Lidge a Phillie

[Andyzipp]

It's not just stolen bases either...

It's the first to third.

It's the possible triple instead of a stand-up double.

It's the hurried infield throw on ground balls.

Speed kills...

It's rushing a pitch to the plate for Pence, Berkman and Lee...

[Russ99]

Just shot in the dark speculation:

What if Troy Patton (or one of our other starting prospects) gets moved to closer? If you guys remember, both Wagner and Elarton started out as starters... Lidge too before he got hurt in the minors.

Still, I expect Wade to make a move on Cordero or Linebrink to be the Astros closer for '08

[Andyzipp]

Just shot in the dark speculation:

What if Troy Patton (or one of our other starting prospects) gets moved to closer? If you guys remember, both Wagner and Elarton started out as starters... Lidge too before he got hurt in the minors.

Still, I expect Wade to make a move on Cordero or Linebrink to be the Astros closer for '08

Isn't Wade known as a bullpen tinkerer?  His history suggests that he'll continue to mix and match pieces on that part of the roster throughout the year.

[astrox]

Not sure what we can get for Scott, or what is really available to package with him, but it will be interesting to see what transpires.

Maybe Wade is willing to package Scott and Burke??

[Noe in Austin]

Did we just trade for Wily T?

No, better. IMHO.

[Noe in Austin]

I'm not big on scouting, so I have to go strictly by what I see in the stats, so I don't see what's so big about Bourne.

Okay, but you really have to watch him play to make up your mind definitely about Bourn.  I have watched him play and he's an outstanding CF in the making.  And he plays with confidence and once he finds himself regularly in the majors, he'll be well above average as a player.

You were really willing to write this deal off because of stats?

[hillbillyken]

A nice trade for mr. wade.

its not like he traded 2002-2004 lidge with his "electric" stuff, this was 2007 lidge his stuff had turned pretty "acoustic" so to get an everyday centerfielder and a top prospect was a nice piece of work.

[Noe in Austin]

I watched Bourn for three years at UH, and have been following him in the minors.    The kid can flat out get after it in CF, much better instincts than Willy T and just as fast.   He also works a lot of counts, great top of the order guy.   The only think Willy has on him is arm, and MB's arm is more than adequate.

Same here.  I've wanted the Astros to acquire Bourn for a couple of years now.  The potential for very great things defensively is now in vogue and this guy is better than Willy T IMHO (defensively).  His offensive upside over Willy T is very apparent as well.

Just watch him play for several months folks, give yourselves a huge break from trying to over-think this one.  Let the guys on the radio do that for you.

[Noe in Austin]

I'm curious why the Phil's are letting this guy go with Rowand probably not coming back.

Rowand is coming back to the Phils unless the WhiteSox make an outlandish offer to him.  Phils are prepared to pay 10 mil a year, 5 years to Rowand and he'll take that.

[MusicMan]

Just shot in the dark speculation:

What if Troy Patton (or one of our other starting prospects) gets moved to closer? If you guys remember, both Wagner and Elarton started out as starters... Lidge too before he got hurt in the minors.

Still, I expect Wade to make a move on Cordero or Linebrink to be the Astros closer for '08

1.  If you're looking for a current starter to move to the pen, look at someone like Albers.
2.  Lidge was never a serious candidate to start.
3.  Linebrink, 2007 vintage, would be a very, very bad closer.

[JGrave]

I'm glad Bourn is an Astro.

However, good luck Brad!  He was amazing for a few years and I'll never ever forget some of the games he pitched when he was just completely untouchable.  That'll be the Lights Out Lidge I remember.  '04 was unreal.  I wish him the best.  He was one of the nicest guys ever too.

[ckutac]

Did we just trade for Wily T?

We traded for a BETTER version of Willy T.

Michael Bourn has the ability to be a Juan Pierre with a better OBP, and a top flight defensive OFer.

[MusicMan]

BP (Siliver) weighs in on the deal:

Although one should maintain a healthy dose of skepticism about what Ed Wade’s tenure will mean for the Astros, the former Philly GM has gotten the better of the current one in the just-announced Brad Lidge trade.

The problem is not really with Lidge’s performance. Although he was shuffled into and out of the Astros’ closer role by a trigger-happy Phil Garner, panicking a lot his rotisserie baseball owners in the process, he came away with a 3.15 QERA and 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings. That should qualify him as one of the 30 best relievers in baseball for 2008, and quite possibly in the upper half of that group. In other words, while Lidge has undoubtedly deteriorated some from his 2004-2005 peak, that’s still a closer-worthy performance.

But Lidge will also become a free agent 11 months from now, with this year’s salary to be determined by the arbitration process. Lidge made $5.35 million last year; since salaries tend to ramp up with each year of arbitration, he can probably expect something more like $6 million this year.

What would it cost to acquire a comparable talent — say Francisco Cordero — in the free agent market? There weren’t any elite closers available in last winter’s market, although among the pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey group of pitchers with some recent closer experience, Eric Gagne made $6 million, Octavio Dotel and Keith Foulke made $5 million, and Joe Borowski made $4.25 million. Cordero will be seeking — and will probably receive — something closer to B.J. Ryan money, which should mean about $10 million per season over anywhere from 3-5 years. So the Phillies are probably getting a $4 million savings for 2008. Lidge is also solidly in the range of Type A free agents, so the Astros would also get a couple of draft picks if and when he leaves.

Is that worth giving up two good prospects in the form of Michael Bourn and Mike Costanzo? No, and it isn’t close. Costanzo is not a Grade-A prospect, but he had a very solid year in Reading, where his 27 home runs placed him second in the Eastern League. That translates to a .263 EqA in our hot-off-the-presses Davenport Translations, indicating that he could be a major league average third baseman right about now, probably along the lines of a Steve Buechele type of player, which would be very encouraging for a 24-year-old.

Bourn, meanwhile, has less upside but more locked-in value, and by all signs is poised for a 3-5 year run as a league-average center fielder. Projected by PECOTA for a .271/.346/.401 performance prior to the start of the season, he spent the entire year on the Phillies bench, essentially matching his projection with a .277/.353/.378 batting line over 119 at-bats. Although those batting numbers are superficially unimpressive, consider that the average National League center fielder posted a .273/.336/.426 batting line last year, which is highly comparable in value to Bourn’s. Bourn also accumulated 18 stolen bases in 19 attempts, a remarkable record for a player that was usually coming in cold as a pinch-runner in obvious stealing situations. Essentially, he’s the player that Juan Pierre is supposed to be.

Bourn has five more full seasons until he hits free agency, and Costanzo has six. All together, that’s 11 seasons of below-market performance that the Phillies traded away … in exchange for one season of below-market performance from Lidge.

Yes, Lidge is a good fit for the Phillies, and he’ll make them better in 2008. But the price was not right.

[Andyzipp]

Same here.  I've wanted the Astros to acquire Bourn for a couple of years now.  The potential for very great things defensively is now in vogue and this guy is better than Willy T IMHO (defensively).  His offensive upside over Willy T is very apparent as well.

Just watch him play for several months folks, give yourselves a huge break from trying to over-think this one.  Let the guys on the radio do that for you.

It's interesting that Purpura was hot after this guy, Tal tried again after Purpura was fired, and now Wade was able to pull the trigger.  Obviously the common thread is Tal, but the Astros have seen something in this guy for a while.

[Bench]

BP (Siliver) weighs in on the deal:

The fact that BP is the only publication saying the Astros made a good deal is cringe-worthy.

[Froback]

Been totally out of touch last night, so when I came in today and saw this my first reaction was, "They traded Lidge?  What did they get?"

Then I saw the actually deal, read a bit on the 3B prospect and immediately thought, "Great deal!"

This deal perfectly fits the biggest needs in position players, that being CFer, Leadoff hitter and future 3B.  I was ok with the idea of Wigginton being the 3B for 08, but viewed him as a stop-gap until something better could be found.  This Costanzo kid might just come in and be the Astros #1 position player prospect right away.  And that would be very nice considering how this was a black hole in the minor league system (3B).  So now they Astros have a potential replacement for Wigginton.  I view Costanzo as battling for the 3B job in 3B, but likely going to AAA to start the season rather than beating out Wigginton.  So big improvement there.

And then Bourn in CF, fits the other two major holes, because while Hunter wasn't terrible in CF, it was obvious that he would be better as a corner OFer.  And Bourn also fills that HUGE hole (IMO) at lead-off.  The Astros just didn't have any good candidates other than perhaps Anderson or Burke (shudder at the thought).  So this quickly helps eliminate those areas.

The loss of Lidge hurts, he was a top tier closer no matter what anyone might say.  But they do get a decent to good middle reliever to replace him.  AND they save some big bucks by not having to play him.  To me this is a big deal.

The team is still looking for starting pitching (very scarce this offseason) and is looking to improve at 2B.  I think they will also look at the closers who are FAs, which there are a few good ones to choose from.  Because of the FA options at closer are pretty good this year, I think this was the perfect time to make this move.  Now you have several good options to replace Lidge with, and if you can't land any of the good closers on the FA market, you still have Qualls to fall back on, who people have been wondering if he could be the next closer out of the Astros org.  All of this looks very good.

And while I know alot of people are seeming to be pushing for Castillo, I also look at Iguchi as being a good option.  He is also experienced in the #2 batting position.  AND if worse comes to worse and Burke is the opening day 2B.  And from all accounts he was "supposed" to be more suited for the #2 batting hole than then lead-off role.  And if you are batting in front of Berkman, Lee and Pence, chances are you are going to get better pitches to swing at.  So this also might help Burke realize the potential he "supposedly" has.  This also assumes he stops hitting flyballs and starts doing more line-drive/groundball hitting.

So all things considered this is an excellent more, and the best part is, it was done early enough to allow them to move on to the other areas more quickly.  This has often been the Astros biggest fatal flaw, waiting until the best options were gone.

I can't find anything I don't like about this deal.

[Noe in Austin]

I'm glad Bourn is an Astro.

However, good luck Brad!  He was amazing for a few years and I'll never ever forget some of the games he pitched when he was just completely untouchable.  That'll be the Lights Out Lidge I remember.  '04 was unreal.  I wish him the best.  He was one of the nicest guys ever too.

Agreed.  I loved Brad Lidge as a closer on this team, still do.  But in the world of trading in a win-win, you judge what you can reasonably replace and what you cannot.  Case in point: Last year, Tim Purpura pulled off an off-season trade that included sending off the incumbent CF in a package for a #2 starter.  It was a good deal because it filled the need on both teams.  However, Purpura did not pulled that deal without being sure of himself that Chris Burke could function as a reasonable, perhaps better replacement for Tavares.

Turned out he was wrong and that part of the deal went sour really fast.  Burke just flat out let everyone down and now faces the real possibility of being shipped out himself because he's a man without a job.  But back to this deal.  Trading away Brad Lidge means the Astros honestly feel they have the ability to either 1) sign a free agent like Dotel or Cordero or 2) go with a replacement like Qualls on the team.  What will be also good to remember is that you don't always need to make the trades now to improve your team.  You can wait until the trading deadline to make the deal you need, even for a closer if that is the missing piece to your playoff puzzle.  So if the Astros went with Qualls, pushed Albers into the pen (where I think he should be, IMHO), give Sarfate a shot, sign a reasonable left handed reliever, they can *start* the season that way and then judge whether it needs more fixing at the deadline.

Since you have that many options available to you, it's not entirely lost to me how they viewed trading away Lidge for Bourn (with Bruntlett for Geary and then having the Phils add a potential prospect third baseman!).  Bourn is going to be good for this team, a Houston native, a kid who when he plays with confidence is exciting to watch.  Not many of those kinds of kid available and thank goodness for Shane Victorinos antics in Philly, Bourn would be the starting RF for the Phils right about now.

[Noe in Austin]

The fact that BP is the only publication saying the Astros made a good deal is cringe-worthy.

The reasons that BP is giving is fringe in my mind.  I can understand a scout saying that Houston just traded away an elite closer for an unproven CF.  I can accept that, same as when Houston traded away "three minor leaguers" for the elite Randy Johnson.  Those three "minor leaguers" turned out to be:

Freddy Garcia
Carlos Guillen
Jon Halama

Read the comments by the GM at that time of the Mariners trying desperately to tell anyone who would listen that they got a really outstanding return for Randy Johnson and how no one would listen.

[Jacksonian]

Just shot in the dark speculation:

What if Troy Patton (or one of our other starting prospects) gets moved to closer? If you guys remember, both Wagner and Elarton started out as starters... Lidge too before he got hurt in the minors.

Still, I expect Wade to make a move on Cordero or Linebrink to be the Astros closer for '08

Paulino is likely headed to the bullpen long-term.  Albers could be too if he can't get control of his stuff.

Don't forget about Sarfate.  If he can continue his late season Astros and winter-ball success then he's a locked-in late innings reliever as well.

[Astroholic]

Don't forget about Sarfate. 

Thanks Timmy.

Or was that Tally?