So his ceiling is a poor man's Wade Boggs, essentially?

Very poor. More power, but the hit tool won't be nearly as good. I didn't see enough of Boggs to compare the two defensively.

Per Berman:

@MarkBermanFox26: B4 going to Pitt. Sat. #Astros owner Jim Crane says he &GM Jeff Luhnow will c a player they r considering 4 the draft. Astros own top pick

@MarkBermanFox26: Astros Jim Crane on visiting potential target for draft:"We've got a kid we're looking at today in Chapel Hill. I like to watch & observe."

I don't read this as Moran becoming a favorite, but I do think there is genuine interest. Luhnow has personally scouted around 7-8 players, so I just read this as Crane tagging along before catching a game at PNC later. With three of the candidates having pitched yesterday, Saturday is a good day to catch a college hitter. Pittsburgh to Chapel Hill isn't that bad of a flight, so there they are.

In 9 games since returning from the DL, Correa is 13 for 34 (.382) with 4 walks and 5 strikeouts (1 in his last 5 games).  After striking out 23 times in his first 17 games, he's doing a much better job making contact. It appears that he's sacrificing some power for contact (a double being the only XBH since his return), but that will come. It's good to see him making adjustments. For the season, he's now at .275/.403/.402.

Via presser: Astros will be signing a letter of intent to purchase the Hooks (no mention of the Express).

I remember Crane mentioning a while back that the club wants to own all of their affiliates.  This is a big step toward that goal.  I imagine moving the AAA team to the Woodlands would be be another step.

I suspect you are correct, but the thought is kind of scary. 

Looking at his stats, is this because he walks a lot?  Really, the Astros would use a 1-1 on someone who fits a statistical profile, much less a profile that emphasizes walks?

He has great hand-eye coordination and great strike zone judgment, which leads to the promise of a good average and OBP.  His defense has improved this season, with the consensus being that he'll be fine at 3B in the majors.  He's shown more power, but I still don't think it will be even average at the major-league level.  He reminds me of a lesser version of Dustin Ackley.  I wouldn't touch him in the top 10.  I get why they would keep an eye on him; if you really start to buy into the power potential, his worth goes up.  But, he really needs to tap into whatever reserve he has.

Keith Law (ESPN): First MLB mock draft of 2013

1. Jonathan Gray
The industry thinking is that the Astros will try to cut a deal with Gray for less than it would cost to sign Mark Appel... *** There is one hot rumor this week that has the Astros on UNC third baseman Colin Moran, one of the top statistical performers in this draft and someone likely to rate at or near the top of Houston's internal analytics.

That doesn't necessarily clash with what McTaggart wrote...

University of North Carolina third baseman Colin Moran is being scouted carefully, but he's more of a dark-horse candidate right now.

but, I would think McTaggart is more accurate.  The Cardinals have multiple guys like Moran on their big-league club (sum is bigger than the parts), but Luhnow didn't take those guys in the first round, either.  I think Moran can be a solid player, but I'd be very surprised if he went 1/1.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130516&content_id=47711686&vkey=news_hou&c_id=hou

WTHB is reporting Hip Tightness

Thanks.  Could be worse. 

Also have to remember that if we continue our "streak", we will get top pick in 14---adding Rodon to the mix might be more than a little exciting. Rodon has come down to earth a bit this year, but will still be hard to turn down next year.

The speculation on Rodon (coming from his coach) is that taking the fall off messed Rodon up.  They decided to be cautious with him after pitching in the summer and it took him a while to get going this season.  He hasn't been as dominant as last season, but he has been better recently.  It will be interesting to see how he does next season.  Tyler Beede is another name to watch for 1/1.  He turned down a 1st-round offer to go to Vanderbilt and has been great this season.  Command can still be an issue, but he has plenty of time to work on that.

McCullers left after only 1 inning tonight. Haven't heard a reason why.

That's just ridiculous. If we were to pick Gray 1/1, that's Ryan/Richard, Unit/Schilling level heat between the two. Not saying the results will be the same (or anywhere close), but having two pitchers with that kind of velocity doesn't happen very often. Would be fun to watch.

I am not saying there isn't a place for it due to maturity issues.  I am saying the reason I hear daddy's talk about it is about athletics.  The flaw with the athletic reasoning is it assumes everyone matures at the same rate.  Not necessarily true.

I wasn't accusing you of anything, and I don't know any of the parents you're referring to, so don't take what I said the wrong way.  My point was just that I'd hope parents aren't that short-sighted that they let that dictate their child's development.  As Neil said, maybe some of it is just Dad not wanting to admit that their child wasn't ready to move on. 

The flip does as well, though.  I was always a year younger than most (and nearly 2 years younger than some), so I was barely 20 when I got through college.  Always wished my parents hadn't pushed me up a grade.

Plus it's not just about athletics.  My experience is that many boys are so far behind girls developmentally, that extra year isn't a bad thing for them. 

My wife teaches Kindergarten and would probably concur.  Keeping a kid behind just for athletics is putting the emphasis in the wrong place, plus teams are beginning to look favorably on players who are young for their grade, but compete well.  Any way, there is normally a noticeable difference in maturity between a boy that is born in late July, August, or September and other kids.  Girls, it isn't as pronounced.  Sometimes, the boys will end up getting held back, but in other cases, they move on.  It will eventually even out as maturity will be based more on genetics, environmental factors, etc.   

Graduate high school is the rule.  But remember Bryce Harper took the GED after his sophomore year in HS and played JC ball for one year to become eligible for the 2010 draft. I guess the GED didn't make him eligible because it is not truly graduating.    

They can sign internationally at 16 now. 

Drew Ward is a case that can be looked at from this year, as well.  He wasn't supposed to graduate until next year, but he took steps to graduate this year.  Just graduating early didn't make him eligible for the draft, though. 

"We got an e-mail that had four different things he had to go by to be eligible," Ward's father Gregg said. "He classifies in each one of them, so all he has to do is graduate. His age was on his side because he just turned 18 and when he graduates he won't have any eligibility left."

I haven't seen what the questions were, but based on the last sentence, age and eligibility appear to be part of the formula.  MLB doesn't want this situation (or Harper's) to become commonplace, so I'm sure age does play a big factor.  To be fair, though, I don't think there will be too many 16-year old's who can dominate JuCo teams.

Roundup from last weekend:

Appel had his worst outing of the season against Oregon State (#6 in the country), lasting only 5 innings, giving up 6 runs (5 earned) on 6 hits and 5 walks, while striking out 4.  He still only has 20 walks on the season over 91 innings, so I'm not too worried about that.  But, the last time he gave up that many runs was in the Super-Regional last year, when he gave up 7.  I don't know if it's fair or not, but given how badly the Cardinals needed that win Friday, he may start developing a reputation as a guy you can't count in on the big games. 

Gray wasn't too much better, losing in his matchup against rival OK State.  He only lasted 5 innings, as well, giving up 3 runs while allowing 6 hits and 3 walks against 8 strikeouts.  The Sooners tried playing the odds by throwing him on Saturday, rather than Friday, when Cowboys ace Jason Hursh was on the hill. 

One pitcher who did help his performance was Sean Manaea.  I almost don't want to put him here, because he's been disappointing this season physically (though the numbers overall haven't been bad).  He lasted 7 innings, giving up 2 runs (1 earned) on 3 hits and 1 walk against 11 strikeouts.  On the season, his ERA sits at 1.58 with 88 strikeouts in 68 innings with 25 walks.  Showing that he could hold his velocity was important, and he did, staying in the low 90s.  It's not as impressive as the mid-90s he was running last summer, but it is a start. 

Kris Bryant did what he does best, going 8-17 over the weekend with a double, triple, and 3 homeruns, giving him 28 on the season.  He has games tonight and tomorrow and will make a run at the BBCOR record of 30 set by Victor Roache. 

I don't often have prep notes, but Clint Frazier, whose team is in the state playoffs, added 2 HR and 3 walks in a 2-game series to help his team advance.  On the season, Frazier is hitting .505/.612/1.165 with 16 HR and 44 RBI in 30 games.

On a related note, Callis was asked if there are any 80 tools in this year's draft class.  There was an 80 grade for Matt McPhearson's (Maryland HS OF) speed, though you usually see at least one player with 80 speed per draft.  Also receiving 80 grades were Gray's fastball and Bryant's power.  The physical aspect of those tools were definitely part of the grade, but the ability to use them in games is what sets them apart.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/ask-ba-which-draft-prospects-have-80-tools/

BA had an article up yesterday on the top prospects in the international draft and rumors of interested teams.  They had this to say:

The Astros, who have baseball’s biggest bonus pool at $4.9 million, are expected to spend more aggressively than they did a year ago, although they will likely spread out their money rather than splurge on one or two big signings. The Cubs, who are second at $4.6 million, will also be very active but will likely award bigger bonuses to two of their top targets and perhaps trade for even more pool space.

They were linked to the #10 player on the list, however:

Jose Herrera, c, Venezuela: The top July 2 catcher on the market is Herrera, who is represented by Felix Olivo. Herrera was teammates with Gudino on the Venezuelan team that won the 15U World Championship in August in Mexico and made the tournament all-star team. Herrera’s swing generates loft and he has good power from both sides of the plate. Some scouts aren’t sure he’ll be able to hit for a high average, but he has a good eye at the plate. A former shortstop, the 5-foot-10, 180-pound Herrera moved behind the plate last summer shortly before the World Championship, so his receiving is still a work in progress but he should be able to stick at catcher.

This is a different strategy than I thought they would take (which probably means it will work).  As deep as the system has gotten, I thought they might have taken a more aggressive approach, especially with the extra resources.  Maybe they don't see that big of a gap between the top players and the next tier, I don't know.

http://ht.ly/kZgfy

The Super Two thing isn't performance/talent based, simply number of days on the MLB roster. So I'd bet that is a consideration, although certainly giving him proper seasoning in AAA before bringing him up to an awful team seems wise regardless.

From the MLBPA:

A player with at least two but less than three years of Major League service shall be eligible for salary arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and he ranks in the top 22 percent (increased from 17 percent in previous agreements) in total service in the class of Players who have at least two but less than three years of Major League service, however accumulated, but with at least 86 days of service accumulated during the immediately preceding season.

So, it's a game of chicken until July.  Including last year, he's pitched in 14 games at AAA, so we wouldn't be rushing him in that sense.  Will he benefit from additional time at that level?  I don't know.  The combined results have been great: 2.30 ERA, 1.245 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, but I haven't seen him in person or read reports from those who have. 

If he is ready and arbitration status isn't a factor, I wouldn't hold him back just because the team is bad.  He's going to have his bumps regardless of the amount of seasoning at AAA he receives, I wouldn't hold him back just so he can take his lumps at the same time as the rest of the future core.

OKC lost last night, 9-3, but had a 3-1 lead going into the 8th.  Cosart contributed the first 6 innings, allowing 1 run on 2 hits and 3 walks against 4 strikeouts.  His ERA for the season now stands proudly at 2.08 with a WHIP of 1.13 and 9.9 K/9.  The walk rate could be better, 3.9/9, but the bump in strikeouts this season does help. 

At this point, I'm wondering what's keeping him down.  Does the club want him to cut down on the walks?  Are they concerned that he didn't pitch that many innings last season (114) and want to keep it under control (though, the MLB team has been a pretty safe place to limit innings this season)?  Surely, they don't see Gonzales as a better option at this point.

Yeah, but shouldn't MLB umpires have pretty good vision?

Yes, but so should players.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/a/19409

#2 on the list, Obispo Aybar, or shall we say Cecilio Aybar, has been barred from signing until April 26th, 2014 for using his younger brother's identity. 

For his first mock, BA's Callis' "buest guess" is that HOU will take Appel at 1.1.  Jim Callis Mock Draft 1.0

It's still very early, but what I like most about these is hearing about guys that I haven't heard a lot about, especially the HS players.  Bickford is one of those guys.  I've read the name a few times, but had no idea he could go as early as Callis is speculating.  Since there isn't as much information as the college guys, it's just harder to know whose stock is rising.

On a side note, I wonder how common the "Appel & Gray and then everyone else" line of thinking is among front offices.  I've read that once or twice recently from other sources.