2011 Draft

[At Ease]

BA's "Experts Draft 2.0" (LINK)

BA's caveat: This isn't a projection of how the first round will play out, but rather who editor John Manuel, executive editor Jim Callis and assistant editors Conor Glassey and Nathan Rode would prefer for picks 1-33. We changed the order up from our original experts draft, and the four experts alternated choices throughout the first round while taking into account each club's needs and financial situation.

And for the Good Guys:

11. ASTROS (John): Jim just ruined my fantasy of getting Jungmann at 11. It's disappointing, but I'll find a way to move on by taking Connecticut righthander Matt Barnes. He's the kind of high-upside player Bobby Heck and his staff have focused on in recent years, and has dominated from start to finish in 2011. I could also see taking Sonny Gray, Jed Bradley or South Carolina prep righty Taylor Guerrieri here, but to me Barnes has upside and will get to the majors quickly. With a team as needy as the one in Houston, that should be a consideration when other factors are fairly equal.

Note: BA had Lindor at 8 (Indians), Archie Bradley at 9 (Cubs), and Jungmann at 10 (Padres).

Barnes didn't do much to help his stock tonight, getting pounded by a so-so Coastal Carolina team to the tune of 7 ER on 9 H in 4.1 IP.

[astrosfan76]

Goldstein's selection, with notes from calls/texts:

11. Houston Astros: Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt. The Astros want a pitcher, and indications are that they believe Gray can stick as a starter.

    Arms: Archie Bradley, ton of college guys
    Gray
    Jungman
    Barnes
    Jed Bradley

He had Archie Bradley going #8 to the Indians and Guerrerri at #9 to the Cubs.  I really want Bradley, but if he's gone, I really hope it's before #9. 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=14139

[OregonStrosFan]

Goldstein's selection, with notes from calls/texts:

He had Archie Bradley going #8 to the Indians and Guerrerri at #9 to the Cubs.  I really want Bradley, but if he's gone, I really hope it's before #9. 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=14139

That win in G162 last season was the difference between the 9th and 11th draft pick this season. Figured then that it might come back and bite us in the ass...  But agreed, do not want to see A Bradley as a FTC, and don't really think he'll make it to #11.

[Navin R Johnson]

@FrankiePiliere Frankie Piliere
Sources telling me the Astros are trying to cut a pre-draft deal with Stanford lefty, Chris Reed at #11. #mlbdraft

[Navin R Johnson]

FrankiePiliere Frankie Piliere
This is a big one, our first real off the board pick potentially. But Houston is working hard to get something done with Reed

[OregonStrosFan]

From Scout.com's Piliere (via Twitter, LINK 1, LINK 2):

Sources telling me the Astros are trying to cut a pre-draft deal with Stanford lefty, Chris Reed at #11. #mlbdraft

This is a big one, our first real off the board pick potentially. But Houston is working hard to get something done with Reed

I don't doubt Frankie has a decent source on this, but it wouldn't be surprising at all to see someone taking a bit of 'draft license' with him here.  He was the one that had a source telling him Grandel to KC at #5 last year (went to CIN at 12).

[Navin R Johnson]

FYI

@FrankiePiliere Cape Cod
National Baseball Analyst, Scout.com/FOXSports; Former Scout with the Texas Rangers. For radio spots/interviews contact me at fpiliere@scout.com

[OregonStrosFan]

@FrankiePiliere Frankie Piliere
Sources telling me the Astros are trying to cut a pre-draft deal with Stanford lefty, Chris Reed at #11. #mlbdraft

Cabrera'd again... ugh!

[OregonStrosFan]

FYI

@FrankiePiliere Cape Cod
National Baseball Analyst, Scout.com/FOXSports; Former Scout with the Texas Rangers. For radio spots/interviews contact me at fpiliere@scout.com

He was with AOL Fanhouse before it closed up shop. Legit prospect guy (as prospect guys come), but I'm not taking this one to the bank by any means (not to belittle Frankie or his source).

[OregonStrosFan]

BA on Reed in 09/10: Atlantic Collegiate League Top 10 Prospects (Subscription)

1. Chris Reed, lhp, Torrington (Jr., Stanford)

Reed pitched sparingly as a freshman in 2009 and struggled with his control as a sophomore at Stanford, going 2-0, 6.10 with 15 walks and 14 strikeouts in 21 innings of relief this spring. But he turned a corner this summer in the ACBL, going 2-2, 1.23 with 23 strikeouts and 13 walks in 22 innings, mostly in relief. Reed has a projectable pitcher's frame at 6-foot-4, 205 pounds. This summer he showed good command of a 90-92 mph fastball and a sharp slider in the low 80s. He has significant upside but must continue to refine his feel for pitching and command.

Profiles as a closer. I'd be VERY surprised if this was Heck-Wade's pick at #11.

[astrosfan76]

Reed went 6-2 this season in 27 games (1 start). He had an ERA of 2.61 in 48 1/3 innings, allowing 35 hits and 14 walks and striking out 48. 

Stats don't tell the whole story, but unless they see a whole lot of potential in him as a starter, this doesn't make sense, not at #11, not when they seem willing to spend.

[OregonStrosFan]

MLB.com scouting report on Chris Reed: LINK

[moriartp]

ESPN:

The genius of college coaches: Chris Reed, a 6-foot-4 left-hander who sits 92-94 as a reliever with two off-speed pitches that will at least flash above-average, has made exactly one start this year for Stanford, instead working out of the pen where he's been successful but wasted.

Reed adds a sharp, short slider in the 82-84 mph range to that fastball and will show a very hard-fading changeup in the upper 70s, throwing strikes with all three pitches but not yet showing the fastball command he'll need to start in the big leagues. He comes from a slot just under three-quarters and repeats his delivery well enough to start, although he could stay upright longer and get more downhill plane on the fastball.
Many scouts like Reed as a potential starter, and we know he can pitch in the bullpen if that doesn't work out, but I like his chances to end up a No. 2 or 3 starter once he's stretched out.

[Ebby Calvin]

So if he's drafted Monday, could he close for the Astros, say, Tuesday?
Hypothetically speaking of course....

[moriartp]

Keith Law disagrees: Yes. Not in their mix at 11, I'm told. RT @mwash1983 @keithlaw Is Reed to Houston at 11 a reach?

Might not be related, but he said this a few minutes later: Asked a FO guy where a certain crazy rumor started. Answer: "somewhere on the Internet"

[hostros7]

This guy sounds interesting...just not at 11, which probably means he'll be drafted at 11.

[astrosfan76]

Latest on Chris Reed "saga":

For what it's worth, the Astros are denying the Chris Reed report.  Sources can be wrong.  They reached out to me directly to shoot it down.

and

So to complete the update, Houston is denying the Chris Reed report.  Still keeping an eye on it but important they are denying it.

http://twitter.com/#!/FrankiePiliere

And a collective sigh is issued

[jbm]

Why would there need to be a deal prior to the draft?  Is it because he would presumably sign well below slot?  Does that happen?

[moriartp]

Why would there need to be a deal prior to the draft?  Is it because he would presumably sign well below slot?  Does that happen?

Yup. Tony Sanchez is a recent example.

[OregonStrosFan]

Per Stephen Goff's Twitter feed.

I'm trying to confirm how valid the FOX Sports report is regarding Stanford lefty Chris Reed and the Astros possibly taking him at No. 11.

I just talked to someone close to Chris Reed and they didn't seem to know anything about it. I'd say the board is wide open for the Astros.

@native_astro I don't see the Astros reaching for a Top 60 pick at No. 11. It would go against, "we can't pass up the most talented player."