you think is the best player in the draft?

Conor Glassey: Too early to tell, but it wouldn't surprise me if it was Buxton. I had a crosschecker tell me he's the best player in this year's draft.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/chat/2012/2612600.html

[astrosfan76]

Mayo has a very good top 50 list up with scouting reports.  The scouting reports aren't exhaustive, but definitely aren't anything to complain about, especially for free.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/

[juliogotay]

Mayo has a very good top 50 list up with scouting reports.  The scouting reports aren't exhaustive, but definitely aren't anything to complain about, especially for free.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/

I'll take one of each. Appel sounds pretty damn good by his write-up. May not be far from ready.

[astrosfan76]

I'll take one of each. Appel sounds pretty damn good by his write-up. May not be far from ready.

Appel sounds very good by this report.  Giolito sounds very good, also, but, all things equal, I would guess they would go with Appel.  There's nothing wrong with taking a good defensive shortstop with some offensive potential high, but I don't see the fascination with Marrero at this point.  Not to the point of him being an option for #1 overall. 

[At Ease]

Appel's report sounds good, but doesn't seem to match his season at Stanford last year.

[jbm]

I've seen him twice.  He's a nice pitcher, but I would hope for someone much more promising with the number one pick. 

[astrosfan76]

Well, if Law becomes scouting director/whatever, we may be able to take some of the guesswork out. Honestly, I'm pretty underwhelmed by his scouting reports, seems more like a good player than a franchise-type player.
http://llcdn8.twitvid.com/twitvidvideosv2/H/X/I/HXIHZ.mp4?e=1325269200&h=bf2a5e4bec8a2e3a6cc20909455e1a97l

[astrosfan76]

Farmstros had a good interview up today with Jim Callis regarding the draft and some farm coverage. 

http://farmstros.blogspot.com/2012/02/interview-with-jim-callis.html

[jbm]

Thanks for the link.  Interesting discussion on the dynamics related to the cap.  Depressing to again be told about the weakness of the class. 

[Travis]

Thanks for the link.  Interesting discussion on the dynamics related to the cap.  Depressing to again be told about the weakness of the class. 

Agreed, thought it looks like we'll have our pick of the 2013 class as well.

[astrosfan76]

Thanks for the link.  Interesting discussion on the dynamics related to the cap.  Depressing to again be told about the weakness of the class. 

Yeah, it's not a terrible draft, but it would be nice if there was a clear #1 guy, or group of guys, you could say are worth that large of a bonus.  It seems like they have more options now with the possibility of drafting a guy who'll sign for $5M and using the savings on other players.  It's similar to what Pittsburgh did a couple of years back when they drafted Tony Sanchez with the #4 pick and going well over slot on some players later in the draft.  But, maybe there are some Archie Bradley-types who step up their games or someone like Giolito refines his game and becomes that guy that we have to pick.

[Travis]

Baseball America's initial top 100: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/early-draft-preview/2012/2612884.html (the list itself is free)

[Reuben]

Farmstros had a good interview up today with Jim Callis regarding the draft and some farm coverage. 

http://farmstros.blogspot.com/2012/02/interview-with-jim-callis.html

For those of us too lazy to listen to a 15-min interview, did he say anything notable about the Astros?

[jbm]

My recollection from hearing it this morning:

Went over what he thought were the top five possibilies for #1 pick:  Appel, high school pitcher from CA, Marrero - shortstop from ASU, catcher from UF, and a high school SS IIRC.

They then discussed how the allotment for the top pick is 7.something million.  If the Astros use the full amount (or go over, god forbid), it leaves less money left under the cap.  If you exceed the cap, then you pay a fine and lose a pick or two (depending on how much you exceed it).  So......, a factor in choosing who to pick might be how much the pick is expected to get.  A "cheaper" #1 will leave them more room to go after over-slot types later in the draft.  Two of the players were Boras' clients.

He talked about the thinness of the overall class.  For example, Springer would be in the mix for #1 if he was going out this year.

Threw out a Verlander comp on Appel.

He then went over interesting amateurs to watch in the Houston area, both college and high school.  Farmstros will try to get him back later in the year.

There is probably more that I forgot.  It has been hours.  

[Reuben]

Thanks!

[At Ease]

7IP 2H 1ER 5K in the season debut for Appel vs. #11 Vanderbilt.

[juliogotay]

7IP 2H 1ER 5K in the season debut for Appel vs. #11 Vanderbilt.

Salary drive.

[astrosfan76]

7IP 2H 1ER 5K in the season debut for Appel vs. #11 Vanderbilt.

Stephen Goff tweeted that sources indicate that the Astros really like Appel (but, of course, it is really early). He also tweeted that they are looking at or soon to be attending games for Appel, Marrero, Giolito, McCullers, and Wacha. But, I imagine they'll look at, at least, that many more guys for the #1 pick.

[jbm]

Wacha is a potential top pick?  I hope someone steps it up and stands out from this crowd.

Thanks for reminding me college baseball has started. At this moment, baseball is being played at minute maid on MLB TV. 

[astrosfan76]

Wacha is a potential top pick?  I hope someone steps it up and stands out from this crowd.

Thanks for reminding me college baseball has started. At this moment, baseball is being played at minute maid on MLB TV. 

I didn't even know who the guy was until I found him on Mayo's list (#17). Doesn't sound like he's that special of a player; not #1 special, at least.

[Reuben]

I didn't even know who the guy was until I found him on Mayo's list (#17). Doesn't sound like he's that special of a player; not #1 special, at least.

Maybe's he's potentially #40 (or whenever the 2nd round starts) special?

[Reuben]

Maybe's he's potentially #40 (or whenever the 2nd round starts) special?

Or, wait. The Astros will get a sandwich-round pick for Barmes, right? I guess that'd be their 2nd pick.

[astrosfan76]

Or, wait. The Astros will get a sandwich-round pick for Barmes, right? I guess that'd be their 2nd pick.

Yeah, they get a supplemental pick at 41 and they kick off the second-round at 59.

[Ebby Calvin]

Yeah, they get a supplemental pick at 41 and they kick off the second-round at 59.

No kidding.  I like Barmes more and more.

[tlott33]

Maybe's he's potentially #40 (or whenever the 2nd round starts) special?

No, he's at least a top 20 pick. Big bodied right-hander (6'6", 225) from Texas A&M. He's a got a good arm and I think he still has room to grow. He sits around 91-94 with a decent breaking ball but has a lot of room to improve. He doesn't really know where the ball is going. He throws strikes but possesses very little command.

[jbm]

That's similar to my thoughts on him. Just saw him once.  He was intriguing, but not overall number one intriguing.

[astrosfan76]

Opening weekend stats for some of the top college guys:

Deven Marrero (AZ State) 3-11 2 RBI 3 R 1 SB
Mike Zunino (Florida) 5-12 2 RBI 1 R 1 SB
Victor Roache (GA Southern) 4-10 3 RBI 4 R 2 HR

Kevin Gausman (LSU) 6 IP 4 H 1 ER 2 BB 7 K
Mark Appel (Stanford) 7 IP 2 H 1 ER 2 BB 5 K
Michael Wacha (T A&M) 5 2/3 IP 1 H 3 BB 8 K

Came across a little more info on some of these performances:

Zunino's line looks a little less impressive when you see that 4 of his 7 outs came on strikeouts.

On the mound, it was more of the same from Appel. 97 MPH at the start of the game and wound down to the low 90's. He had inconsistent secondary pitches and ended up allowing 2 hits and K'd 5 in 7 IP. Good not great.

Still early.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/2/20/2811827/college-prospect-notes-opening-weekend#storyjump

[juliogotay]

Appel is sounding like a closer at this point in his development.

[jbm]

I watched a bit of the UF game against Cal Irvine. Saw one of his Ks.  Was brutal. Two terrible swings at curveballs down and away.  Didn't look like he recognized em.  Just saw one AB though.

[MusicMan]

I watched a bit of the UF game against Cal Irvine. Saw one of his Ks.  Was brutal. Two terrible swings at curveballs down and away.  Didn't look like he recognized em.  Just saw one AB though.

Straight ball, I hit very good...

[tbone421998]

Michael Wacha (T A&M) 5 2/3 IP 1 H 3 BB 8 K

Wacha only went 5 2/3 because or rain.  They finished that game on Saturday.

[juliogotay]

Interview with Appel. Sounds like he'd be excited to be drafted by Houston. http://www.astroscounty.com/

[astrosfan76]

Appel with another strong start tonight against the Longhorns:

7 IP 3 H 1 R 3 BB 10 K

The one run was inherited in the 8th.  I don't know how strong of an offensive team Texas is, but results-wise, he's making his case.

[Travis]

Just curious (for anyone): How many players, realistically, do you think are in contention for the #1 pick?

[astrosfan76]

Just curious (for anyone): How many players, realistically, do you think are in contention for the #1 pick?

Well, it could depend on who you ask. Different pundits will have different opinions, but I guess it really boils down to who the Astros like. Right now, I would guess Appel, Marrero, and Giolito are the main guys, with Gausman, McCullers, and Buxton being a legitimate part of the discussion. I think I've heard all those names linked to them, with the possible exception of Gausman.

[MusicMan]

The one run was inherited in the 8th.  I don't know how strong of an offensive team Texas is, but results-wise, he's making his case.

My initial impression is that this is a very weak Texas team offensively.  Of course, losing two of your top players for the season before a pitch is thrown will hurt any team.

[austro]

My initial impression is that this is a very weak Texas team offensively.  Of course, losing two of your top players for the season before a pitch is thrown will hurt any team.

Only one of those players (Walla) was involved in the offense.

I think Augie is in a tough place: his program is sufficiently elite that he can recruit extremely well-regarded prospects, but a significant percentage of those recruits wind up accepting pro contracts. It makes one wonder whether he might actually be better off by recruiting slightly less attractive prospects.

[juliogotay]

Well, it could depend on who you ask. Different pundits will have different opinions, but I guess it really boils down to who the Astros like. Right now, I would guess Appel, Marrero, and Giolito are the main guys, with Gausman, McCullers, and Buxton being a legitimate part of the discussion. I think I've heard all those names linked to them, with the possible exception of Gausman.

I read a piece recently about the draft when Houston last had the first pick. The Nevin pick. The scouting dept. wanted Jeter. Drayton pushed for Nevin because he was a college guy and would be ready for the majors sooner.

[Ron Brand]

I read a piece recently about the draft when Houston last had the first pick. The Nevin pick. The scouting dept. wanted Jeter. Drayton pushed for Nevin because he was a college guy and would be ready for the majors sooner.

I'm not sure that Jeter would have grown up to be JETER without being in the Yankee farm system that was in place at that time.

[Reuben]

I'm not sure that Jeter would have grown up to be JETER without being in the Yankee farm system that was in place at that time.

You're right, he would've been blocked by Andujar Cedeno and Orlando Miller in the Astros' system, so he probably would've just given up and faded away.

[Ron Brand]

You're right, he would've been blocked by Andujar Cedeno and Orlando Miller in the Astros' system, so he probably would've just given up and faded away.

Cute, but that's not what I meant. I remember reading something a while back (and maybe posting a link to it) about some care and instruction and opportunities that were given to him because of some circumstances within the Yankee farm system that would've been unlikely to have been extended to him in the Astro system.

[astrosfan76]

Tough break for Victor Roache. He probably wasn't going to go #1, but he was most likely a top 10, possibly top 5 pick before breaking his wrist diving for a ball yesterday. He's expected to miss the season, which could really hurt his stock, if he isn't able to prove his health before the draft.

[hostros7]

I read a piece recently about the draft when Houston last had the first pick. The Nevin pick. The scouting dept. wanted Jeter. Drayton pushed for Nevin because he was a college guy and would be ready for the majors sooner.

There was an interesting anecdote on this topic posted here, although I don't remember the source.  Essentially, the amateur scout advocating Jeter left after the club took Nevin because he claimed he staked his entire rep on Jeter and the team still didn't listen, so he figured is opinion just wasn't valued.

[Ron Brand]

There was an interesting anecdote on this topic posted here, although I don't remember the source.  Essentially, the amateur scout advocating Jeter left after the club took Nevin because he claimed he staked his entire rep on Jeter and the team still didn't listen, so he figured is opinion just wasn't valued.

Hal Newhouser. He'd been following Jeter for a while and had built a good relationship with him, and reportedly told his boss that no one was worth $1 million to sign but if anyone was, it was Derek Jeter. Instead of taking a kid out of high school and paying him that much, they went with the CWS MVP Phil Nevin, who was highly regarded and only cost them $700,000. Newhouser thought he could get Jeter signed for $750k, others thought it would take a million to keep him from going to Michigan to play baseball.

[Reuben]

Hal Newhouser. He'd been following Jeter for a while and had built a good relationship with him, and reportedly told his boss that no one was worth $1 million to sign but if anyone was, it was Derek Jeter. Instead of taking a kid out of high school and paying him that much, they went with the CWS MVP Phil Nevin, who was highly regarded and only cost them $700,000. Newhouser thought he could get Jeter signed for $750k, others thought it would take a million to keep him from going to Michigan to play baseball.

This is kinda off-topic, but I just looked up Newhouser's stats on bb-ref. I knew he was a HOFer, but didn't realize how great his peak was. In 1944-46, he went 29-9, 25-9, 26-9, with ERAs of 2.22, 1.81, and 1.94, finishing 1st, 1st, and 2nd in MVP voting. Yeah, the competition was thinned out some by WWII, but that is just an amazing 3 years there.

Apparently he knew something about scouting too.

[chuck]

I read a piece recently about the draft when Houston last had the first pick. The Nevin pick. The scouting dept. wanted Jeter. Drayton pushed for Nevin because he was a college guy and would be ready for the majors sooner.

As much as I would love to hang every organizational fuck up on Drayton the Jeter decision happened before Drayton's tenure as owner.

[Reuben]

As much as I would love to hang every organizational fuck up on Drayton the Jeter decision happened before Drayton's tenure as owner.

juliogotay above was referring to this article, which claims "Drayton McLane wanted them to take a college player who could get to the Astrodome quickly. And because McLane had just purchased the team from John McMullen, his word was the only one that counted."

This Chron article from last year says "On July 24, 1992... it was announced Drayton McLane had purchased the Astros for $117 million". I don't know when the draft was that year, and it's certainly possible that noted dumbass Phil Rogers is FOS here, but I find it easy to believe- even if he wasn't officially the owner when the draft happened, it's possible he was pulling the strings earlier, ala Crane at the trade deadline last year.

[roadrunner]

And there's really no reason to give Drayton the benefit of the doubt.

[juliogotay]

Well, it could depend on who you ask. Different pundits will have different opinions, but I guess it really boils down to who the Astros like. Right now, I would guess Appel, Marrero, and Giolito are the main guys, with Gausman, McCullers, and Buxton being a legitimate part of the discussion. I think I've heard all those names linked to them, with the possible exception of Gausman.

I just read on a UT board (Rivals) that Giolito hit 100 today on the gun.

[astrosfan76]

I just read on a UT board (Rivals) that Giolito hit 100 today on the gun.

Nice. I really hope that they're willing to buck tradition and draft him if he's the best player available, even if he is an HS RHP.

[juliogotay]

Nice. I really hope that they're willing to buck tradition and draft him if he's the best player available, even if he is an HS RHP.

I don't know about his command or if he has any secondary pitches. I really don't wish to see this pick spent on a closer.

[moriartp]

Nice. I really hope that they're willing to buck tradition and draft him if he's the best player available, even if he is an HS RHP.

For all the things the new front office may be accused of, bowing to tradition doesn't seem to be one of them. I also think the "no HS RHP has gone 1-1" thing is a little overblown. It's more a matter of there usually being safer bets to deliver on talent than HS pitchers (how many HS lefties have gone 1-1?). But if Giolito or any other prep pitcher separates himself from the pack, I don't think they'll hesitate to draft him.

[astrosfan76]

I don't know about his command or if he has any secondary pitches. I really don't wish to see this pick spent on a closer.

I haven't heard any concern that he'll end up in the pen. 

The top high school prospect for the 2012 draft, there is early speculation that Giolito could be the first high school righthander to be selected first overall. He has everything you can ask for in a prep arm. He stands at 6-foot-6, 230 pounds with broad shoulders and strong legs. He sat in the low to mid 90s last summer, but took a step forward this fall and has been easily reaching the high 90s. He has a low-80s curveball with sharp, downward break and a good changeup with a sink. He has an easy delivery and can lull hitters to sleep with his slow tempo before he explodes toward the plate.

He allowed only 1 hit and 0 walks in 6 1/3 last night, striking out 8. 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/02/giolito-hits-triple-digits/

[Reuben]

The fact that he has an "easy delivery" is nice to hear. Whether the Astros take him or not probably won't just come down to "is he likely to be a better MLB player than Appel (or whoever)", but "is he likely to have an injury that destroys his career?"

[juliogotay]

The fact that he has an "easy delivery" is nice to hear. Whether the Astros take him or not probably won't just come down to "is he likely to be a better MLB player than Appel (or whoever)", but "is he likely to have an injury that destroys his career?"

How big a factor will signability be in the decision?

[pots]

How big a factor will signability be in the decision?

I would think with the new rules, this wouldn't be an issue anymore.  At least not for the #1 pick. 

[Ebby Calvin]

How big a factor will signability be in the decision?

For some reason I read this as "How big a tractor..."  Then I remembered Drayton's gone.

[juliogotay]

I would think with the new rules, this wouldn't be an issue anymore.  At least not for the #1 pick. 

I hope not because the kid is very intrigueing.

[jbm]

With the total bonus limit, I would imagine they would be less likely to take him, whether he is signable or not.  He has more leverage than the college guys, and demanding a way over slot bonus could really screw you with the rest of the picks. 

[roadrunner]

With the total bonus limit, I would imagine they would be less likely to take him, whether he is signable or not.  He has more leverage than the college guys, and demanding a way over slot bonus could really screw you with the rest of the picks. 

I think there are a lot of factors that need to be considered.  If he becomes the #1 overall pick in this year's draft, he should realize that doesn't necessarily mean he will be #1 overall years later if he decides to attend college.  I think if you become #1 overall you take the money and run to the big leagues.  No reason to mess around in college and risk losing the lottery ticket.  Additionally, this is known as a weak draft and even if he performs well in college he still may not be good enough to warrant a top 10 pick years later.

The draft pool will be interesting to see how these guys balance out their payouts.  You still have 9 other picks that you can balance with college seniors who don't have as much leverage.

[jbm]

I think there are a lot of factors that need to be considered.  If he becomes the #1 overall pick in this year's draft, he should realize that doesn't necessarily mean he will be #1 overall years later if he decides to attend college.  I think if you become #1 overall you take the money and run to the big leagues.  No reason to mess around in college and risk losing the lottery ticket.  Additionally, this is known as a weak draft and even if he performs well in college he still may not be good enough to warrant a top 10 pick years later.

I don't think his agent will use this argument in the negotiation.

[astrosfan76]

With the total bonus limit, I would imagine they would be less likely to take him, whether he is signable or not.  He has more leverage than the college guys, and demanding a way over slot bonus could really screw you with the rest of the picks. 

His agent will have fun proving he's worth over $1M more than Dylan Bundy, then.  Gerrit Cole received $8M last year.  Since the days of signing draft picks to MLB contracts (thus spreading out the bonus) are gone, it would be pretty illogical to gamble 3 years of college for an extra 800K, especially if it costs him more than that difference over the course of his career.  Who's to say that a team will be willing to go that much over slot for him in 3 years, anyway?

[jbm]

I'm not saying that your point is without merit.  It is certainly valid, and I admittedly understand little about the dynamics any year, much less the more complex dynamics under the new arrangement. 

However, I'd be surprised if his agent doesn't have a different view than you have given.  He won't be comparing him to Dylan Bundy, and he won't be comparing him to Gerrit Cole, he'll be comparing him to the whatever figure is alloted to the first pick and bargaining for more, just like every agent for every number one pick before him has done.  He'll also be dealing with a team that certainly needs help, has stated that it intends to build through the draft, and a team that already faces media pressure as unwilling to pay.  Of course, that dynamic exists with any player they take, but a high-schooler has the wild card the college players don't. 

[astrosfan76]

I'm not saying that your point is without merit.  It is certainly valid, and I admittedly understand little about the dynamics any year, much less the more complex dynamics under the new arrangement. 

However, I'd be surprised if his agent doesn't have a different view than you have given.  He won't be comparing him to Dylan Bundy, and he won't be comparing him to Gerrit Cole, he'll be comparing him to the whatever figure is alloted to the first pick and bargaining for more, just like every agent for every number one pick before him has done.  He'll also be dealing with a team that certainly needs help, has stated that it intends to build through the draft, and a team that already faces media pressure as unwilling to pay.  Of course, that dynamic exists with any player they take, but a high-schooler has the wild card the college players don't. 

I'm sure the agent will be using all those tricks, and more, but teams will be countering relative the new draft dynamics.  The Pirates gave Cole an $8M flat bonus at 1/1 last season.  That was over slot, but there were no real punishments.  Sure, Bud was ticked that they spent something like $17M on the draft, but there wasn't anything really that he could do.

With every draft in the foreseeable future, teams are going to have to weigh what was a recommendation as a much more stable target.  Yeah, they can move money around, but how much will they be willing to?  Any team picking there is going to need more than 1 guy, so unless we're looking at a class with an uber-prospect followed by junk, prospects aren't going to have as much leverage.  Even in that scenario, teams will always be counter that the prospect won't make that much more at 1/1 than he would then, granted the team is offering anywhere close to slot.

I do agree that HS players, in general, gained a little more leverage under the new system, but I think the amount of leverage dwindles the closer to the top a pick is.

[Reuben]

I'm really curious to see how it plays out, too. I don't really have any idea if this reduces or increases teams' leverage over high picks. To my understanding, if the Astros, say (an extreme example) declined to sign their #2-10 picks, they wouldn't be able to just re-allocate that money towards the #1 pick. They have whatever the slot if for the #1 pick, and if they go over by much then they can lose their 1st-round pick next year, which I'm guessing we won't see happen very often, with any team.

I do agree that HS players, in general, gained a little more leverage under the new system, but I think the amount of leverage dwindles the closer to the top a pick is.

I think this is probably pretty accurate.

[astrosfan76]

I'm really curious to see how it plays out, too. I don't really have any idea if this reduces or increases teams' leverage over high picks. To my understanding, if the Astros, say (an extreme example) declined to sign their #2-10 picks, they wouldn't be able to just re-allocate that money towards the #1 pick. They have whatever the slot if for the #1 pick, and if they go over by much then they can lose their 1st-round pick next year, which I'm guessing we won't see happen very often, with any team.I think this is probably pretty accurate.

A team can go over on any pick as long as they don't exceed their 10 round allotment. So, if they go $1M over on their 1st rounder, they're okay as long as they save that much with their other picks. But, if they don't sign one of their picks, they lose that pick's value from their total allotment. So, if the Astros sign 1/1 for $8.2M ($1M over slot), they'd have to sign the rest of their picks through Round 10 for $3M, instead of $4M. If they sign any pick after Round 10 for more than $100K (or $150K), that counts against the 10 round total, as well.

[roadrunner]

A team can go over on any pick as long as they don't exceed their 10 round allotment. So, if they go $1M over on their 1st rounder, they're okay as long as they save that much with their other picks. But, if they don't sign one of their picks, they lose that pick's value from their total allotment. So, if the Astros sign 1/1 for $8.2M ($1M over slot), they'd have to sign the rest of their picks through Round 10 for $3M, instead of $4M. If they sign any pick after Round 10 for more than $100K (or $150K), that counts against the 10 round total, as well.

The first penalty threshold is just a tax, right?  If Postolos is serious about spending as much as possible on young talent I wonder if they're open to falling into the taxable area.

[astrosfan76]

The first penalty threshold is just a tax, right?  If Postolos is serious about spending as much as possible on young talent I wonder if they're open to falling into the taxable area.

There are different tiers of penalties.  0-5% over is a 75% penalty on every dollar spent over the cap.  After that, they get penalties plus they start losing draft picks.  5-10% is 75% + the loss of a 1st-round pick.  11-15% is 100% tax on overage plus the loss of a 1st and 2nd-round picks.  15-20% is 100% on overage plus the loss of the next two 1st-rounders.  So, ~$560K is the most they can spend in the draft without losing picks.

Added note:  100K is the most allowed on a pick after the 10th round, to correct an earlier post.

[S.P. Rodriguez]

There are different tiers of penalties.  0-5% over is a 75% penalty on every dollar spent over the cap.  After that, they get penalties plus they start losing draft picks.  5-10% is 75% + the loss of a 1st-round pick.  11-15% is 100% tax on overage plus the loss of a 1st and 2nd-round picks.  15-20% is 100% on overage plus the loss of the next two 1st-rounders.  So, ~$560K is the most they can spend in the draft without losing picks.

Added note:  100K is the most allowed on a pick after the 10th round, to correct an earlier post.

Thanks for explaining this, as I was mostly confused by the new rules.  Now I'm not confused, just baffled by the thought process the players and owners put into this.

[roadrunner]

Thanks for explaining this, as I was mostly confused by the new rules.  Now I'm not confused, just baffled by the thought process the players and owners put into this.

It's not perfect but I can't think of a better solution.  I know a lot of the experts are critical of the new system because it limits the smaller markets from overspending in the draft to keep up with the big guys, which makes sense except at the end of the day the bigger markets can still outspend the smaller markets in the draft if they want to.  And the international game has proven to be almost exclusively for the big markets.  The draft and pursuit of international talent should be a way for the worst teams to get the best players regardless of market, and that's what this system is trying to achieve. 

The supplemental competitive balance/small market draft round (or whatever they're calling it) that they have added still helps the smaller guys get a leg up.

[moriartp]

And the international game has proven to be almost exclusively for the big markets.

Nonsense.

[roadrunner]

Nonsense.

Yeah I was basing that off of just the big names I hear about in the national media.  I probably should've tried to do a little research

[Reuben]

Nonsense.

And that list is from a year ago, thus not including the two kids the Rangers threw big bucks at last summer, and the kid (Beras?) that they've supposedly signed but MLB may overturn due to questions about his age.

[astrosfan76]

I may be jumping the gun by calling it a night, but definitely a mixed bag for Appel against Fresno State tonight.  On the one hand, he struck out 11 and in 8 innings.  On the other hand, he gave up 8 hits, 2 of which were homeruns, 3 walks, and 7 R/ER.  I don't think he'll have too many outings like that, so it is encouraging that he's been striking out more than a batter per inning over the season.  One of the knocks on him coming into the season was that he didn't strike out enough hitters for a pitcher with his stuff, but he's racking them up over his last 2 outings. 

[roadrunner]

Speaking of the international signings, Luhnow with some loose lips at the SSAC...

http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2012/03/02/astros-gm-caused-stir-comparing-rangers-to-drunken-sailors/

[Ron Brand]

That's not much to apologize for.

They have a nice leg up right now. It'll come around eventually. Fuck 'em.

[astrosfan76]

That's not much to apologize for.

They have a nice leg up right now. It'll come around eventually. Fuck 'em.

The part they didn't publish was where he said that "that they're spending like drunken sailors and I hope they all get crabs."

On a related note, it would be nice if MLB voided their most-recent splash. I doubt they would see any kind of punishment themselves, especially since MLB has yet to punish the Orioles for signing the Korean kid too early. But, it would be a minor victory to us.

[Reuben]

That's not much to apologize for.

They have a nice leg up right now. It'll come around eventually. Fuck 'em.

What Shall We Do With the Rangers?

My vote:
Put 'em in the bilge and make 'em drink it

But, there's many good options.

[AppyAstros]

Sickles and Matt Garrioch have their first mock draft up:  Astros #1 pick: 

The Astros need talent. Their system is going the right direction and they need a top of the line pitcher. While Giolito may have a higher ceiling, history tells me that the college guy will be more of a sure thing. I have to go with more certainty and take my favorite college arm. Astros will take Kevin Gausman, RHP, LSU.

[Reuben]

Sickles and Matt Garrioch have their first mock draft up:  Astros #1 pick: 

Wow, I count 20 high-schoolers out of the top 31. And they have Appel falling to #5.

What's the story with Gausman?

[astrosfan76]

Wow, I count 20 high-schoolers out of the top 31. And they have Appel falling to #5.

What's the story with Gausman?

Gausman is a reason they use the term projectable on HS pitchers.  He was a tall, wiry kid out of HS in '10 (he's a draft-eligible sophomore) who could touch 95 as a senior, but worked more in the upper-80's and lower-90's with a flat fastball.  His secondary pitches weren't good at the time, either.  He's bumped that in the past 2 years to mid-upper 90's with movement, a plus curve, and "developing" change entering this season.  His K/BB ratio has been pretty ridiculous so far, sitting at 20/2 in 19 1/3 IP.  Goff tweeted that the Astros were at his last start (which, while not as bad as Appel's, wasn't great).  He probably has a legitimate shot at 1/1 if he proves Friday as an aberration.

[hostros7]

Golito out for season.  Should scratch him off the short list.

[MusicMan]

Golito out for season.  Should scratch him off the short list.

Damn.  Tough break for the kid.

[Froback]

Golito out for season.  Should scratch him off the short list.

You hate to see that for any young pitcher, but when you have the potential pay-off of being the #1 overall pick, I think it hurts that much more.

Do you have a link, what happend?

[Jacksonian]

You hate to see that for any young pitcher, but when you have the potential pay-off of being the #1 overall pick, I think it hurts that much more.

Do you have a link, what happend?

https://twitter.com/#!/BAHighSchool/status/177464029764268032

[astrosfan76]

That's a shame.  There was no guarantee that he would have been our #1 pick, but it does make the draft less deep at the top and removes a very legitimate option.  Callis sees the top 3 guys as Appel, Buxton, and Zimmer.  I didn't know too much about Zimmer, but here's a report:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/02/san-franciscos-kyle-zimmer-generates-early-draft-buzz/

[Jacksonian]

That's a shame.  There was no guarantee that he would have been our #1 pick, but it does make the draft less deep at the top and removes a very legitimate option.  Callis sees the top 3 guys as Appel, Buxton, and Zimmer.  I didn't know too much about Zimmer, but here's a report:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/02/san-franciscos-kyle-zimmer-generates-early-draft-buzz/

Zimmer's the one I'm watching to separate from the pack.

[astrosfan76]

Zimmer's the one I'm watching to separate from the pack.

He's not the proven horse that some of the others are, and he's fairly new to pitching, but the stuff and results seem to be there, so far.

[juliogotay]

He's not the proven horse that some of the others are, and he's fairly new to pitching, but the stuff and results seem to be there, so far.

That's a pretty glowing report. Most scouts think he's way better than Appel.

[astrosfan76]

That's a pretty glowing report. Most scouts think he's way better than Appel.

Throw in the whole 80 athlete line and Heck has to be drooling over him.

[moriartp]

Throw in the whole 80 athlete line and Heck has to be drooling over him.

Between '08 and '11, the Astros didn't take a college pitcher higher than the 3rd round. Whether that's a Heck thing, a Wade/Smith thing, or just chance, I've got no idea. Regardless, whatever trends developed in those years may well be broken this time around (especially at 1-1). All bets are off.

[astrosfan76]

Between '08 and '11, the Astros didn't take a college pitcher higher than the 3rd round. Whether that's a Heck thing, a Wade/Smith thing, or just chance, I've got no idea. Regardless, whatever trends developed in those years may well be broken this time around (especially at 1-1). All bets are off.

I see the athlete label not as a pitcher/position player thing, but just that Heck likes to draft guys that are athletic.  Lyles had scholarship offers for football, DDS was a 2-sport guy, Springer, Armstrong, etc.  With pitchers, he sees athletes as being able to repeat their mechanics more easily.  I don't know what Luhnow's thoughts/analyses are on the matter, but it is a preference that Heck has.

[astrosfan76]

Rough night for Zimmer:  6 IP 9 H 6 ER, but only 1 walk and 10 K.  I tracked the game for a little while and it seemed that a lot of the hits, especially early, just dropped in or for found holes.  I stopped tracking it after the first 3 runs. 

Appel, on the other hand, was much better in his start and is really starting to answer questions of whether he can dominate with his stuff.  He started a little shaky, giving up 2 runs in the first, but was really good after that inning.  He gave up 4 hits and 2 walks on the night while striking out 14 (a career high).  He had streaks of 11 and 12 batters retired in a row during the game, striking out the side to finish his night.

Zunino is another guy who is having a great season and could be in the discussion if he keeps up his pace.  He's very strong defensively, is a great leader, and has very good offensive potential.  He hit 15 HR last season and has 7 already this season. 

Couple of quotes from Perfect Game:

There was a lot of talk in the offseason about Stanford right-handed pitcher Mark Appel and his past inability to overwhelm opposing hitters. That concern is being lifted so far this spring, with Appel showing much more overpowering stuff than usual...Appel has always had the stuff to be a tremendous pitcher at the collegiate level. He's picking a good time to rise to the occasion.

It likely won't happen with Stanford right-handed pitcher Mark Appel putting together such a strong junior campaign thus far, but I'm warming up to the idea of Florida catcher Mike Zunino ending up the No. 2 pick in the MLB draft come June...For the season, he's now hitting .440 with seven home runs and 19 RBIs. On top of that, Zunino is an excellent defensive catcher and a fantastic leader. There's nothing not to like about Zunino.

 

It's still early, but with Giolito going down, it's hard to get excited about the HS players.  There just hasn't been much buzz about any of the other guys.  I've read Buxton's name some, but other than being a 5-tool CF (possibly RF down the road) and some labeling him as a cross between Justin & B.J. Upton, there's not much out there.  I guess it's normal at this stage of the season to hear more about HS pitchers than HS position players, with the instant gratification that radar guns provide, and all.  I mean, there are a couple of HS kids in the area who'll go in the 1st round, and I'm planning on seeing them play at some point, but neither are realistic options for 1/1.

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=6707

[MusicMan]

Gausman was supposedly hitting 102 on the gun last night.

[juliogotay]

Greg Lucas makes his case for Appel. http://www.foxsportshouston.com/03/11/12/Appel-making-move-to-be-Astros-No-1-draf/landing_astros.html?blockID=685570&feedID=6702

[pots]

"Whether the Astros select Appel with the first pick is still three months away. He will have to continue to pitch well and most importantly stay healthy. So, don't pencil his name at the top of the 2012 draft just yet."

"the starting rotation for 2014 might just have a new name you could pencil in."

The whole point of penciling something in is that it's a maybe (and can be erased).  Like saying frozen ice. 

[OregonStrosFan]

The whole point of penciling something in is that it's a maybe (and can be erased).  Like saying frozen ice.

Or like saying baseball tradition...  (FYB!!!)

[astrosfan76]

Callis had a few relevant notes in his latest BA column:

Zimmer's results, or lack of, on Friday were at least partly due to blister issues. He spoke to a scouting director who has a fairly high pick who likes him more than Appel, particularly "the athleticism in his delivery." Out of the pitchers, Zimmer is his top pick.

The director's favorite prospect, though, is easily Buxton. He grades him as having 70s in raw power, speed, defense in CF, and arm. To round out the 5 tools, he gives him 70 potential as a hitter, cause, you know, it just looks neater that way. Also,

The director likes him more than Bubba Starling, the best athlete in the 2011 draft, saying that Buxton has a better package of tools, a better swing and better ability to recognize breaking pitches.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2012/2613102.html

[jbm]

Thanks for the link.  Interesting note on Buxton.  I suppose if the Astros graded him even close to that high, then he is a no brainer.

Side note on Clemens was interesting also.  Never heard the reliever talk until now, but I'm not sure what he meant by saying Clemens has a "similar profile" to Cosart.  I've only seen one inning, but he looked much smoother and showed better fastball command than Cosart, and I can't imagine his secondary pitches compare to Cosart's.

[juliogotay]

Thanks for the link.  Interesting note on Buxton.  I suppose if the Astros graded him even close to that high, then he is a no brainer.

Side note on Clemens was interesting also.  Never heard the reliever talk until now, but I'm not sure what he meant by saying Clemens has a "similar profile" to Cosart.  I've only seen one inning, but he looked much smoother and showed better fastball command than Cosart, and I can't imagine his secondary pitches compare to Cosart's.

If Cosart and Clemens end up in the pen this team has a long way to go in rebuilding a rotation with plus arms.

[astrosfan76]

Thanks for the link.  Interesting note on Buxton.  I suppose if the Astros graded him even close to that high, then he is a no brainer.

I don't know how he's looking this year and different scouts are going to see things differently, but here's a rehash of a link from September.  This guy breaks his present/future grades as:

Hitting-40/50 Not terrible, and would still qualify as a tool in the "5-tool player", but definitely not a 70, either.  If I remember right, that's the difference between a .280 and .300 hitter.

Power-45/60

Running-75/75

Arm-55/60

Glove-45/55

Again, this was from September and different scouts see different things, but here's Perfect Game's report on Starling as a senior (all future grades):

Hitting-60 (his biggest question mark)

Power-70 (measuring raw power, not necessarily usable power)

Speed-70 (60 home-first, possible 80 on the bases and in the outfield)

Arm-70

Defense-80 (GG tools in CF with exceptionally good jumps)



http://rise.espn.go.com/baseball/articles/2011/09/14-Byron-Buxton.aspx

http://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=213154

[cougar]

Just as an update, Simmer pitched a CG 3 hit shutout with 4 walks and 11 Ks.  FB was in the "upper 90s".

Zunino went 2-3 yesterday, and is batting .423 with 7 homers and 24 RBIs.  Line is .423/.487/.844.

[astrosfan76]

Gausman threw 8 2/3 on Friday giving up 1 run on 4 hits and 4 walks, striking out 11.  He was upper 90's early and 94-95 in the late innings.  He was outpitched in the game by Chris Stratton. 

Stanford had the week off, so nothing to report on Appel.

Callis sees Appel, Buxton, and Zimmer as the top guys for 1/1 at this point.  Said the other day (re: question about the Twins) that he doesn't see Buxton lasting to #3. 

[tlott33]

Wacha carries perfect game bid into the eighth in 4-0 win over Pepperdine.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/03/game-report-michael-wacha-dominates-for-texas-am/

[jbm]

Listening to the Baseball America show, Manuel was talking like Wacha's improvement over last year has put him in the mix for the top slot.  70 fastball, 70 change, sliders flashes plus.  He also mentioned that:

Wacha potentially signing for slightly less than Appel (possible home area discount) might be relevant in a capped-bonus environment; and

Luhnow is thought as a college-inclined guy, but Buxton is rated pretty high, already starting to show more skills over last year. 

[astrosfan76]

Listening to the Baseball America show, Manuel was talking like Wacha's improvement over last year has put him in the mix for the top slot.  70 fastball, 70 change, sliders flashes plus.  He also mentioned that:

Wacha potentially signing for slightly less than Appel (possible home area discount) might be relevant in a capped-bonus environment; and

Luhnow is thought as a college-inclined guy, but Buxton is rated pretty high, already starting to show more skills over last year. 

From the limited amount that I've read on him, it sounds like his changeup is his best pitch.  Does he get much movement on his fastball?  Appel's is known to be fairly straight, but he has a few more ticks on his fastball. 

I'm curious to see more written about Buxton.  He's not going to get much attention from the competition he faces this spring, so I wonder what is meant by him showing more skills.  Are his tools louder than last year?  Is he showing a better approach at the plate and/or in the field?  I'm not faulting you, I just don't know what to read into those statements.

On a side note, a few other weekend performances:

Gausman: 5 IP 6 H 2 ER 5 BB 8 K (seems to have lost the strike zone the past couple of weekends)
Appel: 9 IP 6 H 2 ER 2 BB 7 K (pitching for first time in 16 days after Stanford had previous week off plus rainout on Saturday; 3 of the hits and the 2 runs came in the 9th)
Zimmer: 9 IP 5 H 0 ER/R 1 BB 9 K

[jbm]

I just saw Wacha once last year and my memories are vague.  I remember a tall lanky kid whose fastball got a lot of groundballs.  It may have had some sink, or might have just been the downhill plane they talk about.  I don't remember many hitter squaring him up.  I also don't remember him pounding the zone the way they describe him now.  I remember Appel much more, and thought of him as a pretty advanced pitcher for a college player, but even though he might have more ticks on the gun, the fastball didn't miss a lot of bats. 

The comment on Buxton was pretty much what I said.  They mentioned the lack of competition, but said since last year, there is greater evidence that the raw tools have shown some progress towards skills.  Nothing more specific.  As you mentioned earlier, they compared him to Starling as a five-tool raw high schooler.

[Navin R Johnson]

Here is some recent video of Wacha.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsH31_RiXJw

Doesn't look like he uses his lower body very much.

[tlott33]

Wacha's fastball is very straight, it is on a very good downward plane though. He does flash a very good change-up. He doesn't change his motion or arm speed at all and it has good movement to his arm side.

With Appel, his fastball has very good movement. He throws a lot of two-seamers and brings the ball off the outside corner and back very well. This is when I watched him last year, but what I would say is that he actually throws too few four seamers. He could use that rising fastball to his advantage to get more K's.

His K/9 has improved a lot this year so he may be doing that, but he does have very good movement on his two-seamer.

[tbone421998]

Wacha was named Big XII pitcher of the week after taking a no hitter into the 8th ending up with a 2 hitter.

[jbm]

All the college pitchers mentioned for the top pick got roughed up:
                        
                        IP      H     R     ER     BB    SO  Opponent
Mark Appel........8.0....12....6......6.......2.....5.....Arizona
Michael Wacha...6.1....12....5......4.......1.....5.....Missouri
Kyle Zimmer......7.1....10....4......4.......1.....6.....San Diego

 

[astrosfan76]

BA had a writeup on Zimmer's outing.  It has some good information, but this evaluation caught my eye:

“He’s a guy that will be able to eat innings,” said an AL scout who was on hand. “Even if he doesn’t become a front-of-the-rotation starter, he’ll be a solid No. 3 or No. 4 that can give you 200-plus (innings) in a season. That’s extremely valuable.

“He’s a special pitching prospect. There’s little to no risk with this guy.”

I guess the last sentence depends on where you draft him.  If he goes 1/1, he better be more than a solid #3 or #4, regardless of how many innings he pitches.  If that's his floor, he's a good guy to grab in the middle of the 1st, with the potential to be more.  But, I wouldn't want to be the scout who recommends Carl Pavano go #1 overall. 

[pots]

BA had a writeup on Zimmer's outing.  It has some good information, but this evaluation caught my eye:

I guess the last sentence depends on where you draft him.  If he goes 1/1, he better be more than a solid #3 or #4, regardless of how many innings he pitches.  If that's his floor, he's a good guy to grab in the middle of the 1st, with the potential to be more.  But, I wouldn't want to be the scout who recommends Carl Pavano go #1 overall. 

Close to gauranteed #3 or 4 with the possibility of a 1 or 2 isn't anything to sneeze at.  Especially in this years draft.

[astrosfan76]

Close to gauranteed #3 or 4 with the possibility of a 1 or 2 isn't anything to sneeze at.  Especially in this years draft.

A close to guaranteed #3 is nothing to sneeze at, but you'd have to buy hard into the upside.  Granted, that's one guy's evaluation (and others may have higher aspirations for him), but if you wind up with a #4 at 1/1, that's bad drafting.  Yeah, not every year is going to produce a Bryce Harper or even a Gerrit Cole, but this isn't a terrible year, either.  Losing Giolito does hurt, but there are still quality players around who would go high in any draft.  The guys at BA are thinking/hearing that Buxton is the best player, but they don't know if he'll go #1 (and that there are several other guys who they'd put on their short list).  It's kind of rehashing what's already been discussed in this thread, but they've heard from some scouts who like him more than Starling (and that they are pretty similar tools-wise). 

[jbm]

Last pitching lines for the three college pitchers:
                        
                        IP      H     R     ER     BB    SO  Opponent
Mark Appel........9.0....4.....2......2.......2.....3.....Washington
Michael Wacha...8.0....8.....3......3.......2.....8.....Oklahoma
Kyle Zimmer......8.0....6.....2......2.......0.....9.....Portland

[Jacksonian]

Last pitching lines for the three college pitchers:
                        
                        IP      H     R     ER     BB    SO  Opponent
Mark Appel........9.0....4.....2......2.......2.....3.....Washington

For a guy with his stuff his inability to miss college bats is remarkable.

[MusicMan]

For a guy with his stuff his inability to miss college bats is remarkable.

He scares me, and I really hope we go another direction.

[Jacksonian]

He scares me, and I really hope we go another direction.

My sense continues to be Zimmer.

[Reuben]

My sense continues to be Zimmer.

So you don't think they'll gamble on Buxton? Or are you thinking they want someone who will reach the majors quickly?

[Jacksonian]

So you don't think they'll gamble on Buxton? Or are you thinking they want someone who will reach the majors quickly?

I'm thinking Zimmer hasn't reached his ceiling, pitching over hitting, and at 1-1 college pitcher over high school anything when it's that close.

[astrosfan76]

Good read about Kevin Gausman

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=6839

[Travis]

Not exactly a glowing review of Mark Appel: http://www.bbprospectreport.com/2012/04/09/mark-appel-update#more-15864

[astrosfan76]

Not exactly a glowing review of Mark Appel: http://www.bbprospectreport.com/2012/04/09/mark-appel-update#more-15864

Well, depends on how you read it.  If his biggest concern is staying on top of the ball, that can be fixed, as can mechanical issues like flying open.  If a team sees really likes the potential of what they envision he could be, he's still a guy you take very high.  The author never dismisses the potential for Appel to be a frontline starter, just that a team that drafts him can't rush him to the big leagues and expect him to reach his potential. 

[Jacksonian]

Well, depends on how you read it.  If his biggest concern is staying on top of the ball, that can be fixed, as can mechanical issues like flying open.  If a team sees really likes the potential of what they envision he could be, he's still a guy you take very high.  The author never dismisses the potential for Appel to be a frontline starter, just that a team that drafts him can't rush him to the big leagues and expect him to reach his potential. 

I hear all of this stuff, but I still cannot get over the fact that he can't miss college bats.  With the number of mediocre college hitters he faces, a guy with his stuff should be in the 10+K/9IP range.  And, he's not.  If college hitters can see his pitches well enough to make that much contact I fear what pro hitters will do.

I read some of his evaluations, and I cannot help but think Kyle Farnsworth.

[jbm]

I agree.  Batters seeem to see the ball pretty well out of his hand. 

What is the author referring to about getting on top of the ball?  Is this about wrist orientation?  He also talks about him not having much of a downhill plane, which I assume is created by a higher release point, which I assume is largely a function of arm slot.  If so, I doubt he is going to raise his slot much over time. 

[Jacksonian]

And, as we discuss Appel, BA has their own opinion (behind the pay wall).  I believe they moved Appel down.

[S.P. Rodriguez]

Well, depends on how you read it.  If his biggest concern is staying on top of the ball, that can be fixed, as can mechanical issues like flying open.  If a team sees really likes the potential of what they envision he could be, he's still a guy you take very high.  The author never dismisses the potential for Appel to be a frontline starter, just that a team that drafts him can't rush him to the big leagues and expect him to reach his potential. 

I don't see how you read any ambiguity into that article.  Directly stated, the guy has velocity and that's it.  That's about as negative a statement as you can say about a pitcher considered a "top draft prospect". 

[JimR]

I agree.  Batters seeem to see the ball pretty well out of his hand. 

What is the author referring to about getting on top of the ball?  Is this about wrist orientation?  He also talks about him not having much of a downhill plane, which I assume is created by a higher release point, which I assume is largely a function of arm slot.  If so, I doubt he is going to raise his slot much over time. 

elbow above shoulder level

[astrosfan76]

I don't see how you read any ambiguity into that article.  Directly stated, the guy has velocity and that's it.  That's about as negative a statement as you can say about a pitcher considered a "top draft prospect". 

The biggest problem I have with Appel is that he does not consistently get on top of the ball, which is going to make his fastball velocity play down, and it also renders his slider, which can flash moments of hard bite, woefully hittable and inconsistent.

His fastball will flash occasional heavy, late sink. But too many fastballs lack the sort of dominant downhill plane I would want in a 6-foot-4 guy, and this means too many fastballs start up in the strike zone. This is going to translate to very ordinary numbers immediately for the amount of money he is going to receive, unless he makes some corrections right away.

Another concern I have is an inability to finish off hitters, which is the direct result of not keeping his delivery tight, coming open, his arm slot sinking, his fastball straightening out, his slider not biting, his change not deceptive.

Those relate to mechanical issues.  If he cleans up his mechanics, his fastball will play up, his slider will have more bite, etc.  He then goes on to talk about Appel needing time to develop, obviously to clean up those things.  

Here's another report written after Appel's start against Rice, when he K'd 14 batters (w/ video).  Interestingly, the author beams about Appel's 11-5 curve, while the other guy talks about Appel's slider.  Neither author admits that the other pitch exists.  

http://projectprospect.com/article/2012/03/11/mark-appel-scouting-report

[Reuben]

And, as we discuss Appel, BA has their own opinion (behind the pay wall).  I believe they moved Appel down.

I've got a BA subscription now (birthday present from my lovely wife), and I'm happy to look anything up, although I have to say I find their site difficult to use- hard to find the recent, most relevant articles.

What I assume you're referring to is a new column by Callis, not a ranking list. He says there's a "sense" from other teams that the Astros might not want to risk it with Buxton, he mentions the Appel K issue, mentions Zimmer's rise, and says Zunino would be the "safest #1 pick" this year but only has one standout tool (power, I think).

[Reuben]

Whoops, found the list. Buxton, Zunino, Zimmer, Appel, Gausman, Giolito, Wacha ("sleeper to go first overall") are the top 7. Marrero down to #13.

[At Ease]

ND tonight for Appel with a line of 9 IP 10 H 1R (0ER) 13 K...

and 150 pitches.

[astrosfan76]

A couple of the guys from BA went down to Georgia this weekend to watch Buxton.  They didn't see any scouts last night, when he reached base all 4 times, but, Astros, Mariners, Orioles, and Pirates are in attendance today.  Mariners were only ones to show up for BP. 

Run-down from last night:

Buxton smokes a 2B down the LF line in his first AB. Advances on SB and scores on pop-up that lands in no man's land

Buxton ripped a line drive 1B through the 6 hole in his 2nd AB. Quick, easy swing. Advanced on PB, stole 3rd easily, scores on 1B.

Buxton 2Bs but it was a lazy pop up in RC and OFs were playing very deep. Advances on F8 and scores on E4. Scored team's 3 runs.

Buxton walks on 4 straight balls w/ bases loaded in his 4th AB. Pitches weren't anywhere near the zone

and finally:

Buxton comes in to close it out. Faces one hitter and strikes him out. First few FB were 89-90. Last few were 93-94

[astrosfan76]

Not really news, but the club's really covering their bases with the upcoming draft:

"We're looking at everybody, and he's (Buxton) one of the guys we're looking at," Luhnow said. "We not only have the top pick, but we also have a compensation pick, so you never know how it's going to go. We're being comprehensive in our coverage. The guys we believe are in contention for that first pick, we're at almost every one of their games or every game, depending how easy it is to get there."

"We'll have a lot of discussions that will involve [owner] Jim [Crane] and [president and CEO] George [Postolos] and everybody and figure out what the decision is at the end. We don't know how the signability is going to work with the new [Collective Bargaining Agreement] rule or if it's going to be easy or hard. A lot of that will ultimately play out in the 48 hours leading up to the Draft."

http://houston.astros.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120415&content_id=28743512&notebook_id=28743514&vkey=notebook_hou&c_id=hou

[astrosfan76]

Here's the writeup of BA's trip to see Buxton (w/ video of BP and his ABs).  I'm not an expert at breaking down swings (or judging hitters, period), so what do you guys think of him?

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/04/game-report-byron-buxton-with-video/

[juliogotay]

Here's the writeup of BA's trip to see Buxton (w/ video of BP and his ABs).  I'm not an expert at breaking down swings (or judging hitters, period), so what do you guys think of him?

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/04/game-report-byron-buxton-with-video/

Not trying to pass myself off as any kind of expert but he doesn't have alot of extraneous movement which I believe to be a good thing. Very natural looking swing, looks very athletiic, which you'd expect with his tools. I don't think his swing would have to be tinkered with much by coaches.

[OregonStrosFan]

Klima (Baseball Prospect Report fka Baseball Beginnings) on Appel (w/ video). LINK

[Travis]

Keith Law in a chat today:

Joel (Bham)

Could you give your best guess on who the 1-5 draft picks will be based on the teams and what you have heard rumored? Not who they SHOULD pick, but who you thing they WILL pick. Thanks!

Klaw  (1:49 PM)

Buxton, Zimmer, Zunino, Appel, Gausman. But Houston is the big pivot here and Luhnow has just started to go out and see the candidates. Buxton could go anywhere from 1-6. Correa could go 1. Zimmer has been 90-92 the last two weeks and if the Twins don't take him at 2, he could fall to 6 or lower. It's really up in the air - as it is every year at this time.

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/43463

[astrosfan76]

Gausman with a gritty performance against a tough Kentucky offense:  7 IP 10 H 4 R/ER 1 BB 11 K

Some reports had him hitting triple digits.

[jbm]

The BA guys interviewed Buxton last night on their radio show. Nothing from the interview of note: he is a high school kid from the middle of nowhere Georgia who doesn't face good competition. He is committed to Georgia and is happy going there.  He feels he has a good glove, arm and speed, but needs to work on hitting, mainly driving the ball into gaps.

Manuel said with the uncertainty surrounding a high schooler, he still expects the Astros to take a college player.  This wasn't said in a critical way.

[astrosfan76]

Manuel said with the uncertainty surrounding a high schooler, he still expects the Astros to take a college player.  This wasn't said in a critical way.

I wouldn't really blame them, at this point.  Had Giolito stayed healthy, I was hopeful he could have been selected, but he also seemed to be a safer pick (and would move fairly quickly).  Still could be, I guess, but that ship (#1 this year) seems to have passed.  Buxton seems like he could become a good player, but I wouldn't blame them for picking a college player.  Unfortunately, they all seem to have warts, also.

[Reuben]

I wouldn't really blame them, at this point.  Had Giolito stayed healthy, I was hopeful he could have been selected, but he also seemed to be a safer pick (and would move fairly quickly).  Still could be, I guess, but that ship (#1 this year) seems to have passed.  Buxton seems like he could become a good player, but I wouldn't blame them for picking a college player.  Unfortunately, they all seem to have warts, also.

What about Zunino? I've read a lot about what a great year he's having, how he's a team leader, good with the pitchers, etc., and seen him referred to as a "safe" (and therefore presumably "unexciting") pick. What's the knock on him going #1, just that he doesn't have "superstar" written all over him as much as "above-average"?

[jbm]

I wouldn't really blame them, at this point.  Had Giolito stayed healthy, I was hopeful he could have been selected, but he also seemed to be a safer pick (and would move fairly quickly).  Still could be, I guess, but that ship (#1 this year) seems to have passed.  Buxton seems like he could become a good player, but I wouldn't blame them for picking a college player.  Unfortunately, they all seem to have warts, also.

I am in no position to evaluate these guys, but I do think the system is deeper and healthier than is commonly believed. Therefore, I think they can afford the risk of missing on a higher ceiling player.  That said, I'm expecting them to settle on a less risky college player.

[astrosfan76]

I am in no position to evaluate these guys, but I do think the system is deeper and healthier than is commonly believed. Therefore, I think they can afford the risk of missing on a higher ceiling player.  That said, I'm expecting them to settle on a less risky college player.

I think that we have a deep enough system that we can afford to let a guy develop, but missing on the #1 pick would hurt any system.  Of course, it wouldn't affect the other players in the system, but you're passing up a lot of really good players if you pick the wrong guy, a lot of guys who would be your top prospect.  I don't know enough about anyone to say if one of the top guys is right or wrong, though.

[pots]

What about Zunino? I've read a lot about what a great year he's having, how he's a team leader, good with the pitchers, etc., and seen him referred to as a "safe" (and therefore presumably "unexciting") pick. What's the knock on him going #1, just that he doesn't have "superstar" written all over him as much as "above-average"?

Read one article that described his defense as Ausmus like.  Seen a few lists that have him as 1/1.  He's my guess at who the Astros take (popped his 11th homerun of the season yesterday).  None of the pitchers standout, and I can't see them taking a risk with Buxton.  

[MusicMan]

Sickels sticking with Gausman to Astros in his latest mock

[astrosfan76]

Sickels sticking with Gausman to Astros in his latest mock

I could see it.  He'll have as many chances as anyone down the stretch to prove his worth, with several big games in the mix.  The talent is definitely there.

[Reuben]

Sickels sticking with Gausman to Astros in his latest mock

And he echos the rumors about them wanting to go with a college player "since it will take them less time to reach the majors and none of the high schoolers have truly elevated themselves over the college crop".

[astrosfan76]

Couple of chats today, courtesy of PerfectGame and BA.  Some of the more interesting notes:

-The President (or something) of PG had a writeup comparing Buxton to Correa, which they posted.  He explained that while most like Buxton more, he was firmly in the Correa camp.  Outside of speed, he grades Correa (a shortstop out of Puerto Rico) as superior in every tool.  He sees Buxton as a 3-tool guy with a chance to hit, but he's pretty bearish on his power being a tool.  If Buxton would show some power, it would make it close.  Either way, he still sees Buxton as a great talent. 

On Correa:

As good as Buxton’s arm is, no position player that we have ever seen has a better arm than Correa. He plays shortstop and is very smooth. Watching him throw across the infield is a real eye opener. Yes, it’s possible he will simply get too big for the position at some point, but so what. He profiles as one of the top 3B in the game. Correa can hit, he can hit top level pitching and he can hit it with outstanding power.

Goes on to say that Correa is the closest of those compared to A-Rod to being that good.  Pretty high praise.

-PG sees Gausman, Zimmer, Appell, and Buxton all having about 20% of going 1/1 with the other 20% being the field.  FWIW, they've heard from multiple sources that Zunino is not in the mix. 

-If given the pick, Callis would choose Buxton (says he's the best player), Rawnsley would go Zunino, Gausman, then Correa.  Both see Gausman as top pitching prospect right now.

Lots of other good stuff in the chats, especially the PG one.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1335368923

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=6910

[astrosfan76]

Weekend performances for some of the top college guys:

Appel-7 IP 8 H 1 R/ER 0 BB 10 K (5th 10K game; leads PAC in K's)
Zimmer-7 IP 5 H 1 R/ER 2 BB 10 K

FWIW, Zimmer and Appel have near-identical ERA of 2.72 and 2.73, respectively.

Gausman-6 IP 10 H 5/3 R/ER 0 BB 9 K - In his defense, many of the hits were of the infield variety and he had some pretty shoddy defense behind him.
Wacha-8 IP 4 H 0 R 2 BB 9 K (leads this group w/ a 2.22 ERA)

[astrosfan76]

An interesting wrinkle in the discussion:  Giolito was cleared to begin throwing today.  I don't know if his season is over, but probably will be by the time he'd be game-ready.  Now the question becomes, how much of his stock can he regain over the next month?  I'm doubting he regains his potential 1/1 stock, but how high will teams be willing to go on him?

[Reuben]

In a Draft Chat up at BA, John Manuel was asked if the Astros were likely to take Gausman; he explains that he prefers Gausman to the other college pitchers, then adds "I do believe, though, that the gap between Buxton and the rest of the class is significant enough that the Astros are going to wind up going Buxton unless one of those college RHPs separates himself from the pack in the next month."

[astrosfan76]

Zimmer to miss his start this weekend, due to a hamstring issue.

Zimmer, a 6-foot-4, 220-pounder, tweaked his right hamstring while fielding a bunt last week in his 10-strikeout, seven-inning outing against Brigham Young. Earlier in the week, Dons coaches indicated Zimmer was physically about 85 percent, and they expected him to start, but he hasn't progressed as they'd hoped. He's expected to return to action next weekend.

Doesn't sound serious, but the coaches are playing it safe.  I'm sure there are a few teams who are thankful for that.

[astrosfan76]

I've been reading pessimism that the club will actually draft Buxton 1/1, but Luhnow hasn't given up on the idea.  According to this video, Luhnow personally scouted him very recently.

http://www2.wsav.com/sports/2012/may/02/applings-buxton-looks-forward-mlb-draft-ar-3713094/

[hostros7]

Just from reading the reports and not having seen the guy play, I'm curious as to why Correa hasn't been getting more pub as a potential 1/1.  He has to be no less risky than Buxton. He plays SS and has all the tools, including power.  This organization doesn't really have anyone who fits that description.  Anyone have any insight on this?

[moriartp]

Correa has gotten some love from a few pundits, but there hasn't been anything connecting him to the Astros beyond Keith Law (I think) calling him a "dark horse to go 1-1" a while back. One guy over at Perfect Game gave him a ridiculously positive evaluation, though, saying he's way better than Buxton. There's a belief that Correa might outgrow SS, but most seem to think he'd play third very well and that he'll have more than enough bat to be valuable there. The consensus definitely still favors Buxton, though. There's also been a lot of talk that the Astros would prefer to take a college player, but I don't think anyone really has a firm idea of what's going to happen come June.

Also, shit. The draft is just over a month away. Time to start getting excited.

[astrosfan76]

Correa has gotten some love from a few pundits, but there hasn't been anything connecting him to the Astros beyond Keith Law (I think) calling him a "dark horse to go 1-1" a while back. One guy over at Perfect Game gave him a ridiculously positive evaluation, though, saying he's way better than Buxton. There's a belief that Correa might outgrow SS, but most seem to think he'd play third very well and that he'll have more than enough bat to be valuable there. The consensus definitely still favors Buxton, though. There's also been a lot of talk that the Astros would prefer to take a college player, but I don't think anyone really has a firm idea of what's going to happen come June.

Also, shit. The draft is just over a month away. Time to start getting excited.

To add to that, one guy from PG wrote that article, but all the guys there favor him over Buxton.  They don't see Buxton providing much power, he's hit maybe 1 HR this spring and they've never seen him hit 1 at any of their events.  

Edit:  Mayo, at MiLB.com is supposed to post an article tomorrow discussing candidates for 1/1 and he mentioned that McTaggart is supposed to have a story on the topic, as well.
Correa has been getting extra attention this week from his performance at the Excellence Tournament.  If Luhnow hadn't been eying him before then, it may be too late, since they'll want plenty of looks at whoever they pick.  But, if he's as good as the guys at Perfect Game think he is, I hope he gets plenty of consideration.

[juliogotay]

I've heard Arod comparisons to Correa from one source. Obviously, not the concensus though or he'd be a slam dunk first pick in this draft.

[astrosfan76]

I've heard Arod comparisons to Correa from one source. Obviously, not the concensus though or he'd be a slam dunk first pick in this draft.

Was that from Perfect Game?  I know they did, but it would be nice to see if someone else did.  Bleacher Report likened him to Tulo, which if he can reach that level would also make him a slam dunk first pick.  One thing they stated, which I didn't know, was that he has hit 90 HR since 2009, and that was written in early April.  I don't know if that includes tournaments, but wow.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1139654-mlb-draft-2012-carlos-correa-and-five-studs-you-need-to-know

[moriartp]

One thing they stated, which I didn't know, was that he has hit 90 HR since 2009, and that was written in early April.  I don't know if that includes tournaments, but wow.

Pretty sure that's referring to Tulo.

[astrosfan76]

Pretty sure that's referring to Tulo.

I really should take a couple extra seconds to actually read articles.

[jbm]

Not your fault.  It is the bleacher report and is poorly written and edited.  Who the fuck talks about what a joy Tulo is to watch when describing a prospect they have comped him to. 

[moriartp]

Who the fuck talks about what a joy Tulo is to watch when describing a prospect they have comped him to.

Someone who knows little-to-nothing about his subject. If you can't talk about Correa, just make an arbitrary comp and talk about that guy instead!

[astrosfan76]

Results from the usual suspects from last weekend (Zimmer was out nursing a hamstring injury):

Gausman: 7 2/3 IP 6 H 3 R/ER 0 BB 4 K
Appel: 7 IP 9 H 2 R/ER 0 BB 4 K
Wacha: 7 IP 8 H 2 R/ER 1 BB 9 K

PG had one of their guys at the LSU/Ole Miss series and had this in their writeup:

The professional brass didn’t go home disappointed. The Royals, Cubs and Padres have picks No. 5, 6 and 7, respectively in the upcoming MLB draft. And though there could always be a surprise come June, chances are good Gausman won’t be on the board by then, as there’s at least some talk the Houston Astros could take him as the No. 1 overall pick, though, Byron Buxton’s name has been talked more about in that spot recently.

 

FWIW

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=6962

[OregonStrosFan]

MLB/Mayo 5/7/12 Draft Notebook: LINK

[Travis]

Keith Law's latest ranks Buxton #1, Correa #2. Thinks Astros will take Buxton.

[astrosfan76]

Jim Callis is going to be on 610 at 11:30.

ETA:  Well, that was a waste.  Why bring on a guy whose job is to follow the draft and the minors and just talk about Josh Hamilton & the Astros' MLB club?

[astrosfan76]

BA's first mock is up.  Callis talks about the draft being weak at the top and with college position players, in general.

1. ASTROS: Houston is focusing on Buxton, Zunino and the three best college pitchers (Stanford's Mark Appel, Louisiana State's Kevin Gausman and San Francisco's Kyle Zimmer). Scouting director Bobby Heck has taken an up-the-middle position player with his top pick in each of his four drafts, and he and his staff are believed to favor Buxton, a five-tool center fielder. Rumors persist that the Astros' higher-ups—new owner Jim Crane and new general manager Jeff Luhnow—prefer an arm who could help soon and fit at the front of their rotation.
Projected Pick: MARK APPEL.

I'm sure that Crane could have a lot of say, but Luhnow is referred to as having taken the best player available when with the Cardinals (in St. Louis' pick).  Why would he change?  Plus, I thought Crane was supposed to stay out of the baseball decisions.  

Anyway, I'm feeling kinda apathetic at this point who we take.  If Correa is as good as PG believes, we'd be foolish to pass him up.  Out of the college pitchers, I like Gausman most.  But, part of that is feeling like he has the highest ceiling (with a decent chance of reaching it), part of that is being a homer.  PG has me down on Buxton.  Callis has had scouts tell him Buxton has 70 raw power, but he really hasn't shown it in games or showcases.  Sure, he's somewhat of a whale in a little pond, but you'd like to see some real evidence of a 70 grade sometime.  

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/mock-draft/2012/2613371.html

[jbm]

Man, I hope Callis is getting some bad info.  As the draft gets closer, and the college guys continue to middle about, I felt sure it would be one of the high school guys.  I'd much rather see them reach, and fail with a high ceiling guy than settle on Appel.  You can stumble upon what Appel will most likely be; I assume you generally don't stumble upon Buxton type players.

[OregonStrosFan]

I'm curious about how this draft may work with the restrictions on bonuses this season.  IIRC, Luhnow noted something about not really knowing how the draft will shake out because of these until right about draft time.  With no true 1-1, does he take a 1-12 type player that he can give 10 overall money to and use the 'savings under the cap' (so to speak) to try to entice better players late in the draft?

[astrosfan76]

I'm curious about how this draft may work with the restrictions on bonuses this season.  IIRC, Luhnow noted something about not really knowing how the draft will shake out because of these until right about draft time.  With no true 1-1, does he take a 1-12 type player that he can give 10 overall money to and use the 'savings under the cap' (so to speak) to try to entice better players late in the draft?

I asked a similar question in a PG (?) chat.  The club has $7.2M for the first pick and probably ~$1M or so for the supplemental.  Theoretically, they could take two guys for top 4 money (slot is $4.2M).  The dream scenario is they draft someone willing to sign for that and have a healthy Giolito fall to them at #41.  But, you can't have predraft deals and you're at the mercy of the advisor not getting every penny possible.

[astrosfan76]

Man, I hope Callis is getting some bad info.  As the draft gets closer, and the college guys continue to middle about, I felt sure it would be one of the high school guys.  I'd much rather see them reach, and fail with a high ceiling guy than settle on Appel.  You can stumble upon what Appel will most likely be; I assume you generally don't stumble upon Buxton type players.

He did say on 790 this afternoon that the club is playing it really close to their vests at this point.  So, he could be wrong.  Luhnow did watch Buxton in person, so he obviously hasn't been ruled out, either.

[hostros7]

I asked a similar question in a PG (?) chat.  The club has $7.2M for the first pick and probably ~$1M or so for the supplemental.  Theoretically, they could take two guys for top 4 money (slot is $4.2M).  The dream scenario is they draft someone willing to sign for that and have a healthy Giolito fall to them at #41.  But, you can't have predraft deals and you're at the mercy of the advisor not getting every penny possible.

Fwiw, I saw that klaw believes gioloto won't be available for the jays at 17.

[moriartp]

Law today:

-If you were the astros who would you take at #1? Who do you think they will take at #1?

I would take Buxton, and the strong industry consensus is for Buxton as well. But I know they've reached out to a number of players for that pick, including some you wouldn't ordinarily expect to be in consideration up there.


-Draft Question: You said Houston is looking at some guys we wouldn't expect at #1. Can you say who those players are?

On Tuesday, by which point I'll have more concrete info for my first projection of the first-round.

I guess we'll find out what that means later. FWIW, Law was way ahead of everyone else connecting the Astros to DeShields in '10, but I don't know how much that means at this point. All I know is the draft needs to hurry up and get here.

[roadrunner]

I asked a similar question in a PG (?) chat.  The club has $7.2M for the first pick and probably ~$1M or so for the supplemental.  Theoretically, they could take two guys for top 4 money (slot is $4.2M).  The dream scenario is they draft someone willing to sign for that and have a healthy Giolito fall to them at #41.  But, you can't have predraft deals and you're at the mercy of the advisor not getting every penny possible.

Klaw reported that there is some talk that clubs will use this strategy.  He said clubs may reach for guys in order to have more savings under the cap.  It sounded like it was more teams at the back end of the top 10, though, and not the Astros.

[Uncle Charlie]

I'm curious about how this draft may work with the restrictions on bonuses this season.  IIRC, Luhnow noted something about not really knowing how the draft will shake out because of these until right about draft time.  With no true 1-1, does he take a 1-12 type player that he can give 10 overall money to and use the 'savings under the cap' (so to speak) to try to entice better players late in the draft?

If this truely is a terrible draft as the pundits are saying...you have to wonder if they have considered the 2013 draft and if they wouldn't mind being stauch on negotiations knowing they can get a 1-2 pick next year if they fail to sign?

[astrosfan76]

Klaw reported that there is some talk that clubs will use this strategy.  He said clubs may reach for guys in order to have more savings under the cap.  It sounded like it was more teams at the back end of the top 10, though, and not the Astros.

It would depend on how much Giolito is asking, also.  If it's going to take $4M+ to keep him from UCLA, you're limiting the number of clubs who have a high enough pick and enough extra picks to make that work without killing the rest of their draft.  If a club at the back of the top 10 has ~$2.5M for their pick, they'd have to save $1.5M over the next 9 rounds, which would be tough even if they have a supplemental pick worth $1M+, since the value of the picks dwindle.  You can't just fill the rest of your draft with senior scrubs.  There probably are teams who could make it work, but not many.

One scenario that I saw mentioned yesterday was for a team like the Yankees, who always pick at the back of the draft, to buck the system and offer him whatever it would take, even if it cost them their next two 1st-rounders.  It would cost a lot pick-wise, but they'd be getting the most-talented player in the draft. 

I don't expect us to draft him, but it will take special circumstances for whoever does.

[astrosfan76]

If this truely is a terrible draft as the pundits are saying...you have to wonder if they have considered the 2013 draft and if they wouldn't mind being stauch on negotiations knowing they can get a 1-2 pick next year if they fail to sign?

I'm sure they'll try to spend as little as possible with each pick, but I don't mean that in a bad way.  I don't expect them to pick the guy they have pegged as 7th-best on their list because he'll sign for less.  But, when they make their selection, I imagine they'll try to sign him for as little as possible and, on the other end, the agent will try to get as much as possible.  That's just the way negotiations work.  In the end, though, the club still want to sign the player because he will automatically be the top prospect in the system and they need the talent moving through. 

[jbm]

It will be interesting how teams approach it, but I'd be surprised if it didn't play out as it is drawn up.  With both penalties, the tax and the loss of picks, it will be hard to game in a major way.  I can see a team using a mid round pick on someone they figure they could entice with small savings gathered from skimming off other picks, but not a wholesale disregard of the rules.  It is just too punishing.  It will also be interesting watching the agents come to grips with the system.  

[Reuben]

In the end, though, the club still want to sign the player because he will automatically be the top prospect in the system and they need the talent moving through. 

I'm not completely sure this is true. I've seen pundits say that Springer would've been in the mix for #1/1 in this class, and Singleton is now rather highly regarded as well.

[OregonStrosFan]

...but not a wholesale disregard of the rules.  It is just too punishing....

This.  The penalties are severe. 

And while 'pre-draft deals' may not be allowed, I've little doubt that there are 'handshake agreements' out there.  You tell a kid that may be a #12 overall that you'll take him #1 overall if he'd agree to #8-#10 money, I would certainly imagine he and his agent would consider it strongly (as #10 money is obviously better, and there is a 'prestige factor' for being 1-1), and while there may be some consideration that the agent and player could renig/hold out, the fact is that the agent still has to work in the business -and- the kid still has to play in the system.  Both significant reasons IMO to keep all involved 'honest'.

It certainly wouldn't surprise me to see Luhnow try to get a $4M player at 1-1 and a $3.5M type player at 1S-41... but... what do I know...

[astrosfan76]

I'm not completely sure this is true. I've seen pundits say that Springer would've been in the mix for #1/1 in this class, and Singleton is now rather highly regarded as well.

I've seen that Appel would have probably been #8 last year, many like Buxton more than (or at least comparable to) Starling, who went #5.  I don't know if Gausman/Zimmer would fit in the same spot as Appel (I guess depends on who you ask), but those guys would likely go before Springer.  Either way, the point remains, you don't want to not sign this guy.  You would be setting the organization back.

[moriartp]

Either way, the point remains, you don't want to not sign this guy.  You would be setting the organization back.

Not to mention the complete PR disaster they'd create. The new regime has already shown itself to be far too image-conscious to let something like that happen.

[astrosfan76]

This.  The penalties are severe. 

And while 'pre-draft deals' may not be allowed, I've little doubt that there are 'handshake agreements' out there.  You tell a kid that may be a #12 overall that you'll take him #1 overall if he'd agree to #8-#10 money, I would certainly imagine he and his agent would consider it strongly (as #10 money is obviously better, and there is a 'prestige factor' for being 1-1), and while there may be some consideration that the agent and player could renig/hold out, the fact is that the agent still has to work in the business -and- the kid still has to play in the system.  Both significant reasons IMO to keep all involved 'honest'.

It certainly wouldn't surprise me to see Luhnow try to get a $4M player at 1-1 and a $3.5M type player at 1S-41... but... what do I know...

I wouldn't want to see a club at the back do that, either, but there is logic to the argument.  If you are sure that you'll be picking at the bottom of the heap over the next 2 seasons and you have a chance to pick up the draft's best player, a guy with ace stuff, you have to give thought to it.  Most of the guys you'll run into in that range are going to be raw or have #3 ceilings.  If penalties have never been a determent before (i.e. luxury tax), would you be willing to give up two of those lower-ceiling/higher-risk players to get a stud, knowing that you'll still have ~39 more picks each season?  

[Reuben]

Either way, the point remains, you don't want to not sign this guy.  You would be setting the organization back.

Very true. It's odd, I don't think I've seen any questions raised about Buxton's signability, but of course that could be a factor too. Logic says that there's no financial incentive for him to forgo signing for college if he's already the 1st overall pick this year, but with this year being the litmus test for the new rules, who can say for sure what'll happen.

[astrosfan76]

Very true. It's odd, I don't think I've seen any questions raised about Buxton's signability, but of course that could be a factor too. Logic says that there's no financial incentive for him to forgo signing for college if he's already the 1st overall pick this year, but with this year being the litmus test for the new rules, who can say for sure what'll happen.

I haven't either, though I don't know if I've seen him slipping out of the Top 5 (maybe PG), rarely the Top 2.  With a lot of his value being tied into projection, he'd really have to want to go to college to skip what he'll be offered a month from now.  I don't see the slot values changing a whole lot in the next 3 years; I'm sure they'll go up, but not a huge amount. 

[hostros7]

The point is that you can't go higher than 1/1.  I'm all for education, but no one should pass that up and no one ever has.  It's truly not a risk (assuming the org is fair on negotiationswhich it will be).

[Fynn]

I was curious which of the top prospects have Boras as his agent.  That could rule someone out quickly-going way over slot to get a guy could ruin your entire draft strategy.

[OregonStrosFan]

I was curious which of the top prospects have Boras as his agent.  That could rule someone out quickly-going way over slot to get a guy could ruin your entire draft strategy.

I don't recall hearing his name associated with anyone this year yet (like it was with, e.g., Josh Bell last year).  [And not giving you crap, just a misc. note that they aren't "agents" until the player is signed (general rule), they are "advisers" (stupid arcane and unrealistic NCAA BS...).

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

Moreover, Crane doesn't have baggage with Boras like McLane did.  I'm not saying that it won't still be an issue, but Crane certainly won't hold Beltran against some draft pick.

[Fynn]

Moreover, Crane doesn't have baggage with Boras like McLane did.  I'm not saying that it won't still be an issue, but Crane certainly won't hold Beltran against some draft pick.

Wasn't Boras the "advisor" to Jacoby Jones?  Of course no one knows what our final offer was for Jones, but McLane did have post-Beltran dealings with Boras-none successfully however.

[Fynn]

I don't recall hearing his name associated with anyone this year yet (like it was with, e.g., Josh Bell last year).  [And not giving you crap, just a misc. note that they aren't "agents" until the player is signed (general rule), they are "advisers" (stupid arcane and unrealistic NCAA BS...).

No crap noted here.  Thanks for your work on the board.

[OregonStrosFan]

Wasn't Boras the "advisor" to Jacoby Jones?  Of course no one knows what our final offer was for Jones, but McLane did have post-Beltran dealings with Boras-none successfully however.

Yes, and seems there was a $2M'ish rumored offer to him (I could be way off on that, but that number sticks out), but my impression was that Bubba Jones was running that sideshow more than Boras was...

[moriartp]

Yes, and seems there was a $2M'ish rumored offer to him (I could be way off on that, but that number sticks out), but my impression was that Bubba Jones was running that sideshow more than Boras was...

I remember Heck saying they made a "substantial" offer, but there's really no telling what that means. $1M was the number I saw mentioned on the webs (can't remember if there was a solid source).

[astrosfan76]

I remember Heck saying they made a "substantial" offer, but there's really no telling what that means. $1M was the number I saw mentioned on the webs (can't remember if there was a solid source).

I heard it mentioned on an LSU broadcast one day. I want to say that it was well above $1M, possibly $2M.

[AppyAstros]

Wasn't Boras the "advisor" to Jacoby Jones?  Of course no one knows what our final offer was for Jones, but McLane did have post-Beltran dealings with Boras-none successfully however.

I think you have your jones' mixed up.  That was Chad Jones who the Astros drafted and decided to go to LSU as a DB and play baseball as well. 

[pots]

I think you have your jones' mixed up.  That was Chad Jones who the Astros drafted and decided to go to LSU as a DB and play baseball as well. 

I remember it being Jacoby, every serach you had to weed through wide receiver articles

[astrosfan76]

If you're looking at stat lines, the top 3 pitchers aren't making things easy:

Appel:  8 IP 6 H 2 R 1 BB 10 K (has given up 2 or fewer runs in each of his last 6 starts)
Zimmer:  7 IP 6H 1 R 2 BB 11 K (3 consecutive starts w/ 10+ Ks)
Gausman:  9 IP 5 H 1 R 1 BB 11 K (5th time this season w/ 10+ Ks)

I don't know how their stuff was, but the results surely left an impression on whatever brass was in attendance.

[Reuben]

Wasn't Boras the "advisor" to Jacoby Jones?  Of course no one knows what our final offer was for Jones, but McLane did have post-Beltran dealings with Boras-none successfully however.

FWIW, Ivan Rodriguez was a Boras post-Beltran signing, can't think of any others though.

[astrosfan76]

FWIW, Ivan Rodriguez was a Boras post-Beltran signing, can't think of any others though.

From this list, we've had Villone, Chen, Gaston, and SBB (don't remember if he signed any contracts with him as an agent, though).

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/10/scott-boras-cli.html

[Navin R Johnson]

FWIW, Ivan Rodriguez was a Boras post-Beltran signing, can't think of any others though.

Not the same I know, but was Bourn with Boras when they traded for him?

[Fynn]

Not the same I know, but was Bourn with Boras when they traded for him?

That would be an affirmative.

[moriartp]

Not the same I know, but was Bourn with Boras when they traded for him?

Nope, he switched when he was with the Astros.

[Fynn]

Nope, he switched when he was with the Astros.

My bad-you are right.

[OregonStrosFan]

I think you have your jones' mixed up.  That was Chad Jones who the Astros drafted and decided to go to LSU as a DB and play baseball as well.

JaCoby.  Astros County LINK(s). 

Misc. article on how he is currently doing at LSU.  LINK

I remember Heck saying they made a "substantial" offer, but there's really no telling what that means. $1M was the number I saw mentioned on the webs (can't remember if there was a solid source).

Rumored at $2M. LINK.  See also earlier rumored $1.5M (via Randy Rosetta, who covers LSU baseball for the Baton Rouge Advocate). LINK

Geez, and y'all doubted me...

[OregonStrosFan]

Astros County post: LINK  [And though I'm cut and pasting ACs full text, you really should keep the site bookmarked for Astros info (inc. MiLB and draft) - it is a SUPERB resource].

In Keith Law's first (ESPN Insider-only) Mock Draft (based, as he puts it, "on conversations with sources throughout the industry") he has the Astros taking Mark Appel with the 1-1 pick next month. Law acknowledges that they may sign a player willing to cut a cheaper deal in order to save money for later picks.

[OregonStrosFan]

More from Law's First Mock draft: LINK

...general feeling is that [Houston will] take the college arm over the higher-upside, higher-risk outfielder, Byron Buxton … or that they'll take the best player who'll cut a deal below the $7.2 million slot figure and transfer the money to later picks.

Law's top 5 shake out as follows: Appel; Buxton; Giolito; Gausman; Zunino

[Reuben]

One of the top guys they pass up has a good chance to be playing against them for years on the Mariners (pick #3).

I'm curious about this supposed strategy of cutting a deal for the #1 pick and re-allocating money to other picks. Who are the signability guys who might fall all the way to #41 overall? I just haven't read about many top-shelf talents who'd be worth an extra $2-4mil possibly falling. Consensus on Giolito seems to be he'll still go in the first round.

[Reuben]

More from Law's First Mock draft: LINK

...general feeling is that [Houston will] take the college arm over the higher-upside, higher-risk outfielder, Byron Buxton … or that they'll take the best player who'll cut a deal below the $7.2 million slot figure and transfer the money to later picks.

Law's top 5 shake out as follows: Appel; Buxton; Giolito; Gausman; Zunino

OSF, after following your Jon Meyer link, I found this fairly damning scouting report on Appel from John Klima. Hmmm. The guy just seems less and less appealing the more I hear about him- apparently Luhnow himself was at his start a couple weeks ago, though.

[OregonStrosFan]

OSF, after following your Jon Meyer link, I found this fairly damning scouting report on Appel from John Klima. Hmmm. The guy just seems less and less appealing the more I hear about him- apparently Luhnow himself was at his start a couple weeks ago, though.

Ya know, I've never quite decided what I think about Klima...  Has some really good stuff sometimes, but there are the occasional head-scratchers from him as well...  As for Appel, he's not a 1-1 guy on my list, then again I am almost always wrong (or always wrong, I forget) as to who the Astros might actually take.  I'd love to see a high-upside Giolito type pick, which given my history will make him a certainty not to go there...

[juliogotay]

Ya know, I've never quite decided what I think about Klima...  Has some really good stuff sometimes, but there are the occasional head-scratchers from him as well...  As for Appel, he's not a 1-1 guy on my list, then again I am almost always wrong (or always wrong, I forget) as to who the Astros might actually take.  I'd love to see a high-upside Giolito type pick, which given my history will make him a certainty not to go there...

I haven't seen any of these guys and wouln't know what to look for if I did. But I read alot and I'm hoping for Giolito, Zimmer or Gausman if a pitcher. I'm really intriqued by Correa though.

[OregonStrosFan]

I haven't seen any of these guys and wouln't know what to look for if I did. But I read alot and I'm hoping for Giolito, Zimmer or Gausman if a pitcher. I'm really intriqued by Correa though.

9-3-5-6 in BAs current 2012 DRAFT: TOP 100 PROSPECTS list.

[jbm]

Is there a conceivable reason for them to send out false leads?  I can't really think of one when you have the first pick.

I just don't get Appel. I thought he was only mid first round level last year, but heard that he might figure it out and start to dominate.  He hasn't.  I wonder if he would have even gone in the top ten last year.  I question whether he would have been picked before Jungmann, and no one would ever consider him 1-1 material. Seems like a complete waste of the top pick.

[astrosfan76]

PG will have a mock up Friday, but had this earlier:

The Astros' short list has reportedly been narrowed to the 3 big college pitchers (Appel, Gausman, and Zimmer) and the top 2 prep positional prospects (Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton). Mike Zunino could also be in the mix, as the new Astros ownership strongly prefers, and may have even directed the scouting department, to select a college player.

http://www.perfectgame.org/blogs/View.aspx?blog=230

[MusicMan]

#1 arms don't grow on trees.  I'd rather see us miss going for one of those than going for yet another catcher.

[jbm]

Meddling from the owner.  What a dumbass. Stay the fuck out of baseball decisions.

[jbm]

#1 arms don't grow on trees.  I'd rather see us miss going for one of those than going for yet another catcher.

I haven't heard anyone consider Appel a #1. Maybe there is someone throwing out that info, but I assumed he was generally felt closer to a 3 than a 1.

[OregonStrosFan]

Is there a conceivable reason for them to send out false leads?  I can't really think of one when you have the first pick.

Something to do with lowering the demand/asking price of someone you're looking to cut a deal with at 1-1 to save money to spend later in the draft?  That'd be my only guess...

[chuck]

Meddling from the owner.  What a dumbass. Stay the fuck out of baseball decisions.

Meet the new boss...

[Navin R Johnson]

Meddling from the owner.  What a dumbass. Stay the fuck out of baseball decisions.

Where is this coming from?

[jbm]

AF76 quoted a blurb from Perfect Game where it was speculated Crane was directing them to take either a college player or specifically Zunino.  I couldn't really tell, but either way, that is no way to run a professional franchise.

[Ron Brand]

AF76 quoted a blurb from Perfect Game where it was speculated Crane was directing them to take either a college player or specifically Zunino.  I couldn't really tell, but either way, that is no way to run a professional franchise.

He's rich. He knows more than you do.

[Navin R Johnson]

AF76 quoted a blurb from Perfect Game where it was speculated Crane was directing them to take either a college player or specifically Zunino.  I couldn't really tell, but either way, that is no way to run a professional franchise.

The quote simply said that ownership prefers college players (is that even true? I have never heard that) and then says because of that, they MIGHT be directing the GM to pick a college player.  Sounds like the writer is gonna need a towel after speculating all over himself.

[AppyAstros]

Luhnow has a trend of picking college picks with 1st round picks.  Wong (2011), Cox (2010), Miller (2009 - HS), Wallace (2008), Kozma (2007 - HS), Ottavino (2006). 

So that is four out of the last six.  However, his highest pick was at #13 - Wallace.  He has no history at 1-1.

[astrosfan76]

The quote simply said that ownership prefers college players (is that even true? I have never heard that) and then says because of that, they MIGHT be directing the GM to pick a college player.  Sounds like the writer is gonna need a towel after speculating all over himself.

They're not the only ones who have mentioned a preference by upper management for a college player, though.  Callis has reported the same thing, as well.  If you're arguing whether they've "directed" the scouting department to select a college player, well, we don't know for sure.  But, there is a vibe around the league that Crane and/or Luhnow prefer a college guy.

[jbm]

Luhnow has a trend of picking college picks with 1st round picks.  Wong (2011), Cox (2010), Miller (2009 - HS), Wallace (2008), Kozma (2007 - HS), Ottavino (2006). 

So that is four out of the last six.  However, his highest pick was at #13 - Wallace.  He has no history at 1-1.

I wonder if this data set has led to some rethinking.

btw.  If Luhnow wants to pick one of the college guys because he thinks they are the best player available, then fine, but if he is doing this because the owner prefers that, then the future might be pretty dim.

[MusicMan]

I haven't heard anyone consider Appel a #1. Maybe there is someone throwing out that info, but I assumed he was generally felt closer to a 3 than a 1.

Oh, I don't want Appel - I'm in the camp of Zimmer or Gausman.

[Navin R Johnson]

I wonder if this data set has led to some rethinking.

btw.  If Luhnow wants to pick one of the college guys because he thinks they are the best player available, then fine, but if he is doing this because the owner prefers that, then the future might be pretty dim.

Exactly.  Big difference in Lunhow wanting a College guy and a meddling wannabe fantacrap owner FORCING his scouting department to select a college player.

[VirtualBob]

I haven't heard anyone consider Appel a #1. Maybe there is someone throwing out that info, ...

John Klima ...

This was [Appel's] best look in my opinion and probably the one that got him signed, sealed, and delivered as the 1/1 to the Astros with Luhnow sitting there for all seven innings.

[OregonStrosFan]

John Klima ...

Thanks for the link.  I liked Klima's approach to discussing his opinions in that article. 

[OregonStrosFan]

Budgeted amounts for the 2012 draft: BA LINK

Teams can spread the money among their picks in the top 10 rounds in different ways so long as they stay under the total budget. For example, the Astros could sign their No. 1 pick for $5.2 million and spread the extra $2 million among other players. However, if a team fails to sign a player, it cannot apply the budgeted amount for that pick to other players and loses that amount from its overall budget.

Astros budgeted amounts per pick (as noted in the BA link):

1- $7,200,000
41- $1,258,700
61 - $844,100
96- $495,200
129- $360,200
159- $269,700
189- $201,900
219- $151,400
249- $140,400
279- $131,100
309- $125,000

*Bonuses for players signed after the first 10 rounds do not count against the overall budget, unless they exceed $100,000.

[OregonStrosFan]

...I'd love to see a high-upside Giolito type pick, which given my history will make him a certainty not to go there...

Callis thinks that'd be idiotic... (from BAs Jim Callis Chat: May 16: LINK)

Taylor (Houston): Jim - call me crazy, but what would you think about popping Giolito 1-1, and if you don't sign him, take your two very high picks next year in what is hopefully a better draft class (assuming you still get compensation for not signing your first rounder - I don't know if that rule changed). He's the best prospect in the draft, and would probably be the consensus #1 guy had it not been for the injury.

Jim Callis: I don't think a healthy Giolito is clearly the best prospect in the draft. He's in the top group, I'll give you that. But I think taking him No. 1 overall would be crazy. You already have health questions about him, and the track record of guys who throw 100 mph in high school having long, healthy careers is poor. This isn't a great draft, but I'd be thrilled to take Byron Buxton with the No. 1 overall pick. I wouldn't gamble that high on Giolito. He fits best with a team that has extra picks and not as many holes as the Astros.

Also from the chat, on Appel, Jimmer, and Gausman:

Andrew (Toronto): Can you help me understand what seperates Appel from Gausman and Zimmer? I guess I'd just expect more swing & miss from a guy pegged at the top of the board.

Jim Callis: It's all eye of the beholder. I'd take Zimmer over Appel, go back and forth on Appel vs. Gausman. You're not the only one—a lot of scouts would like to see more dominance from Appel.

And on 'draft savings':

colin (toronto): Hi Jim...given the combination of a weak draft along with the higher bonus slot designated by MLB, do you see a lot of underslot deals in the 1st round and Supp 1st. It seems to me there are not a lot of guys that will be worth the value of the slots they will be draft in.

Jim Callis: Well, the pick values were negotiated by MLB with the MLBPA, and they represent a much more accurate picture of market value than the old slots, which the MLB created on its own. The values for the guys at the top of the draft seem high for the talent on hand, but I think you'll see the majority of first-rounders get full pick value. That said, if you're looking to get a guy who wants more than pick value, most teams will take a discount guy early and the expensive guy second, rather than the other way around.

[jbm]

RE Klima:  He's not calling Appel a #1, just 1-1 in the draft.  Especially damning in that report is his observation that getting ahead in counts is holding him back right now, coupled with his belief that Appel won't develop much better control over time.

[juliogotay]

Klima on Giolito. http://www.bbprospectreport.com/2012/03/16/lucas-giolito-1#more-15524

[austro]

Klima on Giolito. http://www.bbprospectreport.com/2012/03/16/lucas-giolito-1#more-15524

Something looks odd to me about Giolito's motion, but I don't know what it is. I think it's because he looks like he's leaning back as he plants.

[OregonStrosFan]

Klima on Giolito. http://www.bbprospectreport.com/2012/03/16/lucas-giolito-1#more-15524

There was a link to his updated scouting report on the kid at the bottom of that article as well (LINK). A couple of tidbits:

Let me now reach into history. The best 17-year old arms I have ever seen are Lucas Giolito and Felix Hernandez. I saw Hernandez when he was 17 in the Northwest League throwing 98-100 for six innings.

And from an earlier Klima scouting report (LINK):

Ask me the best three right-handed curveballs I’ve seen since I started the site: 2010 was Covey. 2011 was Bauer. 2012 should be Giolito, if he ever throws it more than once an inning.

[OregonStrosFan]

Astros will hold 3 pre-draft workouts this year: LINK 

The first workout will take place Sunday at the MLB Urban Youth Academy in Los Angeles, as the Astros ramp up preparations for selecting at No. 1 overall.  The second workout will be held May 27 in Atlanta, and the final workout is scheduled for May 30 at Minute Maid Park. The workouts are only for players who receive invitations from Astros scouts. In the past few years, the club had held just one pre-Draft workout in Houston.

[astrosfan76]

Appel and Gausman pitching like they want it these days. They both threw complete games, Gausman against a tough South Carolina team, Appel against well, Utah. Appel had the better stat line, throwing a shutout on 4 hits with 1 walk and 13 Ks. Gausman limited the Gamecocks to 2 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks with 6 Ks. Gausman didn't strike out as many batters, but few balls left the infield, with several popups. All 5 of the hits surrendered were singles. Zimmer's team has the week off.

[juliogotay]

Regarding Appel, I read frequently " he doesn't miss bats" yet most outings he's striking out over one per inning.

[astrosfan76]

Regarding Appel, I read frequently " he doesn't miss bats" yet most outings he's striking out over one per inning.

He's been hit or miss this season.  Some games, he just dominates, like Friday, and strikes out 12-14 batters.  Other games, he'll only manage a few, leading to a K/9 rate that's "only" about 9 1/2.  I don't know what has been inconsistent from game to game, whether it's command of his fastball, command/sharpness of his secondary pitches, or what, but there's something.  On a side note, one of McTaggart's notebooks from the weekend mentioned Luhnow watching one of the guys they're looking at on Friday.  It didn't say who it was, but if I had to guess, Appel scored some major points in front of his future boss with that performance.

[jbm]

You never know.  Goldstein was commenting on a previous "good" outing where Appel had a bunch of Ks, but thought he just looked pretty good, but not close to "wow" good.  This is the first pick in the draft; he should "wow" people. 

[Jacksonian]

Appel and Gausman pitching like they want it these days. They both threw complete games, Gausman against a tough South Carolina team, Appel against well, Utah. Appel had the better stat line, throwing a shutout on 4 hits with 1 walk and 13 Ks. Gausman limited the Gamecocks to 2 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks with 6 Ks. Gausman didn't strike out as many batters, but few balls left the infield, with several popups. All 5 of the hits surrendered were singles. Zimmer's team has the week off.

Trouble is that the quality of the opponent matters in the stat line.

[jbm]

Yes, Mooneyham (who is reportedly a good pitcher in his own right) basically duplicated Appel's line the next night against the Utes.  I assume, but don't know, that South Carolina has a much tougher lineup.  Given the history of the program, I suppose it could be tons better.  

Anyone actually watch Gausman?  I keep forgeting to see if any of those games are on the tube.  I'd love to see him pitch.  

[astrosfan76]

You never know.  Goldstein was commenting on a previous "good" outing where Appel had a bunch of Ks, but thought he just looked pretty good, but not close to "wow" good.  This is the first pick in the draft; he should "wow" people. 

And that could be the case; Luhnow said in the same article that they're not close to having a final decision.  I'm assuming that Luhnow was at the Stanford game since Gausman's game was originally slated for Thursday and got bumped to the morning portion of a double-header due to weather.  If so, I don't think that's the first trip he's made to watch Appel. 

I've watched parts of a couple of Gausman's starts on television.  They show them on CST in Louisiana, don't know about other parts.  But, with regional tournaments, and eventually the CWS, coming up, there's a good chance he'll be on ESPN at some point.  I haven't watched Appel, so I can't really compare the two, but I do like Gausman (wouldn't complain if he went 1/1).  He has the fastball (two, actually), but also has three other pitches that he should be able to use well at the next level.  His command isn't always great, but he still overwhelms hitters most nights and has gotten better this season.  The game against South Carolina was huge.  I don't know how they are offensively, but the Gamecocks were ranked #2 entering the series. 

[juliogotay]

I would love to see the Astros get a potential top-of-the-rotation starter with this pick. I'm not sure that there is an concensus one out there. If there is a positional player that is a potential multi-time All-Star type I'd rather see that guy picked than a middle-of-the-order type that the organzation has plenty of.  I keep coming back to the SS.

[Travis]

I would love to see the Astros get a potential top-of-the-rotation starter with this pick. I'm not sure that there is an concensus one out there. If there is a positional player that is a potential multi-time All-Star type I'd rather see that guy picked than a middle-of-the-order type that the organzation has plenty of.  I keep coming back to the SS.

It just sounds like there isn't a SS that deserves to be picked #1. Most seem to think Correa will have to move to 3B and Marrero is a mid to late 1st rounder.

[Fynn]

I would love to see the Astros get a potential top-of-the-rotation starter with this pick. I'm not sure that there is an concensus one out there. If there is a positional player that is a potential multi-time All-Star type I'd rather see that guy picked than a middle-of-the-order type that the organzation has plenty of.  I keep coming back to the SS.

Or a top quality catcher from Florida.

[Reuben]

Or a top quality catcher from Florida.

I've heard Jason Varitek comps for Zunino, which is definitely a type of player you'd be glad to have... I'm just not sure if that's the best you can do with a 1-1 pick.

[Fynn]

Re: 2012 draft